Vancouver is leader in bid for '10 Games

PRAGUE, Czech Republic -- The vote is supposed to be for the 2010 Winter Olympics. Yet it may have more to do with a bigger prize -- the 2012 Summer Games.

With geography, politics and technical merit on its side, Vancouver is the favorite as the IOC prepares to select the 2010 host city Wednesday during weeklong meetings in the Czech capital.

The scenic British Columbia coastal city is competing against bids from Salzburg, Austria and Pyeongchang, South Korea.

After a low-key, controversy-free campaign, Vancouver looks in strong position to bring the Olympics back to Canada for the first time since the Winter Games in Calgary in 1988.

"The word I'm getting is that it's Vancouver's to lose," British IOC member Craig Reedie said in a comment echoed by several other delegates in interviews.

Vancouver is considered a top quality bid in its own right. But it has another key advantage: Many IOC members may be voting with 2012 in mind.

New York and several leading European cities -- including Paris, London, Madrid and Moscow -- have already declared their 2012 candidacies. That vote will be held in 2005.

"I've never seen a lineup of first-class cities to compare with 2012, and that must be in the mind of anybody voting for 2010," IOC vice president Kevan Gosper said.

While there is no written rule for geographic rotation, the IOC tends to spread the Olympics around.

After two in Europe (2004 Summer Games in Athens, Greece, and 2006 Winter Games in Turin, Italy) and one in Asia (2008 Summer Games in Beijing), North America is perfectly placed for 2010.

Europeans -- who dominate the IOC's 100-plus membership -- might be expected to support Salzburg's bid. However, awarding the games to Vancouver would make Europe the favorite for 2012 -- at the expense of New York.

"2012 is always in the background," Israeli member Alex Gilady said. "This is a dream team of the biggest, most glamorous bidding cities we've ever had. It's part of the positioning now."

IOC president Jacques Rogge this week played down any possible continental tradeoff, but said, "When quality is equal, it could be a small factor."

Dick Pound, a senior IOC member from Canada, said geopolitics should be a big factor in Vancouver's favor.

"With four European capital cities in the hunt for 2012, you've got to make sure you are not strengthening any bid that comes from New York or Toronto by having three of the previous games in Europe," he said. "But you don't give anything up by going to Vancouver. I think it's the best bid anyway."

If Vancouver loses, Canada will enter Toronto as a 2012 candidate. Toronto, which lost bids for the 1996 and 2008 games, would be a strong North American challenger for New York.

Other declared contenders for 2012 include Leipzig, Germany; Istanbul, Turkey, and Havana, Cuba. Brazil plans to enter either Rio de Janeiro or Sao Paulo.

New York bid officials dismiss the impact of the 2010 vote on their 2012 chances. They point out the IOC put three games in a row in Europe (Winter Games in Albertville, France, 1992; Summer Games in Barcelona, Spain, 1992; and Winter Games in Lillehammer, Norway, 1994), as well as back-to-back Olympics in 2004-06 (Athens and Turin).

"We assume the IOC will pick the city that it believes is the most qualified," said Dan Doctoroff, New York's deputy mayor and bid leader, who will be in Prague as an observer. "We'll go ahead and compete on the merits for 2012. We are just eager to get started on the official process. We will be interested observers, not ones with a rooting interest."

And if Vancouver wins?

"On balance it doesn't affect our chances a lot one way or the other," he said in a telephone interview. "We still have to go out and do a great job demonstrating we have a great plan."

An IOC evaluation report released last month said all three 2010 candidates could stage "very good" games. While the report did not rank the cities, Vancouver received the best overall review.

With members prohibited from visiting bid cities since the Salt Lake City bribery scandal, the evaluation report carries more weight in the decision-making process.

Vancouver's proposed "Sea to Sky Games" calls for ice sports and other events to take place in the city of 2 million, with Alpine skiing and other snow sports to be held 90 miles to the north in the popular Whistler ski resort.

Previous concerns over the highway connecting the two sites have been largely alleviated. The provincial government has pledged $400 million to upgrade the road by widening most of it to at least three lanes.

All three bid cities will make final presentations to the IOC on the day of the vote. Vancouver's lineup includes Prime Minister Jean Chretien and NHL great Wayne Gretzky.

"The expectation is so high, and there is a thirst for a win," bid chairman Jack Poole told the Vancouver Sun. "Canada needs a win. We've been hit by softwood lumber dispute, SARS, mad cow disease, West Nile (virus), and now the (dollar) exchange rate. We need a win to stand tall."

Salzburg faces one big hurdle -- the 2006 games will be held less than 370 miles away in Italy. But it boasts of its winter sports tradition and world-class venues, including the famed Hahnenkamm downhill course at Kitzbuehel, as well as its reputation for culture and music -- the birthplace of Mozart.

"From Mozart to Hermann Maier, we offer the very best of both worlds," said bid chief Egon Winkler.

Pyeongchang is the least known of the candidates but has lobbied aggressively to get its message across. Bid officials say the Olympics would promote winter sports in Asia (the Winter Games have never been held in an Asian country other than Japan) and bring peace and reconciliation to the divided Korean peninsula.

"We are appealing to the IOC: 'Please try something different and find hidden treasures," said bid chairman Gong Ro-myung, a former South Korean foreign minister.

Allegations that North Korea is developing nuclear weapons haven't helped Pyeongchang's cause. Also, after Beijing in 2008, getting the Olympics again in Asia two years later could be too much to ask.

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