How the GOP won in New Mexico - Republican Party

A Behind-the-Scenes Look at Bill Redmond's Victory in the Nation's Most Recent Congressional Election

In 1996, Bill Redmond was the Republican nominee for Congress against popular Democratic incumbent Bill Richardson. Richardson had represented New Mexico's heavily Democratic Third District since its creation in 1982 and had won reelection with impressive margins ever since. Last year was no different, Richardson easily defeated Redmond 67-30 percent.

When Richardson resigned his seat to become U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations this winter, most pundits wrote the special election off as an easy Democrat victory. Even highly regarded political analyst Charles Cook wrote in March that it was "safe to assume Democrats will hold on to the currently vacant seat of U.N. Ambassador Bill Richardson in New Mexico." An April 28th Roll Call article was entitled: "Democrat Still Favored to Hold New Mexico Seat."

These generalizations were almost universally accepted as the conventional wisdom not only in Washington, but also by most observers in New Mexico. Apparently, the state's political elite saw the garnering of the Democratic nomination as tantamount to election.

Eric Serna, a State Corporation Commissioner who started lobbying party insiders for the Democratic nomination before Richardson's appointment became official, secured the nod on the first ballot. Bill Redmond won the Republican nomination to face Serna in the upcoming special election on the second ballot. Although he had lost heavily to Richardson only a few months earlier, Redmond was committed to running an aggressive campaign. He put together a professional campaign team and fully recognized the unique strategic scenario which relied upon (a) the turnout dynamics of a special election and (b) the presence of a formidable third-party candidate, Carol Miller of the Green Party.

Flawed Candidate

From the beginning, opposition research revealed what many in New Mexico already knew: Democrat Serna was a flawed candidate with a history of ethical problems. Most recently, Serna had used the phone in his state office to place calls to party officials who would be selecting the Democratic congressional nominee. In addition, Serna had raised campaign contributions from industries he regulated as a corporation commissioner; he was accused of pressing staffers, and those with business before the Commission, to buy jewelry from him; and he had used a state airplane to fly to horse races.

Our campaign tested all of the above, and more, in the benchmark survey we did for Redmond. The poll took on a special significance, as it had to tell us not only what our message should be, but also who (demographically, ideologically, geographically) would be voting in the special election. To accomplish all of this we designed an extremely tight screening process that eliminated any respondent who either was not registered, was not a self-described "definite" or "probable" voter, did not say that they voted in all or most local elections or did not know the election would be in the month of May.

The poll's findings were encouraging. Redmond only trailed Serna by nine points (38-29 percent) and Green candidate Miller garnered a promising seven percent. Almost one in four (23 percent) voters were undecided.

Most significantly, two findings showed that the race was winnable for Republican Redmond. First, a plurality of voters said restoring "honesty and integrity to government" was most important to them in deciding their vote. Second, when voters learned more about the two major candidates, Serna's numbers dropped while Redmond's held steady.

Based on these results, the campaign team crafted a message that couched the race in these simple terms: Eric Serna is a corrupt politician; Bill Redmond will return honesty and integrity to government.

It is interesting to note that recent conventional wisdom has held that character doesn't matter - with Bill Clinton's success as Exhibit A. But New Mexico voters disagreed. By repeatedly reminding the electorate of Serna's lack of ethical discretion,we were able to drive his negatives to above 40 percent.

While Redmond traveled across the district meeting voters and sharing his positive conservative message, the on-site campaign team (which, for most of the period, consisted only of a campaign manager) put together an impressive ground organization.

The campaign then took the fight directly to the district's Republican voter base. Strategy, mail and media were handled by former RNC regional political director Dave Pearson. Pearson put together an impressive mail and phone program that touched each Republican voter several times. For instance, the 60,000 targeted GOP households received 460,000 mail pieces urging them to: first, vote by absentee ballot; second, vote early; and third, turn out on election day.

Phone calls were important as well. The absentee ballot piece was followed up by an automated call from Governor Johnson urging fellow Republicans to fill out and return the absentee ballot. The early-vote mail piece was followed up by an auto mated call from Republican Party of New Mexico chairman John Dendahl asking GOPers to vote early. The week before the election, Republican voters received an automated call from their U.S. Senator, the popular Senator Pete Domenici, exhorting them to get out and vote. Finally, Republicans received a similar automated call from Redmond the weekend before the election. A live volunteer calling effort reached another 10,000 favorable GOP households.

Democrats were targeted with mail sent from the state GOP. Democratic households in the upper Rio Grande valley (where Democratic candidates traditionally get 57 percent of their vote) received two mailers the Thursday and Friday before the election. Both pieces focused on Serna's ethical issues.

