50 hot races to watch Nov. 5 - Special Feature

Ron Faucheux

Gubernatorial races, where voters are frustrated with state fiscal troubles and want change, and U.S. Senate races, where voters will decide if the current one-vote Democratic majority will stand, dominate this year's electoral map of competitive contests.

Editor's Note: If the party that now controls a seat has an even chance or less of keeping it, the seat is considered at CRITICAL risk of loss; if it's between a 50.1 percent chance and a 54.9 percent chance, it's considered at SERIOUS risk of loss; if the party in control has at least a 55 percent chance, but less than a 60 percent chance, it's considered at POTENTIAL risk. Updates on all odds are available on the Web at www.campaignline.com (click "The Political Oddsmaker").

Governor, Alabama

DEMOCRATIC SEA TAT CRITICAL RISK.

After one term in office, Gov. Don Siegelman (D) suffers from considerable voter fatigue. A number of political scandals have touched his administration and Republicans believe he's ripe for picking. Three-term U.S. Rep. Bob Riley, an accomplished businessman before entering politics, is the GOP candidate. Riley has a solid conservative voting record and is an energetic campaigner.

The Political Oddsmaker: Riley now slightly favored, 15 to 14 (51.7 percent chance).

Governor, Alaska

DEMOCRATIC SEA TAT CRITICAL RISK.

Fourth-term Sen. Frank Murkowski (R) is ready to leave Washington and return home, and is seeking the state's open governorship. A fairly popular statewide figure since his first election in 1980, he considered a gubernatorial run in 1998, but passed in favor of a Senate re-election bid. Though he's the favorite to snatch the statehouse prize, his opponent, Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer (D), is no slouch and is making this race a contest. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles is not seeking re-election.

The Political Oddsmaker. Murkowski now favored, 8 to 7(53.3 percent chance).

Governor, Arizona

REPUBLICAN SEA TAT CRITICAL RISK.

Republicans have nominated former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon to carry their torch for this open seat against Attorney General Janet Napolitano, the Democratic nominee. Former Arizona Secretary of State Richard Mahoney is running as an Independent. Salmon is campaigning as a Reaganesque tax-cutter while Napolitano runs on her state record, saying she's a new breed of Democrat who's tough on crime and friendly toward business. Early voting starts Oct. 3.

The Political Oddsmaker: Even.

Governor, California

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK.

Most voters in America's largest state would like to replace Gov. Gray Davis (D). They believe he's a political opportunist who has failed in his handling of important energy, budget and economic issues. On that basis, you'd think Davis' Republican challenger, conservative businessman Bill Simon, would have a great chance. But Simon, the son of the former GOP Treasury secretary of the same name, has his own share of negatives -- largely tied to legal problems involving family businesses and a series of campaign snafus. However, a recent judicial decision gave Simon's campaign new life by overturning a $78 million fraud verdict involving a family investment. But the hard-bitten, take-no-prisoners, lavishly-funded Davis campaign continues the relentless attacks on their novice rival, hitting him on everything under the sun. As a result, Davis' re-election is now favored, despite deep voter disaffection with his four-year job performance.

The Political Oddsmaker: Davis now favored, 9 to 7 (56.3 percent chance).

Governor, Florida

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

The 2000 presidential recount put Gov. Jeb Bush (R) into a politically awkward position, with his brother winning the presidency based on a disputed, razor-thin lead in his state. And that seemed to weaken Gov. Bush's re-election position for this year. The prospect of former Clinton Attorney General Janet Reno (D) as their November opponent, however, gave Bush supporters confidence they'd have the right foil to run against. But then lawyer Bill McBride's last-minute Democratic primary surge knocked out Reno, and that has scrambled the calculations. Though McBride is the underdog, and his disputed primary victory was overshadowed by voting procedure breakdowns, some think Bush may yet prove to have a glass jaw. His handling over the summer of a controversy surrounding state child care services certainly didn't help. It's now up to underdog McBride to figure out how to land the right message punch -- and up to Bush to leave no body part unprotected. On election day, a motivated Democratic base -- a consequence of the 2000 recount -- is likely to be loaded for Bush; so Republicans have to play a smart ground game, too.

The Political Oddsmaker: Bush now favored, 7 to 6 (53.8 percent chance).

Governor, Hawaii

DEMOCRATIC SEA TAT CRITICAL RISK.

