EVANS & NOVAK

GOP on Edge in Virginia

Former Arty. Gen. Jerry Kilgore (R.) has faded badly. A race he was supposed to win has now in late October drawn to its closest point. The candidates are taking the lead back and forth from each other in internal tracking polls, and Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D.) is finally showing a very slight lead in one public poll. Far more important, however, is the fact that Kaine has climbed from so far behind to make it a tie, and he has survived the worst of Kilgore's attacks pretty well. Kilgore has simply let this race get too close, prompting us to shift it to the Kaine column this week.

1 ) Virginia Republicans are blaming the national party's woes for Kilgore's poor performance, but this explanation is pretty hard to swallow. President Bush figures even less in this race than he does in the New Jersey governor's race. Moreover, the two down-ticket races for attorney general and lieutenant governor may well go to the GOP candidates (Bob McDonnell and Bill Boiling) even if Kilgore loses. This is a local race between two local candidates, and it focuses on local issues such as transportation funding, illegal alien day laborers and state taxes.

2) Kaine bested Kilgore in the debates. Despite having plenty of time to prepare, Kilgore fumbled on the identical abortion question in two consecutive debates, refusing to take a position on the criminalization of abortion. This is a big mistake because it will gain him little support, and it also raises unnecessary suspicions about him on the right.

3) Kilgore was running two scathing, negative ads on Kaine's opposition to the death penalty, which have gotten mixed reviews and do not appear to have depressed Kaine's support (although perhaps they blunted his earlier momentum and stopped him from seizing a significant lead). Kilgore has now returned mostly to positive ads, whereas Kaine's current ad is still blasting Kilgore, characterizing the earlier attacks as dishonest. New Kilgore ads will feature the state's two Republican senators. George Alien and John Warner. It is especially important for Alien that Kilgore win, because it protects his rear when he runs for President in 2008.

4) Virginia is still a Republican state, and the Republicans here showed last year that they can run a superior ground game. But Kilgore is looking pretty bad right now and needs to get a foothold before Election Day. Leaning Democratic Retention.

Corzine Stumbles in NJ.

Sen. Jon Corzine (D.), running for New Jersey governor, appears to be slipping in the final weeks of a tough race against businessman and former West Windsor Mayor Doug Forrester (R.).

1 ) Despite enormous personal expenditures and a huge built-in advantage as a Democrat in a Democratic state, Corzine stands much closer than he would like to losing an un-losable election to a mediocre candidate. Corzine did the same in 2000 when he spent $63 million of his own fortune to beat Rep. Bob Franks (R.) by only 3%.

2) Ever since Corzine began his campaign, his polling has been stuck in the mid-to-high 40s. This is particularly bad because his universal name recognition makes him, for practical purposes, the incumbent.

3) Corzine has also taken a gamble by throwing his weight around in the state party. He recently crossed the Bergen County Democratic machine by forcing the party committee, against members' wishes, to fill a vacant state Senate seat with his own handpicked female candidate. Likewise, in Monmouth, the state's fastest-growing county, Corzine tried to force the party chairman to resign. These are just two incidents reflective of tension between Corzine and the local parties.

4) Corzine's failure to build support throughout the race has been balanced out only by Forrester's weakness as a candidate. Despite the fact that 65% of New Jerseyans believe their state is moving in the wrong direction, Forrester, the Republicans' unsuccessful 2002 Senate candidate, has not taken the upper hand against the existing Democratic regime.

5) A Forrester victory here remains unlikely but certainly not impossible. His best issue is his plan to cut the state's high property taxes. In his favor, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R.)-wildly popular in these parts-has come out swinging for him, vowing to do "everything he can" to elect Forrester. Leaning Democratic Retention.

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Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Oct 31, 2005
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