Jeans' popularity wearing thin; but discounters find a silver lining

Jeans' Popularity Wearing Thin

But Discounters Find a Silver Lining

While jeans remain at the forefront of American consumers' wardrobes, there are signs that the overall popularity of the venerable sportswear staple is on the downhill side. Luckily for discounters, those consumers who still wear jeans often tend to be discount store shoppers.

According to a DSN-commissioned national survey of American consumers, more than one in three American adults--36 percent--is wearing jeans less often today than three years ago. Just 29 percent are wearing them more often and 28 percent have made no change in their jeans-wearing habits (7 percent didn't answer).

The news for discount department stores, however, is not so gloomy. Among consumers who said they plan to buy their next pair of jeans at discounters, 39 percent are wearing jeans more often today than three years ago; 30 percent have not changed their frequency of wearing jeans, and 28 percent are wearing them less frequently.

In contrast, among consumers who said they wouldn't buy jeans at a discounter, 37 percent are wearing them less often, 28 percent the same and 27 percent more often.

This means that there is a greater willingness to purchase jeans at discounters among the most important consumer group--that which is wearing jeans more often. The fact that discount stores are less likely to be considered as an outlet for jeans among consumers who are wearing them less frequently--even though it's a larger group of consumers--shouldn't be that troubling.

Additionally, consumers who said they would buy jeans at a discount store have bought 5.4 jeans, on average, in the past two years, compared with 4.7 pairs among those who would go to another outlet.

These findings are compiled from phone interviews conducted in June by Chicago-based Leo J. Shapiro and Associates, with a national sample of 450 households, alternating between the man and woman of the home.

The survey also revealed that jeans manufacturers are losing women as a consumer group rather than men. Seventy-two percent of the men said they are wearing jeans either more frequently or as frequently as they did three years ago, while just 44 percent of the women answered the same way. Almost half the women--48 percent--said they are wearing jeans less frequently.

Two in three consumers have purchased an average of five pairs of jeans for themselves in the past two years, while two in five said they "definitely" will purchase a pair of jeans over the next 12 months; 26 percent said "maybe" and 25 percent said "definitely not."

Yet, once again, discounters were higher on the list of the consumer group that answered "definitely." Among consumers who would buy their next pair of jeans at a discounter, 50 percent said they would "definitely" be purchasing a pair within the next 12 months. By contrast, among consumers who said they would not buy their next pair of jeans at a discounter, just 43 percent said they would "definitely" buy a new pair in the next year.

Not surprisingly, the survey revealed that the majority of jeans wearers are "baby boomers" or younger, and that the 45-year-old and older age group is wearing jeans less frequently today compared to three years ago than the under-45 group.

However, survey results indicate that the jeans market may be expanding as the jeans wearer ages. Fourty-four percent of adults age 45 and over have purchased an average of 4.4 pairs of jeans for themselves in the past two years. That isn't a great deal lower than the 5.1 pairs purchased by the under-45 set.

While there is some overall slippage in potential future demand for jeans, discount stores are as top-of-mind as any other outlet as far as consumers are concerned. When asked where they would go if they wanted to buy a new pair of jeans for themselves, 21 percent of American adults said they would go to a discount department store; 22 percent said a specialty clothing store, 19 percent said a national merchandiser (Sears, Penney and Ward) and 20 percent of the respondents said a traditional department store.

However, the discount store (25 percent)--and the mass merchandiser (25 percent)--comes to mind more often than the department store (15 percent) or the specialty apparel store (15 percent) when it comes to buying jeans for children.

Yet parents are less likely to be buying jeans for their children than themselves over the next 12 months, according to the survey.

When asked "what are the chances that you may be buying jeans for a child in the coming 12 months?" only 35 percent said "definitely," while 45 percent said "definitely" when asked about buying jeans for themselves.

Further breaking out the responses to "which store would you be most likely to go to if you were going to buy some jeans for yourself?" 8.7 percent named K mart. Sears, named by 9.9 percent, was the only chain to top K mart. JCPenney got 6.8 percent of the responses, and The Gap edged out Wal-Mart, 4.5 percent to 4.1 percent.

Of those who said they would buy their next pair of jeans at a discounter, K mart--42.2 percent--was named by more than double the number of people who named Wal-Mart--19.8 percent. Next was Target at 7.1 percent, followed by Hills at 3.8 percent.

The Power of Brands

The power of brands remains very strong in this category. When asked if "you have a specific brand in mind that you would want?" almost three in four--71 percent--said "yes."

Of that group, Levi's (34.2 percent) was named by almost triple the number of those who named Lee (11.6 percent), the second most popular jeans brand. Going down the brand preference list--Wrangler (9.1), Guess? (3.9), Jordache (3.2), Chic (2.5), Gitano (2.0), Calvin Klein (1.9), Sears Brand/Toughskins (1.3) and Rustler (1.3).

Among those who would buy their jeans at a discounter, however, Levi's isn't as popular (29.4 percent), though it's still the No. 1 choice. Wrangler (18.4) skyrockets beyond Lee (14.8), and Chic (6.3), Rustler (5.3) and Gitano (3.5) increase as well. Guess? and Calvin, of course, aren't even considered among the discount store shopping set, and Jordache (1.1) by hardly anyone.

Adults are far less brand-conscious when it comes to buying jeans for their children, however. Only slightly more than half (56 percent) said they had a particular brand in mind when shopping for jeans for a child under 14. The brand rankings among those who also would shop at a discounter are--Levi's (22.3 percent), Lee (13.0), Wrangler (10.1) and Rustler (2.5).

As to price and style, the traditional view of the discount shopper expecting to pay less and wanting less fashion is reinforced by the survey's findings. Also not surprisingly, the under-45 woman is the most fashion-conscious customer.

While $24.80 is the average price respondents said they "would expect to pay to get the jeans that you want," the consumer group that said it would buy the jeans at a discounter expects to pay just $19.20, on average.

Also, not surprisingly, among consumers shopping at all outlets, women expect to pay more ($26.80) than men ($22.90), on average, and the under-45 set expects to pay more ($26.40) than the over-45 group ($22.20).

When it comes to washings and finishings, discount store shoppers want "regular denim" (63 percent) over "prewashed jeans" (35 percent) by almost three to one. This contrasts sharply with those who said they would not shop at a discounter--those actually favored prewashed (45 percent) over regular (44 percent).

However, among shoppers of all outlets, more than half (52.5) of those under 45 wanted prewashed, and almost half (49.4) of all women wanted prewashed.

One in three discount store shoppers said they would want a "faded" or "stonewashed" look to their jeans. Interestingly, the difference between discount store shoppers and non-discount store shoppers wanting or not wanting a faded look was less pronounced than when it came to regular or washed. More than half (51.2 percent) of those who said they would not shop at a discounter also preferred no faded or stonewashed look.

Again, slightly more than half of the under-45 set said they did want a faded or stonewashed look, and more women than men (43 percent vs. 34 percent) wanted the faded look.

PHOTO : Jeans at Hypermart USA, Dallas: The market for jeans has matured, but a larger percentage

PHOTO : of shoppers are looking for the basic commodity at discount stores.

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