EVANS & NOVAK

The President: Despite a drumbeat of complaints from his conservative base, President George W. Bush is in very good shape politically and appears clearly to have weathered the third-year blues that usually afflict a presidency.

1) The boost given to the President by the capture of Saddam Hussein cannot be exaggerated. It's already being reflected in the polls, and it changes Bush's political standing. His degree of vulnerability has been sharply decreased with Democratic taunting on failure to capture Saddam suddenly ended. Sen. Richard Durbin (D.-Ill.), the deputy floor leader for the Democrats, had taped for Chicago radio on Sunday a statement scoffing at chances for capturing Saddam.

2) The political setback of the "mission accomplished" visit to the carrier Abraham Lincoln taught the President's handlers a valuable lesson. The word was put out Sunday morning that the White House would be a "taunt-free" zone. Thus, reporters were kept out of the room for Bush's Sunday statement so that no questions could be asked, and the President was very careful in Monday's press conference.

3) This coincides with the vastly improved economic outlook that now points to a genuine upbeat for 2004. Job creation is still low, but even Democrats doubt that this can be a major issue for the next election.

4) A rumble continues inside the conservative base, accelerated by unhappiness with the prescription drug subsidy and the high-pressure tactics used in the House to pass it. The calculated judgment by the President's managers, however, is that this rumbling does not constitute a serious threat to turnout.

Iraq: The capture of the Iraqi dictator is an event of immense significance that generates enthusiasm the White House wants to hold down for political purposes (see below).

1) The impact of putting Saddam Hussein under lock and key is mainly psychological, but guerrilla warfare, itself, is in large part psychological. His removal is considered a major change in the atmosphere, not only in Iraq but throughout the region.

2) This is not expected to curtail casualties immediately, which will cause critics to attack the operation of the war. However, even though Saddam apparently was not engaged in command-and-control, the political underpinning for the guerrilla fighters now puts a long-term limit on their operations.

3) In particular, the frightened Iraqi middle class may finally make a commitment in favor of the occupying powers. The fear of names being taken to await the return of Saddam cannot be over estimated.

4) Even before Saddam's capture, there were signs of hope for the CPA (the governing authority). Eagerly awaited was the arrival from Washington of Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who is counted on to make strong organizational changes that are badly needed.

5) The major need on Iraq is to keep the American public behind the war, and Saddam's capture is of overriding importance in doing this. But officials on the scene in Iraq say there has to be organizational efficiency imposed.

Gore Endorsement: Vice President Al Gore won days of attention with his endorsement of Dean, and in the end the move is more significant for Gore than for the shape of the primary race.

1) Gore certainly has loyal supporters among the party's base, and putting his clout behind Dean is a boost for the frontrunner. Many Gore voters, not yet familiar with Dean and somewhat worried he may be too liberal, will be assured. To some extent-especially considering Gore received more votes in 2000 than any winning or losing candidate has since 1984-the endorsement makes Dean more mainstream.

2) It insults Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D.-Conn.), who was Gore's running mate in 2000, and who promised last year he would stay out of the race if Gore were to run. In this way, it detracts some from Lieberman's best selling point: He has run nationally before.

3) By the same token, it reflects poorly on Gore. It makes him look ungrateful. Also, as was typical of his campaign, he did not warn or consult friends, allies, or advisors, further alienating many of those close to him.

4) For Gore, the move is largely political positioning for himself, though some pundits are getting carried away on this point. The Machiavellian scenarios that have Gore hoping for a Democratic loss in 2004 are too clever and complex.

5) The endorsement highlights a split that had been subtle within the party. Basically, it is the Clinton team-Bill, Hillary, retired Gen. Wesley Clark and DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe-against the outsiders.

6) While this split has ideological undertones-New Democrats versus liberals-it is more about personality and patronage than ideas.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Dec 22, 2003
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