文章基本信息

标题：GDP growth rate to hit over 7% in 2004, says IMF
期刊名称：Emerging Markets Economy
出版年度：2004
卷号：Jun 27, 2004
出版社：International Finance Corporation

GDP growth rate to hit over 7% in 2004, says IMF

The economic situation in Russia continues to improve and the short-term outlook is favorable, the IMF reported on Thursday. GDP growth is high, real incomes and employment are rising, and key social indicators are improving.

Growth is becoming broader based across sectors and better balanced, with contributions from all main components of demand. The increase in investment outside the oil and gas sectors is particularly encouraging. The strength of growth continues to hinge crucially on the favorable external environment, notably high oil prices, but the rise in investment has also been due to political stability, generally sound macroeconomic policies, and some structural reforms, suggesting that GDP is deriving strength from domestic developments as well.

With oil prices likely to remain relatively high and the new government committed to structural reforms, the short-term outlook for GDP is good. The IMF believes that real GDP will grow by 7 percent in 2004-as in 2003-slowing only marginally to 6 percent in 2005, mainly owing to somewhat lower oil prices.