Three's Company The Redmond campaign's next step was a mail piece that sent the Democratic party establishment into a tailspin. The self-mailer had on one side a reproduction of a local newspaper article that chronicled Serna's "troubling ethical history" and on the other side a newspaper article praising Green nominee Carol Miller.

This piece was crucial. By showing that the Redmond campaign was taking Miller seriously, Miller supporters were energized. Serna supporters were demoralized and his base fractured.

By legitimizing Miller as a liberal alternative, we helped her peel away crucial Democratic voters from Serna (she actually carried Santa Fe County, a Democratic stronghold, on election day).

Redmond's ads, also produced by Pearson, drove home the same message throughout the district. By introducing a softer, conservative message through testimonials, the campaign was able to eliminate the much-discussed gender gap. In fact, our final brushfire poll showed Redmond winning females by a larger margin than males! Several ads were used to deftly drive the same message that Serna was corrupt and Redmond would restore honesty and integrity.

The Redmond campaign refused to surrender either the women's vote or the senior vote. By identifying Redmond as a warm, caring person we were able to blunt Serna's textbook Democratic attacks of extremism that hurt so many Republican candidates in 1996. However, this GOP campaign fought back when attacked and went fight after Serna's record.

Tight Screens

The NRCC and the campaign commissioned a final Fabrizio, McLaughlin poll two weeks out. Again, we used a tight sample screening process in our polling to identify likely voters in what would be a low-turnout special election. The wisdom of the campaign's strategy was confirmed: the survey showed Redmond had moved into the lead. Although the undecideds were heavily Democratic, non-linear psychographic patterns showed that if voters, of all parties, continued to break in similar patterns that Redmond would win by between two and four points.

The importance of the sample screening delineation used in the polling cannot be overemphasized. It was validated when the NRCC, for legal purposes, used another polling firm to handle tracking in the final ten days. They chose a less-stringent screening process than the one we used and, as a result, mistakenly showed Serna winning throughout.

Finally, potential Democratic swing voters were identified by the Redmond campaign through an extensive paid phone program designed by John Grotta. Grotta developed a GOTV script identifying district Democrat's on several issues and then used those issues to push them toward Redmond. In this effort, one-in-three Democrats were identified as supporting Redmond. Those voters were then moved into the GOP universe and targeted with the Republican GOTV effort. The remaining two-thirds were called with an issue-specific script coupled with the campaign's message of corruption versus integrity.

Big GOP Turnout Skew

Election Day was not the normally frivolous experience it often is. Ballot security was a must and was directed by the NRCC and the state party to perfection. Poll watchers were sent throughout the district to ensure a fair election.

As the numbers began to flow in on election night, the campaign's strategy proved its worth. In what was called by the Santa Fe New Mexican as "one of the biggest upsets in New Mexico political history," Bill Redmond defeated Eric Serna by 3,000 votes (43-40 percent) to capture this "safe Democratic" seat. Green candidate Miller garnered an impressive, but not altogether surprising, 17,079 ballots for 17 percent of the total vote.

The final tally will show Serna and the Democratic party outspending Redmond and the Republican party by a significant margin.

Although the GOP strategy was sound and the campaign was expertly run on the ground, not enough can be said for the personal effort of the candidate. Redmond's passion convinced skeptics that he could win. His ideas had an immeasurable impact on voters. His enthusiasm roused a number of Democratic and Hispanic voters that might have stayed with Serna had a lesser candidate been the GOP nominee. Redmond's animated campaigning and passionate conservatism energized and mobilized the Republican base to turnout in record numbers (54 percent compared to 23 percent Democratic turnout).

"SCANDAL" :30 SECOND TV SPOT BILL REDMOND FOR CONGRESS

PRODUCED BY PEARSON COMMUNICATIONS

ANNCR: With Washington engulfed in money scandals, New Mexicans have a choice: Send another corrupt politician to add to the scandals or send an honest man to Washington. Bill Redmond's life has been spent making things better, saving marriages, counseling young people and fighting for better education for our kids.

REDMOND: I'm Bill Redmond. I'll fight to end the money scandals and bring honesty back to government. I'll work full time for you and your family, and I respectfully ask for your vote on May 13th.

ANNCR: Send an honest man to congress, elect Bill Redmond.

Mike Burita was Redmond's campaign manager. Chris Wilson is vice president of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, a Republican polling and strategy firm that worked for Bill Redmond (http://www.fabmac.com).

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