GOP revival? Arnold is no Ronald

SAN FRANCISCO -- In early 1981, when President-elect Ronald Reagan was preparing his first inaugural address, an urgent request arrived from fellow Republican Paul Laxalt of Nevada.

"There was a concern among Reagan's conservative base that he might start modifying on his principles," said Kenneth L. Khachigian, a Reagan speechwriter. "And so we inserted a line in that speech, specifically that he would not compromise on his core principles. Reagan was very, very concerned that he not depart from his basic moorings."

That dedication to his conservative following helped make Reagan a hero of the Republican resurgence in the 1960s, when he left a career in Hollywood to defeat an incumbent Democratic governor in California, going on later to win two terms in the White House.

Now another big-name Republican actor is stepping onto the California political stage, and the anxious chatter among Republicans in the state is whether that actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, can pull off a Reagan-style revival and win the governor's seat, in a state that is dominated by Democrats.

Many Reagan revolutionaries are doubtful. For people like Khachigian, who remain strongly aligned with the traditional Reagan wing of the party and insist it still constitutes the party's base, Schwarzenegger has plenty to prove before he could be trusted with leading a bona fide Republican comeback.

Not that they aren't hoping. Schwarzenegger arrives at a time when Republicans in California have suffered through what seems like an eternity in the political wilderness. A Republican presidential candidate has not won in California since 1988, when Reagan pushed the elder George Bush across the finish line. In the election last November, the Democrats managed the unfathomable, sweeping all statewide offices for the first time in 120 years, including Gray Davis' re-election as governor.

State party officials said Schwarzenegger's bid to replace Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has had the instant effect of drawing star-struck volunteers to the party's doorstep. Schwarzenegger also got a favorable nod on Friday from President Bush, who said, "I think he'd be a good governor."

But conservatives like Lyn Nofziger, who worked for both Gov. Reagan and President Reagan, approach Schwarzenegger with a certain level of suspicion about his Republican credentials.

"I think he faces a real difficult task," Nofziger said. "He still has to convince at least half of his party, and probably more than that, that he is the kind of leader that they want to follow."

The problem for Schwarzenegger is that he is perceived as a moderate in a party that still largely sees Ronald Reagan and his conservative revolution as its raison d'tre. Schwarzenegger has expressed support for abortion rights, gay rights and some gun control. He is considered by many on the right as soft on immigration. During the impeachment of President Bill Clinton, he was quoted as saying he was embarrassed to be a Republican. Last fall, he took a beating on conservative talk-radio shows for leading a ballot initiative that expanded state financing of after-school programs.

Conservatives point out that Schwarzenegger's vehicle for entering the state's political sweepstakes -- the recall against Davis -- was a grass-roots uprising among ordinary conservatives, made viable by the bank account of a millionaire conservative, Rep. Darrell Issa of San Diego, who differs with many of Schwarzenegger's views. (Issa dropped out of the race on Thursday.)

"If he gets elected, and the recall is a convenient adjunct to his candidacy, then it is not going to work," said Khachigian, who was advising Issa. "He has to realize that this is a true rebellion. It is a Republican and conservative rebellion."

Schwarzenegger also steps into the political ring with virtually none of the preparation of Reagan.

When Reagan ran for governor in 1966, he had not only been a well- known actor, the host of a popular Sunday television show and a dashing figure around Los Angeles, but a visible Republican activist across the country.

Lou Cannon, whose new book, "Governor Reagan: His Rise to Power" (PublicAffairs), will be published next month, said Reagan's entry into electoral politics was a foregone conclusion after the defeat of the Republican presidential nominee Barry M. Goldwater in 1964. As early as the 1950s, Cannon said, Reagan had been approached about running for Congress.

"After Goldwater got walloped, there weren't a lot of Republicans on the scene," Cannon said. "The only real question Reagan himself had was what office to run for, whether it should be governor. Reagan's focus had been on national issues."

Schwarzenegger, by contrast, arrives on the Republican scene as a virtual outsider. And Schwarzenegger will never become president, because he is a naturalized citizen. And that, Nofziger said, should end any discussion of Reagan: the Sequel.

"These people haven't read the Constitution," Nofziger said.

"I predict he is going to be attacked by the right wing," Cannon said. "He doesn't have a group of people who two years before the election, as in Reagan's case, were going to do everything they could to advance him."

Kenneth M. Duberstein, who served as Reagan's White House chief of staff, is less pessimistic about Schwarzenegger's ability to romance the conservatives. Victory for a Republican, Duberstein said, trumps ideological purity.

As a practical matter, the special recall election allows him to sidestep the inevitable bloodletting of a primary battle and step right into the governor's office as the state's top Republican.

"It is one thing to knock off Gray Davis," he said, "it is another thing to have the opportunity to lead the resurgence in California, as Reagan did in the aftermath of Pat Brown, and Schwarzenegger is going to try to do in the aftermath of Gray Davis. And I think he has many of the same qualities as Reagan."

One quality he does not possess, though, is the ability to become president, because he is a naturalized citizen. And that, Nofziger said, should end any discussion of Reagan: the Sequel.

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