ICO: Global coffee production could fall 16% in 2004 - Brief Article

Global coffee production will fall as much as 16 percent during the next crop year on lower output from Brazil, the world's biggest grower, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO).

Coffee output in the crop year ending April 2004 will drop to between 100.1 million and 102.4 million bags from 119.36 million this year, the London-based organization said in its monthly report. That signals production may surpass demand by between 8 and 13 million bags, the ICO said.

An estimated drop in Brazilian output of as much as 43 percent "could signify a considerable reduction in world production in 2003/2004 since many other exporting countries are experiencing difficulties in their coffee sectors," the ICO said.

Brazil is slashing production and buying beans from farmers to help support world coffee prices, which have collapsed to their lowest level in 30 years. Global production has risen an average of 3.6 percent a year as growth in demand slows because of changing consumer tastes and sluggish economies.

The ICO last month predicted a 2004 harvest of between 98 and 102 million bags. It narrowed its estimate after Brazil said earlier this month that it raised its output forecast for 2004 to as much as 30.1 million bags from 27.7 million bags predicted in December.

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