EVANS & NOVAK

Democratic: The Democratic Party appears in near-crisis mode, as issues boil to the surface about control over the party apparatus, inevitability of a Howard Dean nomination, and the electability of any Democrat.

1) Former Vermont Gov. Dean's recent outburst about his treatment by other Democrats was in response to some of the most valid criticisms to date from his primary opponents. His comments regarding UN "permission" to go to war, presuming the innocence of Osama bin Laden, and his confusing statements about Saddam Hussein's capture all place Dean outside the American mainstream.

2) Specifically, those statements bring to light one of the Democratic Party's greatest policy weaknesses: a demand for multilateralism that can appear unpatriotic and pandering to Europe. Multilateralism is not a winning political stance.

3) Dean's point-that too many attacks on him will help Bush if Dean gets the nomination (which he implies is nearly inevitable)-is valid as far that goes. However, Dean looks like a whiner by complaining about criticism while his campaign has been mostly negative.

4) The Democratic base these days is motivated primarily by negativity, and Dean looks disingenuous decrying it.

5) Dean's implication that Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe provides weak leadership manifests a split that has been becoming more apparent of late: the Beltway Democrats versus outsider Dean. This split is more personal than ideological, and it could seriously harm the party in 2004.

6) Simply the revelation of the split may be enough to sink Democratic White House chances in 2004. Dean, by his own tone, would have trouble winning moderate voters. Now, amid recent news, the image of him as outside the mainstream is magnified.

7) If Dean is beaten for the nomination, though, Dean's prophecy-that many of his supporters will stay home in November or vote for the Green Party-may fulfill itself, especially amid resentment about Dean's treatment.

8) The flap will likely neither hurt nor help Dean in any early primaries or caucuses. He is still the overwhelming favorite in New Hampshire, and he leads the polls in Iowa.

Republicans: President George W. Bush is overwhelmed by an embarrassment of riches. The usual "third year follies" of the presidency have been followed by everything falling in place, if only too early.

1) In the (ultimately meaningless) speculation about how the election would turn out if it were held today, there is no doubt that Bush would be reelected comfortably, no matter whom the Democrats nominate. That really doesn't mean all that much, but it is better news for the GOP than seemed possible less than two months ago.

2) The turmoil of the Democrats' Dean phenomenon plays into the GOP grand design. Republicans see in Dean another plunge to the left that ignores the realities of American politics.

3) The concern by Republican managers is no longer the economy but bad news from the war on terrorism: a) terrorist event inside the U.S. over which the Bush Administration would have little control; or b) continued U.S. bloodshed in Iraq (see below).

4) On the negative side for Republicans, hopes are dim for an electoral coup by capturing California for Bush in the wake of the dramatic and unexpected victory by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). Bush trails badly against a generic Democrat, despite Schwarzenegger's continued strength in the polls.

Iraq: Although the capture of Saddam Hussein has proved a windfall in domestic politics, problems persist in abundance.

1) Just as intelligence foretold, the first impact of Saddam's removal has been an increase in guerrilla activity (targeted so effectively that five American troopers were killed on Christmas day).

2) However, long-term benefits are expected to flow from the absence of the Iraqi dictator as a symbol for guerrilla fighters. It will be a long, difficult struggle, but the manifestations of legitimacy have been totally stripped away. The war's momentum is no longer with the former Iraqi regime.

3) Meanwhile, U.S. officials in Baghdad are upset over the delay in contract proposals by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), which had been intended to award contracts by Feb. 1, 2004, from the $18.7 billion appropriated by Congress.

4) The delay is tied to Special Envoy James Baker's mission for Iraqi debt relief. Baker has insisted that the ban on contracts to non-Coalition nations (especially France, Germany and Russia) be lifted in order to get their cooperation on debt and much more. The hope is that there will be foreign troops augmenting U.S. forces in return for a piece of the contract action.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Jan 12, 2004
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