SNP on track to gain most votes but still lose to Labour at election

THE SNP is on track to win the most votes in the next election but to lose to Labour in the number of seats they win, threatening a constitutional crisis for devolution at only its second election.

The warning has come from Scotland's leading electoral expert, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, based on polls published in the past 10 days which show a trend that he says ought to be worrying Labour.

The polls paint a bleak pre-election picture for the Executive, particularly on policies that matter to Labour. New statistics reveal that hospital waiting lists and times are getting worse, that improvements in poor school attainment levels have stalled, and that the number of people living in poverty in Scotland has gone up since Labour was elected in 1997.

The most recent opinion survey, by NFO-System Three for the Herald, published last week, showed the SNP to be only 3% behind Labour on the first (constituency) vote for the Scottish parliament.

It showed the two leading parties to be only two points adrift on the second (party) vote, designed to correct imbalances in constituency representation.

The main explanation for the trend over the past year towards a closed gap is not that the SNP is doing better but that Labour's support is falling and support for the LibDems and the SSP is increasing.

But Curtice says it is not good enough for the SNP simply to beat Labour on votes if it is to win enough seats to lead an administration. Because of Labour's strength in west central Scotland, the SNP has to out-vote its main rival by a wide margin to win more seats.

He said: "If the SNP come ahead of Labour on the list vote, cast for the preferred party, there will be questions of where Labour's mandate is and what right it has to be in office. The challenge to Labour's authority in Scotland, were the SNP to come first in both votes, would be very significant. I'm not sure Labour is aware of the danger."

The latest statistics reveal:

lPoverty: A damning report just released by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Monitoring Poverty And Social Exclusion In Scotland, showed that the number of people living in poverty has risen since the party came to power in 1997.

A low-income household is defined as living below 60% of the median household income. The figures show 310,000 children living in such households - unchanged in the past five years, compared to a decline in the rest of Britain.

A summary of 34 findings, ranging from people on long-term benefits to those on low pay and in homeless families, showed there was improvement in only seven areas, with six worsening and 15 remaining steady. The report revealed the gap between rich and poor had widened by 3% in the three years after Labour came to power.

lHealth: NHS quarterly figures showed hospital waiting lists to be the worst since Labour came to power in Scotland. The number of patients awaiting treatment at the end of September was 82,359, an increase of 3% on June.

lSchools: Executive figures showed just over 50% of second-year secondary pupils have not mastered basic writing levels. The figures reveal 41% and 46% respectively failing to reach the minimum standard in reading and mathematics.

lTruancy: Figures were down but still far short of the one-third reduction ministers had promised. On average, each primary pupil missed half a day of school last year through truancy, while secondary school students missed an average of three days school.

Copyright 2002 SMG Sunday Newspapers Ltd.
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