What mattered? - On the record - elections 2002

Now that the 2002 election season is complete, it's time to take a look at what mattered on the campaign trail:

* Sept. 11. Ultimately, the terrorist attacks did impact the politics of 2002. Obvious effects were twofold: First, the national agenda shifted from domestic issues to foreign policy and defense. Second, it gave George W. Bush and members of his administration the opportunity to demonstrate leadership in a time of grave peril. Both helped Republicans.

A less obvious effect was on the politics of the economy. That became clear the week of the one-year anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks when national polling data showed that voters viewed a worsening economy as the chief impact of those attacks. That was a significant finding. It meant that voters weren't ready to blame the Republican White House for the nation's economic troubles. Expectations that Democrats would surge based on deepening economic concerns were unfounded. The international situation had made it nearly impossible for Democrats to draw a partisan bead on the issue.

* Voter turnout. For months, political analysts -- including this one -- kept saying that election day mobilization would determine the outcome of enough close races to make a national difference. Though most observers kept an eye on the Democrats in this regard -- we saw how they mobilized large numbers of blacks and union members in both 1998 and 2000 -- the real turnout story this year was how the President proved to be the most effective turnout weapon either party had. Bush's ability to ignite enthusiasm among the GOP base, without turning off swing voters or stirring up opposition backlash, was unprecedented. No other modern president has been able to accomplish such a delicate task in a midterm election. Not Bill Clinton. Not Ronald Reagan. Not even John Kennedy or Dwight Eisenhower. White House strategists understood this opportunity when few others did, and they wisely sent the President into key states in the last days of the election.

* Grassroots effort. Republican troops staged effective field operations across the nation, using their "72 hour plan" in many places to great effect. Georgia was a case in point, where GOP underdogs not only won the governorship and a Senate seat, but were elected in two U.S. House districts that had been drawn for Democratic advantage.

Strong voter ID and get-out-the-vote contact programs helped convert personal support for the President's leadership into hard numbers at the polls. Turnout also played a role in GOP state legislative gains, where Republicans now lead Democrats for the first time since the 1950s, and in the Colorado Senate race, where an estimated 45 percent of Republican votes were cast absentee.

* Debates. For years, political strategists have viewed candidate debates as annoyances, mere speed bumps along the road to victory. But this year, that viewpoint proved myopic. Arguably, at least three Senate races (in Missouri, Minnesota and Georgia) and two gubernatorial races (Florida and Massachusetts) turned largely on candidate debate performances. Skeptical voters, numbed by the blaze of often confusing and irritating attack ads, apparently saw debates as opportunities to sort out genuine candidate differences.

* Unexpected events. By late September, Doug Forrester of New Jersey was favored to defeat Democratic Sen. Bob Torricelli. One week later, Torricelli was out of the race and a 78-year old former senator named Frank Lautenberg had taken his place, and the lead.

On the morning of Oct. 25, Sen. Paul Wellstone was locked in a tight battle with challenger Norm Coleman. That afternoon, Wellstone was gone. Four days later, a former vice president named Walter Mondale became Coleman's new rival, and the campaign's new frontrunner. But a televised memorial service for Wellstone -- of all things -- changed the race's dynamics against the Democrats, and five days later, Coleman was the victor.

* Faces. Four years ago, the face of the national Republican leadership was Newt Gingrich, Dick Armey and Trent Lott -- legislators with relatively high negative ratings among voters nationwide. But this election, the face of the GOP leadership was George W. Bush, Richard Cheney, Colin Powell, Donald Rumsfeld and Rudy Giuliani -- executives with very strong positive ratings. This new GOP face reassured many previously skeptical swing voters.

In every election, we re-learn old lessons and pick up new ones. Last November was no exception.

Ron Faucheux is editor-in-chief of Campaigns & Elections magazine. For his ongoing handicapping of elections across the nation, see The Political Oddsmaker, available on the Web at www.campaignline.com.

COPYRIGHT 2002 Campaigns & Elections, Inc.
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