It never rains ...

TORRENTIAL rain throughout last autumn and winter has raised the water table to critical levels. For those of us who have forgotten geography lessons, the water table is the land-based equivalent of sea level - the distance beneath the surface where we strike water.

However, it is now so near to the surface in many areas that a couple of good downpours - or in some cases only one - will be sufficient to cause widespread and serious flooding again.

The most worrying point is that this appears not to be just a temporary freak of nature but the latest stage in a long-term, and accelerating, trend.

Water levels - beneath land and at sea - are rising. But how fast? And with what consequences?

The climate

Figures vary widely, and that in itself gives cause for concern. The more extreme forecasts say that sea levels could rise by as much as 26 inches (66 centimetres) over the next 50 years. But, of course, this will not all happen at once. In five years' time levels will be higher than today. The one consistent factor through all the research is that levels are definitely on the way up.

Location

A report from the Association of British Insurers (ABI) estimates that up to 1.2 million properties in the UK are at risk from inland flooding, that equates to 4% of total building stock. London has the largest The ABI is starting to put up its own defences. It has stated that The insurers exposure with between 70,000 and 100,000 properties. For these the risk of flooding is greater than fire.

The insurers

The ABI is starting to put up its own defences. It has stated that insurers wish to provide affordable cover against weather-related risks. However, if floods and storms become more frequent and severe, insurers say action needs to be taken now to ensure the industry can continue to provide the service it currently does.

Mary Francis, director general of the ABI, says: "Insurers are committed to providing affordable cover against weather-related risks, such as flood, provided there are adequate investment and controls in vulnerable areas.

"If floods become more common, the Government must play its part in providing adequate flood defences and enforcing planning controls."

In short, the ABI wants its members to assess and insure risk, not certainty. Not only will premiums rise in some cases, but insurance companies will not want to underwrite again the same properties affected recently unless they have cast iron assurances that anti- flood precuations are in place.

The mortgage problem

This is a before-and-after problem.

Lenders may soon refuse to lend on properties at risk - even with flood cover in place. On the other hand, if there is an existing mortgage on a flooded property there will be no immediate effect as the problem lies with the borrower.

In this case, it may turn out to be similar to permanent negative equity as it will be extremely difficult to sell and you will still owe your lender the money.

Options for householders

Perceptive householders may suffer a crisis of confidence. They will seriously consider location and subsequently take action to protect one of their most important assets. The cliche "location, location, location" has long sounded in housebuyers' ears. Now, long- term flooding risk has added further criteria to the selection process. The simple message is - do additional homework before buying in potential flood areas, and if you are in one, move while you can.

A question of time

The main question is the point at which the true scale of the problem will enter the public domain.

Clearly, there will be some areas where this is taking place already, but for a large number of householders, whose property is currently only under threat in the longer-term, that perception has yet to materialise. However, it won't take 50 years. When the scale of the threat is fully realised, threatened property values will fall, perhaps never to rise again.

Flood defences

At present, 300 million is spent each year by all operating authorities in building and maintaining inland flood defences. Views on the necessary expenditure range from 600 million to 1 billion a year.

The biggest criticism is that flood defences are a long-term investment but the relevant authorities only review expenditure annually.

The physical problem

Approximately 8% of land in England is at risk from flooding. There are 12,000 miles of flood defences in Britain, and a recent survey showed 43% of structures and 36% of linear barriers categorised at the low end of the quality scale. Hardly music to the ears of anyone planning to move to an unfamiliar area.

The future

Dr Geoff Mance of the Environment Agency says: "Pressure to build new houses could add more than 300,000 new homes to those already at risk from flooding."

Mad as it may seem after the experience of last winter, Dr Mance points out: "Approximately 10% of planning applications are for sites on flood plains."

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