A weak economy, fiscal troubles, Democratic feuding and voter annoyance has opened a serious chance for the Republicans to capture the governorship in this Democratic state. Former Maui Mayor and current GOP party chair Linda Lingle, who came close to winning the post four years ago but lost the race in the last week due to a massive Democratic turnout effort, is now the favorite. Democrats hope they can pull together after their Sept. 21 primary. They will try, once again, to cobble together a once potent statewide party coalition. But beating the clock will be a difficult task this time.

The Political Oddsmaker: Lingle now slightly favored, 12 to 11 (52.2 percent chance).

Governor, Illinois

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Incumbent Gov. George Ryan (R) may be the most unpopular governor in the country. Even many Republicans, who voted for him four years ago, can't wait for him to leave office. Scandals have soured voters on his leadership to such an extent that he decided not to seek re-election in what would have been an uphill battle. Unfortunately for Republicans, their current gubernatorial nominee, Attorney General Jim Ryan, shares not only the embattled incumbent's party label but also his last name (no relation, however). Many local GOP operatives are already discussing the statewide party rebuilding process they hope to launch after this November's possible rout. Democratic nominee U.S. Rep. Rod Blagojevich is the favorite.

The Political Oddsmaker: Blagojevich now favored, 9 to 7 (56.3 percent chance).

Governor, Iowa

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

Four years ago, then-state Sen. Tom Vilsack (D) was a longshot candidate for governor -- until the last days of the general election, when he surged ahead of opponent Jim Ross Lightfoot (R) and won the year's most spectacular upset. Vilsack, once touted as a possible national candidate, ran into political trouble earlier this year largely due to state fiscal problems. His opponent, Republican lawyer Doug Gross, chief-of-staff to former Gov. Terry Branstad (R), is mounting a strong challenge in a state with more than its share of voter disaffection with those in power.

The Political Oddsmaker: Vilsack now slightly favored, 12 to 11 to 9 (52.2 percent chance).

Governor, Kansas

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Bitter infighting has torn the Republican Party apart in what should be friendly territory, handing the Democrats a golden opportunity to win this year's open governor's race. Insurance Commissioner Kathleen Sebelius (D), the politically savvy daughter of former Ohio Gov. John Gilligan (D), is now the frontrunner. Republicans nominated a leader of social conservative party wing, state Treasurer Tim Shallenburger, after a contentious primary. Despite the state's conservative leanings and Shallenburger's efforts to unite the party, Sebelius is the candidate to beat.

The Political Oddsmaker: Sebelius now slightly favored, 10 to 9 (52.6 percent chance).

Governor, Maryland

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

The last Republican to win this state's governorship was Spiro Agnew in 1966. But this year, Republicans have new hope of an upset. Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, daughter of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, has been the party's gubernatorial heir apparent ever since her selection as Gov. Parris Glendening's (D) running mate in 1994 and 1998. But during the last year, incumbent Glendening's popularity has declined to the point that he's now a heavy millstone around Townsend's neck. That, together with an inept Townsend campaign take-off and a federal probe of a state agency under the lieutenant governor's direction, has given the moderate Republican candidate, U.S. Rep. Robert Ehrlich, a fighting chance. Ehrlich understands that the full force of his rival's party base -- Blacks, public employees and union members -- may not be felt until the election's final days, so he's working overtime trying to soften up that base While wooing conservative and moderate Democrats to his side.

The Political Oddsmaker: Townsend now slightly favored, 12 to 11 (52.2 percent chance).

Governor, Massachusetts

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

Republican Lt. Gov. Jane Swift became governor last year when Paul Cellucci, her 1998 running mate, resigned the post to take an ambassadorship. Swift's brief tenure as the state's chief executive has been a rocky one. Her chances at retaining the governorship appeared so bleak earlier in the year that the GOP cognoscenti staged a bloodless coup, convincing her not to run and handing the party nod to businessman Mitt Romney, a former U.S. Senate candidate who won national acclaim for his handling of the Salt Lake City Olympics. State Treasurer Shannon O'Brien was the winner of the September 17 Democratic primary.

The Political Oddsmaker: Romney now slightly favored, 12 to 11 (52.2 percent chance).

Governor, Michigan

REPUBLICAN SEA TAT CRITICAL RISK.

