The misadventure of Tom Sawyer: how the free trade issue turned a presumed congressional lifer into a democratic primary loser - Case Study

David Beiler

A dozen days later, U.S. Rep. Tom Sawyer (D-OH) was still in a state of shock.

He had been rejected for renomination in the May 7 primary by 13 points, winning a little over one in four votes cast. Less than two weeks before, his last survey had placed him 17 points up.

"In those final two weeks, I got the best endorsements I had ever gotten," he marveled to a reporter. "...He got the worst publicity I've seen anybody get."

And yet, he, 28-year-old Tim Ryan -- with only 16 months experience in elective office - had crushed Sawyer in the Democratic primary for Congress, despite being outspent 5:1.

"It was geography," insisted Sawyer pollster Fred Yang, an explanation that rings true at first, but sounds hollow upon examination. About three-fifths of the constituency Sawyer faced at the polls was new to him, despite his 16 years in Congress. But the base represented by the new section was split between five candidates (three of them serious), while Sawyer had his old stomping grounds to himself.

A more convincing theory attributes the stunning upset to Sawyer's consistent support of free trade measures: NAFTA, GATT, fast-track authority and Most Favored Nation status for China - each an anathema to blue collars of the Rust Bowl.

Forgotten and Resentful

As America shed its manufacturing base in the 1980s and '90s, no place was hit harder than northeastern Ohio, beyond the Cleveland suburbs. As industrial plants and young people moved out, despair and resentment moved in. Population and political power declined.

The latest political downsizing is taking place this year: Republican Gov. Robert Taft III and the GOP-controlled legislature combined three Democratic congressional districts into two with the decennial remap adopted in January.

Just where the lines were drawn was a matter of political bluff and bluster. The Republicans had, at the time, a soft spot in their hearts for maverick U.S. Rep. Jim Traficant (D-Youngstown), who had voted to re-elect GOP House Speaker Denny Hastert in 2001. US. Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Lorain) threatened to run against Taft for governor if he were given a bad deal in congressional redistricting. Sawyer rattled his saber at Taft as well, but Brown had run statewide successfully before (for Secretary of State), and was sitting on a $1.6 million war chest. The governor opted to rile the less dangerous potential rival.

Sawyer's old 14th District consisted of greater Akron (Summit County and western Portage County), which he had served as mayor and state representative before going to Congress. The new map cut Sawyer's constituency almost into thirds, with much of Summit folded into Brown's 13th, while most of the rest was dumped into Traficant's 17th - an enclave dominated by the Mahoning Valley (Trumbull and Mahoning counties).

The constituencies of Sawyer and Traficant are similar, in that both were leviathans of manufacturing a generation ago. But while Akron's long-since vanished tire plants have been largely replaced by production of plastics, the Valley clings to a steel industry that has been reduced to little more than a collection of specialty shops.

As a result, the two areas now differ in attitude and outlook. Although Akron has seen better days, it looks hopefully to a high-tech future as "Polymer Valley." In contrast, the Mahoning Valley seethes with resentment at a federal government that seemingly sold its well-paying jobs out to multinational corporations, in trade deals that reduced the status of labor to an internationally low denominator.

That resentment has found its personification in the form of Jim Traficant.

While serving as Mahoning County sheriff in 1983, Traficant was indicted by federal authorities for taking bribes from organized crime. Serving as his own attorney (though he had no legal training), Traficant convinced the jury he had been conducting a one-man sting operation, had returned the money to a man who had since disappeared, and was a victim of political persecution by the feds. The trial made Traficant a local folk hero, and he parlayed the publicity into a seat in Congress in 1984.

Prone to profanity and outrageous statements, perpetually decked out in plaid sport coats and a haircut that looks self-administered, erratic and maverick in his positions, Traficant could have spent his entire career as little more than Congress' resident freak show. But instead, he combined his street-smarts and unshakeable popularity at home into leverage that enabled him to bring the district its share of the federal bacon -- vital to an economically declining area like the Mahoning Valley.

Congressional leaders knew Traficant was a perpetual free agent who could be counted upon only if paid off in pork, and his clout increased with seniority. His constituent service was unsurpassed.

