A glimmer of hope in the Ulster gloom: a peace plan put forward by the governments of Britain and the Irish Republic offers new hope but the threat of more violence if it fails

For 25 years, the terrorist Irish Republican Army (IRA) has been trying to drive the British out of Northern Ireland. Its aim is to unite Northern Ireland with the Irish Republic to the south, but it's no closer to that goal now than it was a quarter of a century ago.

It's a grim story whose most recent chapter began in 1969. That's when Catholics, outnumbered two to one by Protestants in Northern Ireland, rioted for equal civil rights in housing and jobs. Since then, more than 3,000 people have died in the North and 40,000 have been injured as the IRA and Protestant terrorists battled.

Ireland was partitioned in 1921 after a revolt against British rule. The northern province of Ulster, largely Protestant, remained a part of Britain. The Catholic South became first the Irish Free State, then Eire, and today is known as the Republic of Ireland. A clause in its constitution claims the North as part of a single, united country. A glimmer of hope for better relations between the Republic and Britain came in 1985 with an Anglo - Irish Agreement which would allow the Republic to consult and advise on policies in Ulster.

Until recently, nothing has come of this and the killings and counter - killings have continued. Last year, however, new signs pointed to a possible peace. The IRA, once strongly supported in the South, lost ground heavily there. In March 1993, 20,000 people in Dublin, the South's capital, demonstrated against the killing of two British boys in an IRA bombing. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the peace accord between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization robbed the IRA of two suspected foreign backers. The terrorist group now has only a few Irish - American friends left.

Then, last fall, John Hume, Catholic leader of the non - violent Social Democratic Labour Party in Northern Ireland, held secret talks with Gerry Adams. Mr. Adams is the leader of Sinn Fein, the legal and political wing of the outlawed IRA. Together, these two men worked out a peace plan which they presented to Irish Republican Prime Minister Albert Reynolds. Mr. Reynolds accepted it and passed parts of it on to British Prime Minister John Major.

This looked like indirect dealings with the IRA, something British governments had been vowing for ten years never to do. However, Sir Patrick Mayhew, Britain's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, revealed that hisgovernment had been in touch with the IRA for most of 1993. The result of such an about - turn might have prompted calls for Mr. Major to resign. However, the prospect of possible relief from years of terror in the city streets of both islands allowed the British leader and his government to get away with it.

But, peace plans to bring the bitterly hostile sides together in Northern Ireland have been tried before and have always failed. The only plan that might work would be an agreement between Britain and the Irish Republic. John Major and Albert Reynolds met more than once before Christmas and offered the IRA and Protestant extremists a new framework for peace.

Calling it "an historic opportunity" to end the bloodshed, their joint agreement is designed to calm the fears of both the Catholic minority and the Protestant majority in Ulster. Here are key parts of their plan:

All parties in Northern Ireland must renounce violence for a period of three months. If they do so, they will be invited to join negotiations on Ulster's future.

The Irish government is prepared to amend its constitutional claim to the territory of Northern Ireland as part of a general political settlement.

Northern Ireland will remain part of the United Kingdom as long as that is the wish of the majority of its people. At the same time, the British government admits the possibility that Northern Ireland might someday wish to leave the U.K. If referendums held simultaneously in the North and South both approved a united Ireland, the U.K. would accept that verdict.

The agreement opens two doors to the IRA which had always been closed to it before. First, it promises the rebel organization a chance to take part in talks on the future of Ulster if it gives up violence. Second, it accepts an IRA demand that all Irish people be allowed to vote in separate referendums on the future of the island.

True, the Major - Reynolds declaration doesn't offer the IRA much hope of realizing its goal of a united Ireland. Any referendum in Ulster asking its people to vote for or against union with the Irish Republic would almost certainly be defeated by the big Protestant majority. Only the higher Catholic birth rate might tip the scales toward union in the far - off future.

However, with peace between the gunmen and bombers on both sides, Sinn Fein might hope for fairer power - sharing between Catholics and Protestants.

At presstime, the IRA seems to be signaling rejection of the deal. In the closing days of 1993, a device thought to be a mine exploded near Londonderry minutes after a British army patrol passed the spot. No one claimed responsibility, but the attack was typical of IRA methods. A day later, a bomb for which the IRA took responsibility exploded in Belfast, slightly injuring a soldier and a civilian. In London, three fire bombs went off in different locations; police believe them to be the work of the IRA. A police post west of Belfast was also bombed in what the Reuters news agency called "a clear rejection of peace calls by the Irish Prime Minister Albert Reynolds."

Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams suggested at year's end it might be several weeks before his party announces its official position on the new peace proposal.

SUGGESTED ACTIVITIES:

1. Using the latest data, compare progress toward peaceful solution or the reverse in (a) Ireland, (b) the Middle East, and (c) South Africa.

2. On a time - line chart, note the significant events of Irish history. In a report below your chart, analyze these events to explain the centuries of bitterness and misunderstanding between English and Irish which continues to this day.

Copyright Canada and The World Feb 1994
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