Democratic Attorney General Jennifer Granholm now leads Republican Lieutenant Gov. Dick Posthumus, a low-key former state senator who won the number two slot four years ago on the coattails of Gov. John Engler (R). Although Posthumus is a longtime ally of Engler's, he's distanced himself from the incumbent by claiming his own brand of leadership. Michigan has its share of fiscal troubles which complicates life for statehouse Republicans. Democrats are excited about Granholm's chances, especially after her impressive primary win against a heavyweight field.

The Political Oddsmaker: Granholm now favored, 6 to 5 (54.5 percent chance).

Governor, Minnesota

INDEPENDENT SEA TAT CRITICAL RISK.

This three-way donnybrook is no surprise in a state that, between 1999 and 2001, had independent Jesse Ventura as governor, a staunch liberal Democrat as one senator and a staunch conservative Republican as the other senator. As Ventura leaves the governor's mansion, the major contenders for his job are state House Majority Leader Tim Pawlenty (R), state Senate Majority Leader Roger Moe (DFL) and former U.S. Rep. Tim Penny (I). Penny, a centrist Democrat when he was in Congress with strong credentials as a fiscal conservative, has the support of Ventura. As legislative leaders, both Moe and Pawlenty have opposed much of Ventura's agenda. This race has yet to be won and anything can happen. Some Democrats fear that in a close contest, a fourth contender, Green Party candidate Ken Pentel, could tip the scales if he rolls up enough votes.

The Political Oddsmaker: Pawlenty, Penny and Moe, even.

Governor, New Hampshire

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) passed on a reelection bid this year to run for the Senate instead. Democrats have nominated state Sen. Mark Fernald -- who opposed Shaheen for re-nomination last time -- and Republicans picked wealthy businessman Craig Benson -- who spent nearly $10 million in the primary from his Cabletron fortune -- to be their ticket-topper. Benson is running on a platform of change. Fernald is proposing a state income tax to fund education and to cut other taxes.

The Political Oddsmaker: Benson now slightly favored, 30 to 29 (50.8 percent chance).

Governor, New Mexico

REPUBLICAN SEATAT CRITICAL RISK.

Democrat Bill Richardson is the man to beat. Hispanic Richardson is a former congressman, U.N. ambassador and energy secretary. Not without some negatives from all those inside jobs, especially Energy Department scandals that occurred during his watch, Richardson nonetheless has the advantage over Republican nominee, state Rep. John Sanchez, a Hispanic businessman and former Los Ranchos Village Trustee. Sanchez won national GOP notice when he defeated the Democratic speaker of the House to win a legislative seat in 2000 and when he nabbed the top nod this year.

The Political Oddsmaker: Richardson now favored, 6 to 5 (54.5 percent chance).

Governor, Oregon

DEAIOCRATIC SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK.

This open seat pits former Supreme Court Justice Ted Kulongoski (D) against former state Sen. Kevin Mannix (R). Kulongoski has the support of retiring Gov. John Kitzhaber (D), one of the few popular governors in the nation. Mannix won a close, messy three-way GOP primary after edging out two more moderate candidates, which positions him dangerously to the right as he now tries to win over moderate and independent swing voters.

The Political Oddsmaker: Kulongoski now favored, 9 to 7 (56.3 percent chance).

Governor, Pennsylvania

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Who says mayors don't have a life after City Hall? Former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell, who also served a stint as Democratic National Chairman, is the favorite to win this open governorship. His Republican opponent, Attorney General Mike Fisher, lags behind in the polls and has had trouble injecting energy into his underdog campaign. Rendell won the hard-fought Democratic primary on the basis of an impregnable Philadelphia base. The GOP nominee is now having a hard time cracking that base, especially the suburbs. If Rendell wins, he'll be the first candidate from his home town to capture the governorship since before World War I.

The Political Oddsmaker: Rendell now favored, 6 to 5 (54.5 percent chance).

Governor, Rhode Island

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

A Republican has held the helm of this Democratic state for eight years. Democrats believe it's time to take it back. Lawyer Myrth York, who was the Democratic nominee for governor in both 1994 and 1998, is giving it a third try. York, a former state senator who won a slim primary victory over Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, is campaigning on a platform of -- you guessed it! -- change. Her Republican opponent is retired businessman Don Carcierri, a community activist and former teacher. There is also a Green Party candidate and two independents.