Valley Ventures

Tom Sawyer faced the election season with three choices, other than retirement: run statewide (probably for Treasurer) or run again for Congress by challenging either Brown or Traficant.

That he chose to run in Traficant's district came as no surprise.

Little-known statewide, Sawyer would have had to raise millions for a successful Treasurer's s race in a large state that has trended Republican of late. An intramural against fellow Democrat Brown -- an astute, well-heeled politician elected to the legislature at 21 -- was equally daunting, given the new district lines.

On the other hand, Traficant now faced another string of federal indictments -- this time on racketeering as well as bribery charges -- and the case looked ironclad. Moreover, Wild Jim's vote for Republican Hastert had led to a stripping of his committee assignments (making him the "least powerful" member of Congress, according to the research group Your Congress Inc.) and his placement on the target list of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Traficant's future in the Democratic party looked so dicey (and his own time so absorbed in his legal defense), he eventually passed on the primary and filed for reelection as an independent. There was no shortage of Democratic entrants from the Mahoning Valley, however. Six had filed against Sawyer by the February 21 deadline:

* Tim Ryan -- a newly-minted state senator from Niles, fresh out of law school, who had worked for Traficant in the mid 1990s.

* State Rep. Anthony Latell (D-Girard) -- a veteran politician popular with longtime party operatives.

* Randy Walter -- a developer from Canfield who had unsuccessfully challenged Traficant as an independent in 2000.

* Maridee Costanzo -- an outspoken defense lawyer from Warren.

* Joe Louis Teague -- a black retired auto worker from Youngstown.

* Bryan Taafe -- a businessman from Austintown who conducted a non-campaign, filing no financial reports and avoiding debates.

State Sen. Robert Hagan (D-Youngstown) -- who had unsuccessfully challenged Traficant in 2000--took a look at the crowded Valley contingent forming on the ballot and passed. Unlike Ryan, Hagan would have had to surrender his legislative seat, and he bought the conventional wisdom that a splintered Valley vote ensured a Sawyer primary win.

Although 58 percent of the district's population resided in the Valley (those portions of Trumbull and Mahoning counties within the lines), that area usually cast nearly 70 percent of the votes in Democratic primaries. Still, the advantages of Sawyer's incumbency appeared insurmountable, unless voters from Traficant's old constituency united.

"With the current lay of the land, there is no way [Ryan or Latell] will win," assessed state Rep. Sylvester Patton, Jr. (D-Youngstown) for the local press. "They're going to cancel each other out."

Walter took a poll in early March that confirmed as much: Sawyer already had a substantial lead on the field. The day after vaguely announcing the findings of his survey, the independent-turned-Democrat withdrew.

The battle to emerge as the Valley's consensus choice had its first skirmish on March 14, at the endorsement meeting of Trumbull County's precinct committee members. Sawyer sent a letter explaining duties in Washington prohibited his attendance, but it was only a polite gesture.

"The party clearly wasn't interested in hearing from...Sawyer," analyzed the Youngstown Vindicator two days later. "...It only had eyes for State Rep. Anthony Latell."

Latell had served Trumbull as a county commissioner before going to the state senate - a post he had to relinquish to Ryan after 2000, due to term limits. He was a local boy, and he had paid his dues. The endorsement was never in doubt.

Still, Ryan showed up with a video crew in tow, and made an impressive pitch. He trailed Latell 97-55, with 11 committee members opting for political novice Costanzo, another county resident.

County endorsements once played an important role in Ohio primaries, but today they are virtually extinct: Trumbull is the only enclave in the district that still confers them. The honor includes being highlighted in organization mailings and advertising, and theoretically enlists the assistance of 284 committee members. As Trumbull has more district residents than any other county (about a third of the total), the endorsement represented a significant boost, despite its lack of surprise.

Latell tried to capitalize on his newfound momentum by publicly asking the other Valley candidates to drop out and unite behind him. The response was not receptive: Ryan and Costanzo hooted that the meeting was a house party for the good- ole-boy network, and that Latell represented the divisive politics of the past.

