Most local school districts face declining enrollment

A decline in the birthrate coupled with a flat economy will mean fewer students in many Washington state classrooms when school starts later this month.

Spokane School District 81, the state's third-largest district, expects 2,000 fewer students in the next five years. Others in the area, including East and West Valley school districts, also expect a drop in enrollment.

Enrollment for Seattle Public Schools has dropped by about 700 students in the last two years, according to statistics from the Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Fewer kids in school mean fewer state dollars for local districts - roughly $4,100 per full-time student. That translates into less money to pay costly utility bills and other expenses. It could also force some districts to cut their supply budgets and even lay off support staff.

"When you lose students, you lose money," said Mark Anderson, District 81's associate superintendent for management services. "It's not as simple as cutting your expenditures."

For the first time in a decade, District 81's population will dip below 30,000 full-time students this fall.

Enrollment during the 2000-2001 school year was 30,126 - 402 students fewer than the year before. This fall, the district expects 29,675. And in five years, that total is projected to drop to 28,130.

The steady decline "won't change unless there's a boom in Spokane's economy or people start moving into the area," said Ned Hammond, District 81's director of capital projects and planning.

Hammond, who's been projecting enrollment for the past 25 years, attributes the steady decrease to demographics.

"We're in a period of time where there are fewer people of child- bearing age and fewer who are having kids," he said.

The same sort of decline happened in the '80s, he said, followed by an increase in the '90s.

Elementary schools will be affected the most, Hammond said. Last year's 2,500 sixth-graders in District 81 will be replaced by only 2,100 kindergarteners, he said.

Statewide, public schools have seen a slight increase in enrollment, but the growth in the last three years has been less than 1 percent, according to OSPI statistics. This past year, the increase was 0.1 percent.

Central Valley School District is an exception to the trend.

Development in the Liberty Lake area has helped bring in at least 100 new students each year to Central Valley, officials said. Enrollment this past year was 10,517 - almost a 1 percent increase from the previous school year.

"What we've seen is a shift in population from the west to the east," said Jan Hutton, Central Valley's director of business services.

Despite predictions of steady enrollment growth, the district remains conservative with its budget in case the new students don't show up in the fall, Hutton said.

That's what happened in 1999 in East Valley School District when enrollment projections at the high school fell short by 73 students. The district had to make up for more than $250,000 in state money by cutting travel, printing and other expenses.

This fall, the East Valley School District expects about 160 fewer students, and West Valley expects 25 fewer.

The Mead School District will likely get about 119 more kids for the 2001-02 school year, but more than half are home-schooled kids who will enter the system thanks to a new alternative program.

The expected implementation of the Growth Management Act will restrict suburban housing developments in areas like Mead, said Al Swanson, assistant superintendent of finance. So despite the added enrollment this fall, Mead expects little or no growth in the coming years, he said.

Projections also show that Cheney School District will likely lose several hundred of its 3,400 students in the next decade, said Superintendent Phil Snowdon.

"It's nothing we can't accommodate through attrition and retirements," Snowdon said.

Despite the loss of state funds, District 81 and other districts don't expect to lay off teachers, thanks to retirements and voter- approved Initiative 728.

Designed to reduce class size, I-728 gave school districts additional money to hire new teachers.

The problem will be finding money for staff, Anderson said.

"The money for support services isn't there so we have more teachers but still less resources," he said.

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