The Political Oddsmaker: York now favored, 9 to 8 (52.9 percent chance).

Governor, South Carolina

DEMOCRATIC SEATATSERIOUS RISK.

Republicans handed Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges a tough opponent in former U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford, who won a big primary victory in the face of a vicious attack campaign against him. Sanford is aiming to win a large share of conservative Democrats and moderate Independents, pressing Hodges hard at every turn. Despite state economic and fiscal problems, Hodges has plenty of campaign money and is adept at handling strategic issues. His come-from-behind win four years ago against the GOP incumbent proved he's a scrapper.

The Political Oddsmaker: Hodges now slightly favored, 10 to 9 (52.6 percent chance).

Governor, South Dakota

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK

State Sen. Mike Rounds' stunning low-budget, purely positive, come-from-behind primary victory for the Republican nomination cast him as a grassroots "outsider" -- even though he currently serves as the state Senate's majority leader. Democrats are hoping that their man, former University of South Dakota President Jim Abbott, will be able to deflate the popularity bubble created by Rounds' primary upset. In a state that has fierce U.S. Senate and at-large U.S. House races attracting national attention and money, what promises to be a low-key gubernatorial contest may get short shrift. Though smart wagerers may not want to bet the whole ranch on Rounds, he's now favored to keep the governorship in GOP hands.

The Political Oddsmaker: Rounds now favored, 5 to 4 (55.6 percent chance).

Governor, Tennessee

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Term-limited Republican Gov. Don Sundquist is leaving office with high negative ratings, even among conservatives in his own party. In fact, he and this year's GOP gubernatorial nominee, U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary, are bitter adversaries who disagree on how to relieve the state's serious fiscal crunch. Hilleary opposes a state income tax and even ran ads against his GOP nomination rival, Sundquist's Lt. Gov. Jim Henry, that told voters, "a vote for him would be like giving Don Sundquist a third term." The Democratic nominee, wealthy entrepreneur Phil Bredesen, is a former mayor of Nashville and the beneficiary of internal Republican dissension. Bredesen lost the 1994 governor's election to Sundquist.

The Political Oddsmaker: Bredesen now slightly favored, 20 to 19 (51.3 percent chance).

Governor, Texas

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK.

Of course, Texas electing a Democratic governor while George W. Bush is in the White House would be an indirect slap in the popular president's face, which is why it's not likely to happen. However, current GOP Gov. Rick Perry, who took over when Bush resigned to assume the presidency, has not entrenched himself as a popular statewide figure. His opponent, wealthy businessman Tony Sanchez, poured millions of his own money into the Democratic nomination fight and has since spent millions more attacking and counterattacking Perry. Sanchez hopes to consolidate a black/ Hispanic base while reaching out to moderates and conservatives. Though Perry's poll numbers are lackluster, Sanchez still has a long way to go.

The Political Oddsmaker: Perry now favored 9 to 7 (56.3 percent chance).

Governor, Vermont

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK

Incumbent Democratic Gov. Howard Dean is off running for president, leaving the party's gubernatorial banner in the hands of Lt. Gov. Doug Racine. His chief opponent is Republican state Treasurer Jim Douglas. Former state Human Services Secretary Cornelius Hogan, a moderate who bolted the GOP because of its rightward drift, is running as an Independent. Polls have given Racine a lead. But here's the kicker: If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in this nine-candidate field, the election will be decided by the Legislature -- and the state House is in GOP hands but the Democrats now have a tiny state Senate majority.

The Political Oddsmaker: even.

Governor, Wisconsin

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Current Gov. Scott McCallum (R) assumed the post when former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson joined the Bush cabinet in 2001. McCallum has had a hard time establishing his bona fides as the state's top dog and is now in a rough struggle to win a term of his own. Economic and fiscal woes don't help. Democrats nominated Attorney General Jim Doyle after a contentious three-way September primary fight. Doyle is attacking McCallum for budget mismanagement, calling the caretaker's tenure a "reign of error."

The Political Oddsmaker: Doyle now slightly favored, 30 to 29 (50.8 percent chance).