The veteran lawmaker's frustration at not having a clear field on his homeground boiled over a couple of weeks later when Hagen endorsed Sawyer, claiming the Akronite would never vote for something like NAFTA in the future. Growled Latell: "That's like saying, 'I'm sorry I killed you. I'll never do it again.'"

Air War Begins

Sawyer's campaign conducted its benchmark poll on March 23 (six weeks out), and found the incumbent was "in pretty good shape," recalled media man Jeff Rusnak. "He had a fairly modest lead, with a decent base. The Valley was wide open. The voters there were noT locked in."

The congressman's electronic media went up soon thereafter, and never came down, with a new TV spot every week. Two intro spots in late March and early April gave way to man-in-the street testimonials as Tax Day approached. By mid-April, Sawyer was being pitched with a DCCC-standard spot on subsidizing prescription drugs for seniors.

"Sawyer's ads were conventional, and did not go over well in the Mahoning Valley," assessed Dr. John Green, director of the Ray Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. "People there say [the spots] did not have the cultural feel that was needed to connect. They were good ads for Akron."

Unfortunately, Akron wasn't seeing them. The Sawyer TV campaign was conducted almost entirely on the Valley's ABC, CBS and NBC affiliates and cable systems (3800 total gross rating points), since the Akron area is served by the prohibitively expensive Cleveland market and has no network stations of its own. Cable in Portage County was added only down the stretch; Summitt County (Akron) was left out entirely.

Like the Sawyer media campaign, Ryan's TV started about six weeks out, but changed spots only every other week and was heavily concentrated on cable. Half of the winner's $90,000 in expenditures went for electronic media time, while only $3,000 was spent on media production. That doesn't surprise Rusnak, who is rankled by the chutzpah of Ryan media consultants Two Ticks and a Dog, skippered by Jim Fogerty: "They really were a guerilla operation....They used music by U-2 and Benny Goodman without permission. Someone should have called them on it."

Admitted Fogerty: "We're as green as it gets."

The first Ryan spot uses more parochial vibes from Good Brother Earl, a local garage band. The visuals show the youthful legislator on the move, walking through what Fogerty calls "Americana sets," meeting people, pressing the flesh. Copy comes over the music only toward the end, when Ryan introduces himself to an older woman. "We need some young blood in there," she responds, just before the tag arrives.

While Ryan's ads were not above appealing to the Valley's seige mentality, they did so with an optimistic twist. His second spot ("Opportunity") opens with footage pulling away from the flaming smokestack of the LTV steel mill, an ailing local landmark that was about to close down. "This is our time," insists the voiceover, "this is our opportunity. This is Tim Ryan." Presented in black-and-white documentary-style, with jumpcuts and hand-held shots, the spot dissolves to quick cuts from Ryan's speech before the Trumbull County organization.

"It showcased Tim's ability to fire people up," explained Fogerty. "It showed how genuine and passionate he is." One reason for the lack of color was a desire to evoke memories of JFK, and in a second version of the ad, Ryan quotes Bobby Kennedy (and Ronald Reagan): "If not us, who? If not now, when?"

Contrasting with this upbeat celebration of youthful optimism, Latell's media took the offensive, blasting Sawyer as an out-of-touch insider foreign to the Valley and Ryan as an unqualified opportunist.

"That didn't surprise us at all," recalled Fogerty. "We had faced that in the [state] Senate race, when [Latell consultant Vic] Rubenstein was handling our opponent there. That's his style of campaign.... People around here won't stand for that kind of politics anymore. We stayed positive in the Senate race and we stayed positive this year, and we've been successful....You don't make a good impression in a job interview by bashing the other guy up for the job."

Rusnak thinks Latell's aggressive tactics boosted Ryan by letting him have it both ways: staying clean while the frontrunning incumbent was taken down.

Not surprisingly, Rubenstein disputes that reading: "Tony was up-front because he had to be. He would have been hurt worse if he hadn't been. It didn't backfire. His people just didn't turn out."

And why the late surge toward Ryan?

"You got me," Rubenstein continued. "The whole [labor] thing was perverted. The local Labor Council president and the President of the [Greater Warren] Chamber of Commerce both backed Ryan. There were undercurrents there we don't understand yet."

