A Democratic perspective - Voting Trends: What's Next?

Shortly after his first election, a friend told Franklin Roosevelt that if he succeeded, he would go down in history as the greatest American president and that if he failed, he would be recorded as one of the worst. FDR replied, "If I fail, I shall be the last."

Almost certainly, the stakes in '98 will pale next to the stakes in Roosevelt's first Depression-era term. Indeed, with welfare "reformed," the budget "balanced," the tax issue "resolved," and even the question of what role government should play "answered," it is reasonable to ask if there will be any defining issues this next cycle. Here are a few possibilities:

Entitlement Reform: Social Security and Medicare reform will be defining issues at some point, and likely sometime soon. This may also be - after civil rights, Vietnam, the environment and women's equity - the last great crusade of the Baby Boomers. The real question is one of timing.

A major confrontation has been set up for 2000. With neither party willing to confront the issue now, it would probably take an outside, Perot-style agitator to force this issue into the '98 debate.

This is a debate the Democrats should welcome. We will always be advantaged on this issue. Republicans have little credibility when it comes to middle-class entitlements. Most polls give Democrats a 30-40 point advantage when it comes to "protecting Medicare and Social Security."

Education: Bill Clinton has made education a top priority for his second term. Some prominent Republicans have also spotlighted this issue. Often, even-year national politics follows the lead of off-year state elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Thus crime (Virginia, 1993) and taxes (New Jersey, 1993) played a huge role in '94. A number of Democrats in '96 took their cues from Virginia Democrats' ability to turn back perceived Republican excesses in in '95. Currently, education is driving much of the debate in this year's state and local races.

We expect Democrats to reap the benefits. We must, though, look beyond traditional Democratic remedies (i.e. funding) and understand voter frustrations with public schools. Public concern very often has less to do with money and more to do with accountability and discipline. At least rhetorically, this needs to be part of the Democratic message. Otherwise, we could yield the advantage to Republicans and-prompt voter interest in radical reforms such as vouchers.

Although most voters currently oppose vouchers, there is a modest pro-voucher movement throughout the country, particularly among younger parents with children in public schools.

Values: Ironically, voters tend to look outward when things are going wrong (to Washington, D.C., to economic forces, to foreign threats) and look inward (to problems in their own lives and culture) when things are going right.

The political debate in '98 may take on a more moral, value-laden tone. We have seen plenty of minor policy "rehearsals" for this kind of debate, from the V-chip to "covenant" marriages, in recent months. Voters blame cultural decline as a major reason why they (still!) believe the country is off on the wrong track.

When commenting on Bill Bennett's potential presidential candidacy a while back, strategist James Carville quipped, "Voters want jobs, not a sermon." He had a point. It's easy for a values debate to grow banal. Still, candidates who can weave basic values into real issues - like crime or education or even entitlement reform - amplify the power of their campaign messages.

Democrats have won a foothold on values, led in part by President Clinton and a number of more tradition-minded Democrats such as Gov. Zell Miller in Georgia and Sen. Joe Liebermann in Connecticut. These Democrats, and many others like them at the local level, are giving voice to the notions of accountability and opportunity as defining political values.

Politicians who attempt to campaign on moral values need to clean their closets of skeletons; voters forgive politicians for many things, but rarely do they tolerate hypocrisy. Ask Mike Bowers, the Georgia GOP Attorney General and gubernatorial possibility whose recent confession of a 10-year adulterous relationship belied his carefully fostered moral profile.

Taxes: Republicans, without other ideas, invariably fall back on taxes even though Bill Clinton has shown how to whip them in a tax fight. Consider two points:

* If taxes play a major role in '98, it will be a top-down - rather than a bottom-up - issue. Our polling finds little pressure for tax cuts, particularly if they bust the budget or threaten key middle class priorities like education or Medicare.

* Tax reform, rather than mere tax cuts, may be the right dynamic. A flat - or flatter - tax may have wide appeal even though the balanced budget deal, which further complicates the tax code, demonstrates deeply institutional and bipartisan resistance to a tax system with fewer deductions.

The Republican edge on taxes has been diminished, but not destroyed. As long as the Presidency remains in Democratic hands, the GOP will have a difficult time selling a tax cut for the affluent, whatever its reformist packaging.

We always tell our clients, "Polling is not a crystal ball it cannot predict the future." Any futuristic analysis is conjection. An economic downturn, a major foreign crisis, another billionaire with new ideals on how to "fix" the country - a lot of things could dramatically alter voters' priorities between now and the next election.

But one thing we do know is that democracy demands a debate on vital issues - and the current vacuum will not last.

David Walker is an analyst at the Democratic polling firm of Cooper & Secrest, based in Alexandria, Virginia.

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