Governor, Wyoming

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

Republican Gov. Jim Geringer is term-limited and his party is in a real fight to retain the mansion. Although this state is a strong GOP enclave in presidential politics, it has a periodic history of electing Democratic governors. The Republican nominee is an ex-Democrat -- former state House Speaker Eli Bebout -- an oil and gas executive and Air Force veteran. The Democrat is Dave Freudenthal, a former U.S. Attorney appointed by Pres. Clinton and a former state planning coordinator.

The Political Oddsmaker: Bebout now slightly favored, 40 to 39 (50.6 percent chance).

U.S. Senate, Arkansas

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

First-term Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R) is in a major battle with Attorney General Mark Pryor (D). Hutchinson's divorce and subsequent remarriage to a former staffer tarnished his personal reputation in the eyes of many voters. Pryor is the son of a former governor and senator, David Pryor. Recent polls mark Hutchinson as one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents.

The Political Oddsmaker: Even

U.S. Senate, Colorado

REP UBLICAN SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

Sen. Wayne Allard (R) has failed to consolidate his political base after his low--key first term. His opponent is former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland (D). In a rematch of the 1996 contest which Allard won with 51 percent of the vote, the first-term incumbent has been polling ahead of his rival, but remains in the danger zone. It's unlikely the GOP would have any chance of regaining Senate control if it drops this one.

The Political Oddsmaker: Allard now slightly favored, 12 to 11 (52.2 percent chance).

U.S. Senate, Georgia

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK.

First-term Sen. Max Cleland (D) lost three of his limbs in Vietnam and has been personally popular in this conservative-leaning state for a long time. But Republicans believe his voting record makes him vulnerable to a challenge from U.S. Rep. Saxby Chambliss (R). Though Cleland continues to post polling leads, the White House has targeted this as a possible pick-up opportunity; they realize that an upset here would likely mean the frail Democratic Senate majority would fall.

The Political Oddsmaker: Cleland now slightly favored, 6 to 5(54.5 percent chance).

U.S. Senate, Iowa

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

Three-term Sen. Tom Harkin (D) has worn out his welcome with many voters and is in a tough re-election fight against moderate U.S. Rep. Greg Ganske (R), a physician. Harkin's chairmanship of the Agriculture Committee is seen as an important feather in his cap, but polls show the populist Democrat's hard-edged personality turns off a lot of voters. A major issue in this race is the 2002 farm bill that Harkin sponsored, but Ganske opposed.

The Political Oddsmaker: Harkin now slightly favored, 8 to 7(53.3 percent chance).

U.S. Senate, Louisiana

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK

First-term Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) won her seat six years ago in a photo-finish, but has done a good job in the last 18 months solidifying her position. Because of this state s unique open elections system -- where all candidates, regardless of party, compete in the same Nov. 5 primary -- Republicans are fielding three andidates: Elections Commissioner Suzanne Terrell, U.S. Rep. John Cooksey, and state Rep. Tony Perkins. They hope to hold Landrieu under 50 percent of the primary vote, setting up a Dec. 7 runoff. Though the incumbent does not appear to be especially vulnerable, GOP strategists believe a runoff could weaken her chances in a December race that may prove to be a Senate control tie-breaker if the Nov. 5 election produces an even split elsewhere.

The Political Oddsmaker: Landrieu now favored, 4 to 3 (57.1 percent chance).

U.S. Senate, Minnesota

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Second-term Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) won his last two races with about 50 percent of the vote each time. In seeking a third term, he's breaking a two-term limit pledge, which has stained his image as a populist man of principle. His opponent is former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman, who lost a race for governor in 1998 to former wrestler Jesse Ventura. Both parties see this as a key contest, and are pouring money and national resources into it.

The Political Oddsmaker: Even.

U.S. Senate, Missouri

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK

Sen. Jean Carnahan (D) has never won an election. She was appointed to this seat after her late husband, former Gov. Mel Carnahan, was elected to it in 2000 after dying in a plane crash, defeating then-Sen. John Ashcroft, the current U.S. attorney general. Though Carnahan trumpets her support of Pres. Bush's war on terrorism and his 2001 tax cut, Republicans have taken aim at her tenuous position. Her opponent is former U.S. Rep. Jim Talent, who lost a close gubernatorial contest in 2000.

The Political Oddsmaker: Even.

U.S. Senate, Montana

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK.

