Who'll take checkered flag? Race begins

Wilson: Like a rare solar eclipse, there are times in politics that come together like a cosmic occurrence. The juices run and pundits get up early in the morning to scan the dailies looking for the latest hot information. Such a time is upon us. Ladies and gentlemen, "Start your campaigns!" Utah's 2004 gubernatorial election is shaping up to generate the heat and furor of an Indy 500.

The 2004 gubernatorial campaign is especially significant because we have a real Democratic candidate and a very competitive race. And we have an incumbent governor who may be able to smash all records of office longevity. And we have a host of heavy-hitter Republican challengers who are well-financed and have strong credentials.

For Republicans, Utah's single ruling party, winning the nomination among so many big-time candidates is going to be a tough, expensive and exhausting battle. The entry of former Attorney General Paul Van Dam into the Democratic race gives Scott Matheson Jr. some competition, although Democrats tend to rally around the best candidate.

Because we think the gubernatorial race is going to be a great spectator sport, we're going to periodically rate the candidates on what chances we think they have of winning. It's very early in the process, of course, and our ratings are entirely subjective, are not based on any research or polling and really don't mean much. Campaign momentum ebbs and flows, and a candidate who is down today might be on top tomorrow.

We will rate candidates from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning a candidate has no chance of winning and 10 signifying a sure winner. Here are our guesses as of today:

Republicans

Mike Leavitt

Wilson: 7. The only thing that could stop him from a fourth term is that we are tired of him.

Webb: 9. If he runs. But I don't think he'll run.

Marty Stephens

Wilson: 5. The best prepared campaign to date; but even so Stephens is a bit stiff and hasn't yet learned to use his present position as House speaker to advance himself politically.

Webb: 6. Stephens doesn't have the style or presence of some of the other candidates, but he's smart, going for it, and has a lot of interaction with delegates.

Nolan Karras

Wilson: 5. Finally, he is running. Karras enjoys great respect for his work as a former legislator and Olympic executive. Will have some heavy hitters backing him.

Webb: 4. If Karras convinces me he's absolutely in it, going for broke, has fire in the belly and is aggressively raising money, then he jumps up several notches, probably ahead of everyone but Leavitt. But I'm not sure he's there yet. I still hear mixed signals from his camp. Is he in, or is he "not out?"

Gary Herbert

Wilson: 3. Herbert is a strong and pleasing personality. His biggest problem is a narrow base coming out of the Utah County Commission.

Webb: 4. Herbert could be a sleeper. He's raised a pretty good chunk of money and has a base of support among local government leaders. He's content to be the underdog, for now.

Jon Huntsman Jr.

Wilson: 4. Smooth and smart but yet to be proven, Huntsman has done his work as a diplomat abroad while living in the shadow of his famous father. No worry about finances.

Webb: 5. On paper, Huntsman should be the next governor. I'll boost his rating significantly if he shows he can spend his money smartly, not lavishly; shows he can really connect with average citizens and delegates; shows he can overcome the "rich boy, born with a silver spoon" impression many people will have of him; and shows he has command of the issues and solutions to the state's problems.

Fred Lampropoulos

Wilson: 3. He has been running ads already. If the state wants a maverick from the private sector, he's the guy.

Webb: 4. Anyone with substance and money has to be taken seriously, and Lampropoulos has both. He has to avoid burnout and voter fatigue from running for so long, and he doesn't get a lot of return for his early efforts. He will be a factor when vote-counting begins at the state convention next year.

Jim Hansen

Wilson: 6. Hansen is next to Leavitt in potential. Lots of chips in his Republican black book. Tough to keep away from the nomination; equally tough to elect him as governor.

Webb: 6. If he runs, Hansen will be formidable among delegates and he will have a pitch that will be attractive to voters: Elect me and I'll give you four years and make tough decisions that are best for the state, not for me politically. Hansen can probably get out of convention, but would face tough primary and general election fights.

Parley Hellewell

Wilson: 1. Has a good Web site.

Webb: 1. Nice guy, but no chance in this field of candidates.

Other Republican candidates are likely to get in the race.

Democrats

Scott Matheson Jr.

Wilson: 6. Family credibility is the key. Some think he must prove his grit after a quiet time as U.S. Attorney.

Webb: 5. Matheson is smart and cerebral, but untested as a politician. Can a cautious and reserved guy turn on the charm and demonstrate real leadership?

Paul Van Dam

Wilson: 3. Van Dam is a sleeper. Smart and issue savvy, as a former statewide winner, he could make it rough on Matheson.

Webb 2. He's been away too long. He'd be a sacrificial lamb for the Democrats.

Ron Allen

Wilson: 3. He is actively exploring. Could be pushed out by the Matheson wave. Solid.

Webb: 1. Moderate Democrat, but no match for any of the top six Republicans.

Bill Orton

Wilson: 4. Still commands respect from his years in Congress. Hasn't shown much interest. Would be enticed if Leavitt goes. He beat Leavitt in Salt Lake and a few other counties in 2000.

Webb: 2. Orton won't run if Matheson runs.

Jan Graham

Wilson: 2. A proven state-wide winner as attorney general. Odds would jump if she showed interest. Could be a strong lieutenant governor.

Webb: 1. Graham is enjoying life post-politics and won't jump in.

Democrat Ted Wilson, former Salt Lake mayor, directs the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah and is a political consultant. E-mail: tednews@hotmail.com. Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lavarrwebb@msn.com

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