Players Weigh In

In the Kennedys' heyday -- when times in this part of Ohio were greenest -- the unions were all-powerful, holding sway over the political fortunes of local politicians. That day has gone with the vanishing factories of yesteryear, but organized labor remains a powerful presence.

Although most big national labor PACs put their money behind Sawyer as a Democratic incumbent and likely winner, the local chapters were cool-to-hostile toward the free-trader. The United Auto Workers backed Hagan early, then sat out the race after he withdrew. On April 16, Latell grabbed the backing of the Steelworkers' Local 2, whose 7,000 members included rubber workers in Akron.

But most union locals active in the race backed Ryan. The local Building & Construction Trades Council threw the weight of its 10,000 members behind the young legislator early on, though many of its affiliated unions waited until shortly before the election to add their separate endorsements. The 11,000-member Communications Workers local climbed into the Ryan bandwagon with a week to go. The late announcements helped create a sense of momentum down the stretch.

"There was a lot of grassroots work for Ryan by union members," reported Dr. Green. "They supported him in his Senate race and they liked him....The NRA was a real plus for Ryan at the end as well."

A highly influential group in an area teeming with working-class hunters, the National Rifle Association had been another important organizational component of the Traficant coalition. Miffed by Sawyer's pro-gun control record, the NRA gave Ryan $5,000 and invested $20,000 in mailings to district members, urging the congressman's defeat. Noting Sawyer had earned the organization's "F" rating, one mailer declared "It is critically important you vote for State Senator Tim Ryan."

While Ryan was loading up the support of local blue-collar oriented groups, the elites rallied behind Sawyer. Business leaders, the DCCC, several national labor PACs, all three district dailies and a united front of elected officials from the western half of the district all lent their support to the incumbent, most coming on board in the closing two weeks. Most officials from Mahoning County gave him the nod as well. Ironically, all the establishment endorsements may have started to cut against their recipient.

"I think we were seen as too much the insider," Rusnak admitted.

Voice of the Victim

Traficant was convicted of corruption charges on April 11, but the political landscape barely changed.

"The more you beat up on Traficant, the more people gather around him," explains Stephen Dyer, who covered the race for the Akron Beacon-Journal. "You've got to walk a fine line between identifying yourself as anti-Traficant and arousing his supporters against you."

Sawyer seemed to cross that line at a debate on April 26, when the discussion began to focus on the troubles of the Mahoning Valley. "Where was your mentor during all of this?" Sawyer demanded of Ryan. "Where was he on this?"

In turn, the Valley candidates roasted the incumbent on the spit of free trade.

"What benefit has NAFTA brought to your district?" Costanzo demanded. "We've lost millions of jobs."

"I'm disappointed in the results of NAFTA," Sawyer rather feebly admitted, before insisting it had created American jobs.

"Where in Ohio have the jobs come?" Ryan plaintively asked.

"We need to be able to sell our goods in other places," obliquely responded the incumbent, but Costanzo refused to let go: "Name one job that has come here, please! I beg of you."

In a debate carried by the Youngstown PBS affiliate a few days later, Sawyer admitted he might have opposed NAFTA had he then represented the Mahoning Valley.

Meanwhile, controversies had erupted over sources of Ryan's campaign cash. His campaign had taken out a $50,000 loan (twice as much as he had raised) co-signed by Dennis Rossi, his old high school basketball coach. Since there was no written agreement as to who was responsible for what amount, FEC rules considered the burden to be shared equally between the signers. That in effect constituted a $25,000 "contribution" from Rossi, far in excess of the $1,000 limit. Ryan had originally identified the money as a candidate contribution, and continued to omit Rossi from his FEC report after acknowledging the money was a loan.

On April 25, Ryan filed a pre-primary report showing he had repaid $25,000 of the loan, which he claimed was the half guaranteed by Rossi. But given the lack of a written agreement between the signers, federal rules may still construe $12,500 of campaign funds as attributable to the coach.

Ryan had also received $2,500 from the Mahoning County Democratic Party that he had to return, since the organization had not registered as a PAC with the FEC.

The complaints flagging these issues were filed by Don Walter, father of Randy Walter (the dropout from the candidate field), who joined the legal action a few days later. The younger Walter had contributed $1,000 to the Sawyer campaign and employed Sawyer consultant Rusnak in his 2000 race for Traficant's seat.

