Do polls tell true story in S.L. mayoral race?

Wilson: As we approach the Oct. 7 municipal primary date in Utah, the spotlight is on the race for mayor in Salt Lake City. Here Frank Pignanelli and Molonai Hola are challenging incumbent Rocky Anderson. Recent news polls show Anderson in the lead. If the primary election were held today, Anderson would probably come out ahead. The two top vote getters will square off in the Nov. 4 final election. The big question after the primary will be who will gain the larger part of the vote that went to the losing candidate. Deseret Morning News pollster Dan Jones shed some light on that subject in the poll he conducted Aug. 19-21. Quoted from the Deseret Morning News: "If Hola is eliminated in the primary, 16 percent of his support went to Anderson, Jones found. But 63 percent went to Pignanelli. If Pignanelli is eliminated in the primary, 28 percent of his support goes to Anderson. Hola gets 46 percent of the Pignanelli voters." This means Anderson would suffer most of the voters' second choice votes going to his opponent on Nov. 4. And that would certainly tighten a race that Anderson now seems comfortably leading.

The bigger question in Salt Lake City is the one of turnout. Most Salt Lake City primaries have a voter response of less than 20 percent. Final elections seldom run above 30 percent. This means it is difficult for a pollster to predict final outcomes. How can the pollster know he is polling the small number of voters who will actually vote? And that fact changes the strategy candidates must use to score a win. With larger turnouts, media advertising is efficient. Simply advertise to the broad public and count on the turnout to provide needed votes. But in small turnouts, the strategic advantage turns to targeted constituencies. So the winning candidate in this year's mayoral race will be the candidate who has done the best job of identifying voters and then contacting them prior to the election to make sure they go to the polls. You can count on Anderson targeting the liberal base he has used effectively in his past election, while Hola and Pignanelli will concentrate on the mostly LDS vote that the poll showed will go against Anderson.

For the observer, the race becomes hard to analyze. Polls will only shed a dim light on the outcome. Media advertising will not reveal the hidden activities of the campaign offices. So surprises may be in the offing. Stay tuned; this race could be very exciting before it is over.

Webb: In close, low-turnout races, candidates who target best almost always win. Broad-based mass media campaigns in low-turnout races waste resources because they mostly reach people who won't be voting. The winning formula is to reach active voters with carefully- researched messages several times before election day. Candidates without much money sometimes run the best campaigns because they don't have the luxury of buying mass media and so target their spending where it really counts. Molonai Hola is in just that position, working with constituencies natural for him, and trying to get them to the polls on primary day. Because of that low-key, grass- roots effort, he might just surprise us with a better-than-expected showing. Candidates in the 2004 races are also getting active:

-- House Speaker Marty Stephens held a very successful fund- raising dinner last week, bringing in about $180,000. Along with the proceeds of a golf fund-raiser he recently hosted, Stephens has added about $220,000 to his gubernatorial campaign fund in recent weeks. It's awfully early, but Stephens is running a smart, disciplined, well-organized race, capitalizing on years of relationships with Republican political activists at the grass-roots level. I'm betting he will be a real factor in the contest.

-- Utah County Commissioner Gary Herbert also had a good week, landing businessman Ben Waldron as his gubernatorial campaign manager. Waldron has significant real estate holdings and owns several businesses in Utah. He has been active with the Republican Party as a major donor and fund-raiser. He brings top-notch management and fund-raising experience to the campaign. Herbert intends to take advantage of his extensive ties with local government leaders.

-- In the 2nd District congressional race, John Swallow continues to make fund-raising progress with support from the Club for Growth, a national GOP group that can raise large amounts of money for candidates the group backs. A mailing went out to members earlier this month asking them to contribute to Swallow's campaign.

Swallow's fund-raisers believes the Club for Growth mailing could bring in more than $200,000, moving him toward his goal of having more than $500,000 in the bank by the end of the year.

Swallow's major competitor for the GOP nomination, Tim Bridgewater, is also out working hard, mostly behind the scenes, focused on delegates and opinion leaders. Bridgewater won more delegate votes in the state convention last year than Swallow, but Swallow beat Bridgewater in the primary.

Swallow hopes his fund-raising success can help persuade Bridgewater and the other GOP competitors to step aside and let him have a clear shot at Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson, but that seems unlikely at this point.

Democrat Ted Wilson, former Salt Lake mayor and former director of the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics, is a political consultant. He is a personal friend and adviser to Rocky Anderson. E-mail: tednews@hotmail.com. Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lavarrwebb@msn.com

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