EVANS & NOVAK

Outlook: The ongoing Iraqi prisoner crisis finally brought down the Bush house of cards, at least temporarily.

1) It is not that President Bush made any single mistake in the last two weeks. Coming on the heels of the barrage of anti-Bush kiss-and-tell books and the escalation of the violent insurgency in Iraq, the abuse of prisoners was just too much.

2) Bush's rapid descent in the polls shows the volatility of the presidential situation. While Bush clearly lacks the personal popularity needed to overcome times of troubles, he is not sufficiently unpopular with enough people to be in the same category that his father was at this time.

3) Republican strategists are rejoicing that Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.) has not pulled far ahead of Bush despite the President's miseries, and Democrats are more worried about his performance so far than they publicly admit. The Democratic line is that Kerry is a slow starter-as witness his 1996 Senate re-election campaign and his primary campaign this year-and that he will do better as the country really gets to know him.

4) Kerry insiders privately concede that his current spurt is almost entirely due to Bush's misfortunes and cannot be considered permanent. They are delighted, however, that Bush's big television buy of $70 million in anti-Kerry television has done him no permanent damage.

Democratic Vice President: This is an old case of those who know don't talk and those who talk don't know. All the reports of a quick decision by Kerry proved totally incorrect.

1) Senator Kerry appears to have lost interest in hauling down the big prize of 24 Florida delegates by picking one of the state's two Senators-Bob Graham and Bill Nelson. Whether either would be decisive in carrying the state is dubious, and neither appears to be a good fit for Kerry.

2) The best guess in the political community is currently Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.). That would please organized labor, but it is hard to find what he brings to the ticket. The gap between Gephardt and Kerry on trade and taxes is significant. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who fancies himself an independent force in the party, considers Gephardt a catastrophe and will do his best to convince Kerry of that.

3) Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) is first choice among the news media, but it is questionable whether he can swing any Southern states-including his own North Carolina-to Kerry. Ideologically, he may be closer to Kerry than Gephardt is.

Iraq: The deterioration of the U.S. position is the principal cause of President Bush's political difficulties.

1) The prisoner scandal is the biggest problem. There is a strong feeling in Republican ranks that somebody must be sacked-above the rank of staff sergeant or even above a reserve general. There would be an abundance of dry eyes on Capitol Hill if Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is the fall guy.

2) At the Pentagon, there is considerable concern of how deep the investigation will go into the bureaucracy. Congressional investigators may try to find a link between the scandal and Stephen Cambone, the controversial Under Secretary for Intelligence.

3) There is little feeling that the June 30 handover will end U.S. woes. While Secretary of State Colin Powell says (he U.S. will leave then if the new Iraqi government asks them to, that simply won't happen and there will be no quick exit.

Electoral College: Sen. Kerry makes huge gains, moving ahead in polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania among others. Troubles in Iraq have spelt a bad month for President Bush, and it has finally caught up with him. If the election were held today, Kerry would win big. Kerry 325, Bush 213

Vermont: Democrats appear to have settled on a perfect candidate to challenge first-term Gov. Jim Douglas (R.). Burlington Mayor Peter Clavelle (D.), a leader in the state's far-left Progressive Party could oust Douglas.

Douglas won in 2002 only after the state legislature voted him in following his plurality in the November election. Clavelle should be able to win much of the third-party voters with his Progressive Party pedigree and the galvanizing effect President Bush's presidency is having on the American Left.

Still, two minor party candidates are planning to run.

A poll last month showed Douglas leading the challenger by 14 points, but hovering just beneath the 50% mark. Clavelle's name identification was relatively high for a challenger at 76%, giving him less room to climb.

This special report appears exclusively in HUMAN EVENTS. For subscription information on the Evans-Novak Political Report, call 800-789-5367.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. May 24, 2004
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