Ryan called a press conference to denounce Don Walter as a "hatchet man" for Sawyer, who he claimed was practicing "dirty politics."

"He has learned from his mentor," Dyer has observed of Ryan, "especially on how to deflect criticism."

Ironically, most observers of the race now think the campaign finance flap gave Ryan the boost he needed, when he needed it. The Mahoning Valley has seen dozens of prosecutions for political corruption in recent years, and the "technical" regulatory-type charges against Ryan seemed innocent enough, by comparison.

"He looked victimized," observed Rusnak, adding that the flap "kept Ryan on the front page for days."

"The notoriety helped him with name recognition," agreed John Green. "The Mahoning Valley identifies with picked-on underdogs and has a long history of political machinations," giving Ryan's countercharges credibility. "Corruption is common there.... This looked like small potatoes."

Just before the campaign loan flap, less than two weeks before the primary, Sawyer's last poll showed him 17 points ahead and widening his lead. The Establishment was falling in behind him. But the Establishment doesn't sell in the Mahoning Valley these days.

"Youngstown is so depressed," declared journalist Dyer, "even the adult bookstores are closing."

Silent Surge

Ryan's third and last TV spot was originally intended to showcase the candidate's charisma and speaking ability, but the footage shot for it was disappointing. "Too many people on location," moaned media man Jim Fogerty.

"We had to do a five-hour rush job.... The campaign finance report controversy was really heating up. It was an intense period."

The result was "Swing," a spot driven by 1940s big band music that opens with blocks of text swooping onto a white field. Ryan's union endorsements are trumpeted one after another, with the word "LOCAL" prominently popping up again and again. Quick-cuts of Ryan speaking and pressing the flesh flash by before the final text-on-white message moves into view: "Vote Tim Ryan for Congress and get this Valley swinging again!"

The spot was a continuation of Ryan's central theme, composed for an aging electorate: I have the youthful exuberance and vision needed to bring back the good old days. The contrast was being drawn against his rival for the Valley mantle as much as the incumbent.

"Latell had been in public office for a long time," explained Ryan's brother/ manager Allen. "But all that experience hadn't shown much in the way of accomplishments. He'd had his shot. We were saying, 'give this energetic young guy a chance."'

Agreed Fogerty: "Latell was seen as Old Guard."

"A straight-arrow," but, added newsman Dyer, "as exciting as mud-water."

Definitely not the Mahoning Valley's type. How had he ever won elected office there?

"If you have enough connections, you can win a legislative race," Dyer explained. "But to go beyond [that], you have to have a voice.

Two weeks out -- with his polls insisting he had a commanding lead -- Sawyer went with a spot that touted the success of Akron's transition to the new economy, and his leadership role in the process. His ad for the final week emphasized the value of his experience and seniority, while highlighting his many endorsements from local newspapers and national unions.

Rusnak admits such an insider appeal doesn't go very far in the Mahoning Valley, but insists the campaign had to play the cards it held.

"As the incumbent, people expect you to have those endorsements and wonder what's wrong if you don't.... You're not going to give an incumbent like Tom a personality transplant."

Some observers say that was precisely what was required.

"The worst thing a candidate can do is go into the Valley and be a policy wonk," warned Dyer. The reporter marvels that he found out only post-election that Sawyer races Indy cars, a fact that would have improved the congressman's image considerably if known by Valley voters.

"Tom Sawyer is very intelligent," agreed Allen Ryan, "but he just didn't connect with voters in this area. They like someone like Traficant, who has a lot of personality and speaks off the cuff. Sawyer didn't resonate with them."

Sawyer pollster Fred Yang carried that analysis more broadly: "Our message just didn't have as much resonance as Ryan's."

Say, What?

It rained on election day, May 7; more heavily in Akron than in the Valley. Trumbull and Mahoning cast 79 percent of the district vote, although their share of the population was only 58 percent. Turnout there had far outstripped a pitiful showing in Sawyer's old base, largely because the media campaigns had all but ignored the Cleveland-served Akron area. No Sawyer spots at all had run in Summitt County.

