Evans & Novak

Republican: The suddenly vibrant economic prospects for next year have created a state of euphoria for Republican presidential prospects in 2004.

1) The cause of Democratic optimism and Republican concern has been the same: the economy. In private, Republicans have conceded that President George W. Bush could not win in a poor economy and Democrats have conceded that they cannot beat Bush without a poor economy.

It now appears very likely that Bush will not have to undergo the economic burden of the last two Presidents to be defeated for a second term: George Bush in '92 and Jimmy Carter in '80. Now, with a buoyant economy in prospect, it looks as though the Democrats will have to find a different issue to ride to victory in '04.

2) That issue, of course, is Iraq. Republicans are worried much more than they admit about the individual casualties that make front-page news in their hometown papers. Bringing democracy to the Iraqis is irrelevant, and progress toward that goal does not matter. What is needed is a virtual cessation of American war dead.

3) An underlying GOP worry is whether the Republican base comes out to vote. The true believers are not happy about the high level of spending in a federal government where Republicans now control all branches. The Medicare bill is not popular with the base. Social conservatives, while mollified by passage of the partial-birth abortion bill, are not happy about the tone in Washington. They now demand action on an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment, an issue many conservatives view as more pressing than abortion.

4) If Bush does not blow ahead of the Democratic pack and the popular vote is again split, he could be in trouble. As of today, he might have trouble carrying Ohio and West Virginia again. He would have trouble picking up the 2000 Democratic states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa. The attempted coup in California still seems a long shot.

Democratic: The hopes that a super-candidate would come along and beat President Bush have dissipated. Democrats will have to be content with a run-of-the-mill candidate taking advantage of Bush's weaknesses.

1) Prominent Democrats have hoped that retired Gen. Wesley Clark would emerge from total political anonymity, liberal enough to win the nomination but with enough broad-based appeal to beat Bush. That is a lot to ask of a political rookie, and Clark got off to a poor start.

Although Clark looked much better in last week's debate from Des Moines, it is very difficult to imagine how he can prevail in the nominating system now used. Clark is thought of as a vice presidential prospect or a candidate for 2008.

2) Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean appears to have a lock on the nomination if he wins in Iowa (where he leads in polls once again) and New Hampshire. He has come from nowhere with organization and a brilliant strategy, but he is regarded with fear and loathing inside the party, more for personal reasons than ideological ones.

3) The last chance to trip Dean may be in Iowa. If Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) wins there, he could forge ahead in South Carolina and Michigan. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) appears to be recovering from a slump and might be a factor if Dean loses in Iowa and he wins in South Carolina. Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) is still a possibility, but only if he upsets Dean in New Hampshire, which seems remote.

4) Democratic morale is maintained by intense dislike of Bush. The level of optimism, however, has declined with improvement in the economy.

Memos: In a major public relations coup, Senate Democrats have managed to spin the revelation of damning memos into a scandal about Republican thefts of documents.

1) The Democratic memos spelled out what most Washington insiders already knew: Filibusters of judges were being quarterbacked by liberal and pro-choice non-profits with Democratic senators taking marching orders from outside groups. After the original story in the Wall Street Journal, which ran on a Friday, the content of the memos got nearly no attention.

2) Meanwhile, the story became how the Republicans obtained the documents. Democrats had unwittingly left their files open to access by Republicans. Instead of being embarrassed, Democrats became irate about Republican acquisition of the memos.

3) Broadly, the judge battle is a standoff in trench warfare. Both sides are doing well at maintaining their respective bases, but neither is making much progress on the middle turf. The leaked or stolen memos provided the GOP with a chance to win over new supporters, had they not been handled poorly.

This special report appears exclusively in HUMAN EVENTS. For subscription information on the Evans-Novak Political Report, call 800-789-5367.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Dec 8, 2003
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