Four-term Sen. Max Baucus (D) is routinely viewed as potentially vulnerable because of the conservatism of this state. As chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, Baucus has tried to steer a moderate course; the role he played in passage of Pres. Bush's 2001 tax cut, which angered Democratic colleagues, is a good example. Last time, Baucus won re-election by a 50-45 percent margin. His opponent is State Sen. Mike Taylor, a resourceful conservative businessman and rancher.

The Political Oddsmaker: Baucus nom favored, 5 to 4 (55.6 percent chance,).

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire

REPPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

On Sept. 10, Republican Bob Smith became the first sitting U.S. Senator to lose a party primary since 1992. His failed 1999 presidential candidacy, and his brief abandonment of the Republican Party that came as a result, shook GOP voter confidence in his ability to hang on to this seat in the face of a strong challenge by Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, the Democratic candidate. The Republican nominee is three-term U.S. Rep. John E. Sununu, son of former governor and White House chief of staff John H. Sununu. This has always been a 2002 trouble spot for the GOP, although Shaheen has problems of her own and the Republican position seems to be stronger now that Smith is out of the way.

The Political Oddsmaker: Even.

U.S. Senate, New Jersey

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

First-term Sen. Robert Torricelli (D) spent the better part of the last two years under federal investigation for personal and campaign finances. Though he was not indicted, the Senate reprimanded him for his conduct. These legal troubles have aggravated the controversial incumbent's negative ratings, and gotten him into hotter water with the voters. He's opposed by GOP businessman Doug Forrester. Though this is a Democratic state -- with a strong party base that usually does--n't come together until the last days of hard-fought elections -- Torricelli has become the issue in this race, and that gives the GOP a real shot at picking it up.

The Political Oddsmaker: Even.

U.S. Senate, North Carolina

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK.

This open seat was created by the retirement of longtime Sen. Jesse Helms (R). The clear favorite is former Reagan/Bush cabinet secretary Elizabeth Dole (R), an unsuccessful 2000 GOP presidential contender and wife of former Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas. Though Dole's personal popularity is high, Democrats are hoping their standard-bearer, former Clinton chief-of-staff Erskine Bowles, can make this a race. They're counting on a mistake-prone frontrunner to slip. But controversies involving Bowles' business record proved to be fodder for attacks against him in the primary -- and these issues won't likely go away. Looks like Bowles has an uphill climb to topple Dole in her native, though recently revisited, home state.

The Political Oddsmaker: Dole now favored, 5 to 4 (55.6 percent chance).

U.S. Senate, Oregon

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

First-term Sen. Gordon Smith (R) usually says and does all the "right" things, but he hasn't warmed the hearts of enough voters to guarantee an easy re-election. His poll numbers have been unimpressive in a state that, in the last four years, has elected a Democratic governor and senator, as well as throwing its electoral votes to Al Gore. Smith is opposed by Democratic Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Could be close.

The Political Oddsmaker: Smith now favored, 7 to 6 (53.8 percent chance).

U.S. Senate, South Carolina

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK.

GOP Sen. Strom Thurmond has finally called it quits on his 46-year Senate career. U.S. Rep. Lindsey Graham (R) is the frontrunner for the open seat. Graham gained national attention as a House impeachment manager against Pres. Clinton and, later, as a supporter of Sen. John McCain's presidential bid in the contentious South Carolina primary. His opponent is Alex Sanders, a capable campaigner who is a former College of Charleston president and a former state senator. If there is a Democratic/populist wave that sweeps the nation, as Democrats hope, this race could tighten. But for now, it's Graham's to lose.

The Political Oddsmaker: Graham now favored, 5 to 4 (55.6 percent chance).

U.S. Senate, South Dakota

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Six years ago, then-U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson (D) was the only Senate challenger to topple an incumbent. This time, Sen. Johnson is himself the vulnerable incumbent, fighting hard to hold back a strong bid by U.S. Rep. John Thune (R). Being a House member from this state is a good launching pad to seek a Senate seat because both posts are elected statewide; John son proved that last time and Thune is hoping to prove it again. Though Johnson and Thune are the candidates, and competent ones at that, they are often seen as stand-ins for Tom Daschle, the Senate Democratic leader also from this state, and President Bush, who won South Dakota by a sizable 60-38 percent margin in 2000. A Republican win would be a stinging slap at archenemy Daschle. In such a small state, media dollars go a long way and South Dakota voters have already been served up more ads than most voters ever see. Polls rate it close.