The lopsided turnout and a last-minute rallying of the Valley vote around Ryan had given the young lawmaker a sweeping and stunning victory. Outside the winning campaign, no political or media operative in the district seemed to have anticipated it, although The Political Oddsmaker (published by this magazine's editor and available on the C&E Web site) called it right, making Ryan an 8 to 7 pre-primary favorite against the field.

The outcome so surprised political scientist Green, he toured the district for days shortly afterward, quizzing voters about their motivations. His conclusions are enlightening:

* Sawyer's free-trade votes may have been right for his old district, but the new district is an Old Democrat constituency. Even the areas from his old district are blue- collar and Old Democrat.

* Latell's time had passed. The voters in the Valley tend to be older, but they saw Ryan as a bright young guy who could make the area important again.

* Ryan came across as the best choice in the debates. He seemed like a younger, cleaner, more competent Traficant. He replaced Traficant as the voice of the Valley.

* The Ryan campaign was very grassroots. He didn't need a lot of money.

* Ryan's ads were laughed at as amateurish, but they apparently worked. They distinguished him from the pack. The experts didn't notice how effective Ryan's campaign really was.

"No question but NAFTA killed Tom Sawyer," reporter Dyer more succinctly assessed. "Labor did a lot of work hanging Sawyer on Ryan's behalf."

Despite Ryan's appeal to his old constituency, Traficant may still loom large over the impending November election. Rusnak is convinced he could poll 25 percent of the vote, giving the GOP entry - moderate state Rep. Anne Womer Benjamin - a shot in a district where A1 Gore broke 60 percent. Rubenstein thinks Traficant could even win, despite the fact he will be "campaigning" from a Pennsylvania jail cell. Others are more skeptical.

"Traficant could win; he so appeals to the downtrodden Mahoning Valley worker," Dyer acknowledged. "But his vote will probably fade away once people realize he will have to conduct congressional business while waiting to use a pay phone."

The Toteboard: Horses, Handlers, Wagers and Payoffs

         Tim Ryan         Tom Sawyer       Anthony Latell

Manager  Allen Ryan       Mike Thomas      Vic Rubenstein
Media    2 Ticks & a Dog  Burges & Burges  Rubenstein Assoc.
Polling  None             Garin-Hart-Yang  In-house
Expense  $90,000 (est.)   $459,358         $152,052
Votes    28,646 (41.3%)   19,098 (27.5%)   13,726 (19.9%)

RELATED ARTICLE: 30-SECOND TV SPOT

"Preserve"

Tom Sawyer for Congress

Producer/Consultant: Burges & Burges

TOM SAWYER: (looking into camera): Older Americans sacrificed to make our country strong. Now we have to protect them, because health care and prescription drug costs are soaring.

I'm Congressman Tom Sawyer, and we need a seniors' bill of rights. In Congress, I'm working to control health care costs, provide a prescription drug benefit under Medicare, preserve Social Security, and protect workers' pensions. It's their right, and it's our duty.

ANNCR: Congressman Tom

Sawyer - Integrity.

Experience. Results.

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WOMAN: One vote and one candidate can make a difference.

MAN: Only one candidate has the experience and integrity to get results -- Congressman Tom Sawyer.

WOMAN: Only one candidate is fighting for seniors in Washington -- Tom Sawyer.

MAN: Only one candidate is supported by more than a dozen unions, including fire-fighters and teachers -- Tom Sawyer.

WOMAN: And only one candidate endorsed by every major newspaper -- Congressman Tom Sawyer.

SAWYER: (looking into camera): Together we can make a real difference. I'm Congressman Tom Sawyer, and I ask for your vote.

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Tim Ryan for Congress

Producer / Consultant: 2 Ticks & a Dog

RYAN: How many more businesses have to leave this community before we decide it's time for a change? This new district is the greatest opportunity this valley has seen in 30 years. Finally, an opportunity to change our image. Finally, an opportunity to move this valley forward, and I'm running for this office because, when elected, I will take advantage of this opportunity.

David Beiler is a freelance writer, political analyst and senior contributing editor of Campaigns & Elections. He formerly served as an elected county official in Virginia.

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