Early Senate handicapping for '04: short of an across-the-board Bush-Republican collapse, Democrats will have their hands full holding the line on what they already have in the Senate - On the Record - elections United States

As the nation's attention is fixed on international dangers, war and the domestic economy, candidates are already readying their campaigns for 2004. Once again, control of the U.S. Senate sits on the block.

Republicans and Democrats split the Senate 50-50 in the 2000 election, giving the GOP control since Vice President Cheney could break the tie. Of course, that situation didn't last long; the switch of Jim Jeffords of Vermont soon tilted Senate control to the Democrats. Then, in the 2002 election, Republicans roared back and regained control, 51-48.

Though Democrats hope 2004 gives them a Senate comeback, an early state-by-state analysis indicates that could be a difficult goal to achieve. Short of an across-the-board Republican collapse that Democrats think could happen if Bush Administration economic and foreign policies tank, Democrats will have their hands full holding the line on what they already have.

Let's look at the early prospects and see where the hottest races are likely to be found:

Democrats already have one incumbent who has announced retirement plans. By bowing out of the '04 race, conservative Democrat Zell Miller of Georgia opened up his state's field, giving Republicans a serious chance at a pick up.

Additionally, Democrats may have to defend a least two open seats caused by presidential ambitions. Regardless of whether North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stays in or drops out of the White House derby, Republicans will have a solid shot to pick up this seat. Edwards' national candidacy may tug him precariously to the left of most Tar Heel voters, which means he could have a hard race even if he seeks re-election.

If Florida's Sen. Bob Graham stays in the presidential derby and forgoes another Senate bid, the GOP will charge hard to gain this premier swing state -- putting this seat into play.

Democrats have a number of incumbents in jeopardy. One is South Dakota's Tom Daschle, the Senate Minority Leader. Though Democrats held on to the state's other Senate seat last year against a fierce GOP assault that came within 524 votes of defeating Sen. Tim Johnson (D), they may have a tough time saving the liberal Daschle -- who, as a visible partisan leader, is a top target of conservatives nationwide.

Democratic Sen. Fritz Hollings of South Carolina won close re-elections in 1992 (50-47 percent) and 1998 (53-46 percent) against underfunded candidates. Assuming that Hollings runs again -- he'll be 82 next year -- this state's large GOP electorate could be a stumbling block.

Washington's Patty Murray (D) also may be on thin ice, depending upon whether she attracts a strong, first-tier Republican rival with adequate financing. The same may be said about California's Barbara Boxer (D) -- although her incumbency is a bigger advantage in such an expensive state; any challenger would need a massive war chest lust to have a fighting chance.

Nevada's Harry Reid, the Senate Democratic Whip, barely survived a tight, bloody battle in '98. He could face another fight in '04.

Despite these soft spots, Democrats have no monopoly on vulnerability. At least two Republican incumbents are now at risk. One is Peter Fitzgerald (R) from Illinois, who won in 1998 largely on then-incumbent Carol Moseley-Braun's (D) personal negatives. Fitzgerald faces re-election with more than a few fences to mend in his own party -- and a field of determined Democrats who are gunning for him. Polls show his ratings are perilously low -- and his comments supposedly quoting President Bush about assassinating Saddam Hussein didn't help.

The other GOP incumbent in trouble is Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Murkowski was appointed to the Senate earlier this year when her father, former Sen. Frank Murkowski (R), resigned his seat after being elected governor last November. The problem for Murkowski is not just that she was appointed to the seat but that she was appointed by her father -- which complicates her electoral positioning despite the fact that she was, at the time of her appointment, already a state legislative leader with her own political bona fides. If former Gov. Tony Knowles (D) runs, she'll face a stiff challenge, although Murkowski still has time to consolidate her prospects.

Republicans also are cautiously watching two other of their incumbents who may face tricky electoral paths. One is Jim Bunning (R) of Kentucky, who won his seat last time by less than a one point margin. The other is Arlen Specter (R) of Pennsylvania -- an independent-minded moderate who now faces a primary challenge from conservative U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey.

Ron Faucheux is editor-in-chief of Campaigns & Elections magazine. For his ongoing handicapping of elections across the nation, see The Political Oddsmaker, available on the Web at www.campaignline.com.

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