Hisotric role models for '04 - On the Record - presidential candidates, United States

History, it has been said, repeats itself. And as the crew angling for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination get their careers in gear, they have ample historical role models to follow.

Sen. John F. Kerry may be the Michael Dukakis of this race. A "Massachusetts liberal" (my apologies), Kerry is a dedicated public servant who, critics say, lacks the common touch. They said that about Dukakis, too. But don't forget: Dukakis won the 1988 Democratic nomination, and his party sent him into battle against a Republican named...George Bush.

But Kerry has another role model in mind, the other JFK. John F. Kennedy was a Massachusetts senator at the time of his election to the presidency in 1960. (Perhaps Kennedy wasn't much of a liberal in those days, but we can still get away with calling him one for purposes of this year's comparisons.) Kerry's eloquence, cool dignity, war record, impressive policy expertise (especially on foreign affairs and defense) and enormous family wealth are all reminiscent.

Then there's U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt. If the man from Missouri is to win the nomination, he will have to win it by using the Walter Mondale model, which means securing an early, all-out commitment of support from organized labor. Though polls show Gephardt's public appeal is limited, a full--court press by labor would give him an organization--and delegates--in just about every state. That won't guarantee a Gephardt nomination--Dick Gephardt, you're no Walter Mondale?--but it would give him a grassroots base that other candidates will lack. Whether the union leadership is ready to put all its chips on Gephardt remains to be seen.

Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina sees himself as the Bill Clinton of 2004. Not only is Edwards a smooth operator from the South, he'll use his experience talking to skeptical juries as a trial lawyer to try to replicate Clinton's neat trick of coming off as both moderate and populist. Edwards--as did Clinton--understands the mathematical importance of locking up black votes in the South. When the Democratic nomination field is all white--as it was in 1976, 1980, 1992 and 2000- the candidate who is able to roll up big majorities among blacks, especially in southern primaries, has ultimately won. That was the victory formula for southerners Jimmy Carter, Clinton and Al Gore. It could be the Edwards formula, too--provided, however, that the field is all white. Should Rev. Al Sharpton--who aims to be the Jesse Jackson of this election--or should a combination of African American favorite sons (and daughters) run, as a number of serious strategists are now recommending, that could doom the Edwards play.

Vermont's former Gov. Howard Dean wants to be the Carter of this contest. An unknown former governor with a high IQ who goes from underdog to top dog in a few simple caucus and primary steps is the path Dean is trying to follow. But unlike farmer Carter, Dr. Dean may lack a solid regional base. He also lacks a foil. Carter had George Wallace to run against, and that gave Carter added stature in the South, and widespread appreciation outside the South, when the moderate from Georgia disposed of the rabble-rouser from Alabama.

Sen. Joe Lieberman has two men of history he hopes to emulate. One is Franklin Roosevelt, also a formerly unsuccessful vice presidential nominee who came back and ran for president with, ah, some success. And, of course, John Kennedy again, also a New England senator; but more significantly, the man who broke an ancient religious barrier.

Other presidential wannabes--Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Gary Hart and Wesley Clark --may also find road maps in history. But that may not always be so easy. The nomination of current non-candidate Hillary Clinton, for example, would break all molds. Her personal role model, Eleanor Roosevelt, may have been a major political player in her day, but she never ran for President--or anything else.

Florida Sen. Bob Graham, who could be the strongest general election candidate of them all, does not have an obvious historic model, either. A three-term senator and former governor from a state that has never produced a President, Graham would have to clear his own path. But, then again, so did Woodrow Wilson (a first term New Jersey governor and former college president) and William-Jennings Bryan (a 36-year old former two-term congressman from Nebraska) when they won presidential nominations.

History may be bunk, as Henry Ford suggested. But don't tell that to these guys. They need the inspiration.

Ron Faucheux is editor-in-chief of Campaigns & Elections magazine. For his ongoing handicapping of elections across the nation, see The Political Oddsmaker, available on the Web at www.campaignline.com.

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