The Political Oddsmaker: even.

U.S. Senate, Tennessee

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT POTENTIAL RISK.

Though he showed some weakness on his right flank during the hard-fought GOP primary, former presidential candidate and two-term Gov. Lamar Alexander (R) is the odds-on favorite to hold this seat for his party in November. His Democratic opponent, seventh-term U.S. Rep. Bob Clement of Nashville, has an uphill climb. Clement's late father Frank, was a three-term governor.

The Political Oddsmaker: Alexander now favored, 5 to 4 (55.6 percent chance).

U.S. Senate, Texas

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

When Republican Sen. Phil Gramm announced his retirement, it was expected this open seat would remain in GOP hands. But so far, polls show the race to be close. The Republican nominee, Attorney General John Cornyn, is well positioned for victory but he's yet to gain much traction. He's being pressed hard by former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, a moderate who has preserved key alliances in his home town's conservative business community. Kirk is the only major-party African American U.S. Senate nominee this year.

The Political Oddsmaker: Cornyn now slightly favored, 9 to 8 (52.9 percent chance).

U.S. House, Connecticut 5

NEW DISTRICT.

Reapportionment put 10th-term U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) into the same district with third-term U.S. Rep. Jim Maloney (D). Maloney survived two close contests in 1998 and 2000, winning 54 percent last time. Johnson won an easier 63-33 percent victory last time, after burying her rival with a massive spending advantage. Both are running hard, with considerable national party support.

The Political Oddsmaker: Johnson now slightly favored, 15 to 14 (51.7 percent chance).

U.S. House, Indiana 2

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Incumbent Tim Roemer (D) isn't running -- he had a surprisingly close call in 2000 -- and the open seat is a tight contest between former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D), who lost a Senate bid in 1986, and lawyer/businessman Chris Chocola, who came within five-points of unseating Roemer last time. If this race turns hard either way, it may be an early election night signal of which way House control will go.

The Political Oddsmaker: Chocola now slightly favored, 15 to 14 (51.7 percent chance).

U.S. House, Maine 2

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Incumbent John Baldacci (D) is running for governor. Democrat Michael Michaud, state Senate president pro tem and paper millworker, has his hands full as he battles to hold this seat for his party. He's opposed by Kevin Raye, formerly chief of staff to GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe.

The Political Oddsmaker: even.

U.S. House, Maryland 8

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Eight-term U.S. Rep. Connie Morella, perhaps the most liberal Republican in Congress, is in a tough fight thanks to a Democratic-drawn reapportionment plan that added thousands of Democrats to her wealthy, well-educated, metro Washington, D.C. district. In the last election, a Democratic lobbyist with a fat wallet and thin name recognition challenged Morella and held her to a narrow six-point win. Democrats think their nominee this time, state Sen. Chris Van Hollen -- who upset the Kennedy family entry, state Del. Mark Shriver, in an expensive Sept. 10 primary -- is working hard to topple the GOP incumbent. But Morella is no pushover and her personal popularity transcends partisan pull for many Democrats.

The Political Oddsmaker: Morella now slightly favored, 20 to 19 (51.3% chance).

U.S. House, Minnesota 2

DEMOCRATIC SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

Four-term U.S. Rep. Bill Luther (DFL) was first elected from the 6th District. He survived two tough re-election battles in 2000 and 1998 by two- to four-point margins. Going into this cycle, reapportionment gave him the option of running for re-election in the new 2nd District, against U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy (R), or in the new 6th District, where he'd have to oppose retired Marine Corps officer John Kline (R), the man who came so close to defeating him in 1998 and 2000. Luther opted for the 6th, and faces a tough race.

The Political Oddsmaker: Even.

U.S. House, New Hampshire 1

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK.

This seat is now occupied by Republican U.S. Rep. John Sununu, who left it to make a Senate bid. Carrying the GOP banner this time is businessman Jeb Bradley, a state legislator who led a large, noisy primary field. State Rep. Martha Fuller Clark, who chalked up an impressive 45 percent of the vote against Sununu's 53 percent here in 2000, is the Democratic nominee.

The Political Oddsmaker: Even.

U.S. House, New Mexico 2

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT CRITICAL RISK

Eleven-term incumbent Joe Skeen (R) isn't running, leaving a wide open race between Republican businessman Steve Pearce, a former state legislator and Sen-ate candidate, and Democratic state Sen. John Arthur Smith, a real estate appraiser.

The Political Oddsmaker: even.

U.S. House, Pennsylvania 17

NEW DISTRICT.

This new district, centered in the south central part of the state with Harrisburg as the population center, pits tenth-term U.S. Rep. George Gekas (R) against fifth-term U.S. Rep. Tim Holden (D). Holden won his last race by a two-to-one margin in the old 6th District. Gekas had no problem getting re-elected from the old 17th district. Both sides will fight this one all the way down to the wire with plenty of national help.

The Political Oddsmaker: Gekas now slightly favored, 40 to 39 (50.6 percent chance).

U.S. House, South Dakota-At-Large

REPUBLICAN SEAT AT SERIOUS RISK.

When U.S. Rep. John Thune (R) left this at-large seat open to run for the Senate, Republicans were hopeful that it would remain in safe hands with GOP Gov. Bill Janklow in the race. But Democratic candidate Stephanie Herseth, a 31-year old lawyer, has proven to be an appealing candidate. Herseth's family is steeped in South Dakota politics: her grandfather (Ralph) was governor; her grandmother (Lorna) was secretary of state; and her father (Lars) was a state legislator. Janklow -- who has now been governor for 16 of the last 24 years (he lost a Senate bid in 1986) -- is still a formidable figure, but this is no cake walk as Herseth is closing the gap.

The Political Oddsmaker: Janklow now slightly favored, 15 to 14 (51.7 percent chance).

... and There's More.

Of course, there are many other hot races across the nation in addition to these 50. For example, the New York governor's election is a spirited three-way affair with Republican Gov. George Pataki, Democrat Carl McCall and Independent Tom Golisano. Though Pataki's broad popularity makes him the clear favorite, McCall's party base and Golisano's $50 million to $70 million campaign budget makes the campaign interesting.

Other incumbent governors -- including Mike Huckabee (R) in Arkansas, Bob Taft (R) in Ohio, John Rowland (R) in Connecticut, Roy Barnes (D) in Georgia and Dirk Kempthorne (R) in Idaho, who were considered safe re-election bets earlier in the year, have recently seen their poll numbers decline and have started looking over their shoulders at opponents who are closing in. While the majority of these state executives will likely win again -- most of their opponents started off underfunded without strong statewide recognition -- at least one or two of them could soon find their way onto the "serious" list -- and maybe even the "critical" list before long.

In addition to the U.S. Senate races listed, underdog rivals have high hopes in other states, too. A hot race is underway in Maine, with Democrat Chellie Pingree charging hard against frontrunner Susan Collins, the incumbent GOP senator. The Oklahoma Senate contest has reached the boiling point as well, but with Sen. James Inhofe (R) holding on to a sizable lead.

At the U.S. House level, there are many other highly competitive races not among the 50 races selected. They include open seats in Alabama (3), Arizona (1), Colorado (4 and 7), California (18). Florida (24), Georgia (3 and 11), Louisiana (5), Maryland (2), Nevada (3), New Jersey (5), Oklahoma (4), Ohio (3), Tennessee (4) and Texas (5).

There are also two pair of incumbent congressmen facing off in reapportionment-created battles: In Mississippi, Democrat Ronnie Shows is opposing Republican Chip Pickering, and in Illinois, Republican John Shimkus faces Democrat David Phelps.

Other congressional incumbents now favored but who are in pitched battles, putting them at potential or serios risk, include: Republicans Charlie Bass (New Hampshire 2), Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia 2), Robin Hayes (New Carolina 8), Tom Latham (Iowa 4), Ann Northup (Kentucky 3), Jim Leach (Iowa 2), Jim Nussle (Iowa 1), Clay Shaw (Florida 22), Rob Simmons (Connecticut 2) and Heather Wilson (New Mexico 1); and Democrats Leonard Boswell (Iowa 3), Julia Carson (Indiana 7), Baron Hill (Indiana 9), Rick Larsen (Washington 2), Ken Lucas (Kentucky 4), Jim Matheson (Utah 2), Dennis Moore (Kansas 3) and Earl Pomeroy (North Dakota), Karen Thurman (Florida 5) and Patrick Toomey (Pennsylvania 15).

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