28 years - On the Record

What do you call a born-again, pro-life, pro-gun Southern candidate who disparages lawyers and big government?

Republican, you say?

What about Jimmy Carter?

That's exactly how Carter campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1976. It gives you a sense of how far both major parties have moved since then.

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Times change, and so do partisan alignments. A look at state voting data show it in stark relief:

* Of the 23 states that voted Democratic in 1976, 14 flipped 24 years later and voted for Republican George W. Bush in 2000.

* Of the 27 states that voted for Republican Gerald Ford in 1976, 11 shifted party allegiance and voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000.

That means exactly half of the 50 states switched sides over the course of six elections.

The biggest change was in the South. Carter carried every part of Dixie except Virginia (and three border states: West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri). By 2000, the tables had turned: Bush carried every Southern state plus the three border states for the GOP. Additionally, Carter nabbed Ohio--another state Bush would carry.

Ford won a range of states that have since become Democratic strongholds, from Connecticut to California, Vermont to Illinois, New Jersey to Oregon. The 1976 GOP nominee also won Washington, New Mexico, Michigan, Iowa and Maine--states the 2000 GOP nominee lost.

Of course, many of this year's campaign volunteers who have been ringing doorbells and attending meetups, may view 1976 as ancient history. After all, some of them weren't even born then.

But at the risk of showing my age, the case can be made that 1976 was really not that long ago. It was after Vietnam, after Watergate--and after passage of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which enfranchised blacks and sparked an exodus of millions of southern whites out of the Democratic Party.

Since 1976, both parties have polarized. Ronald Reagan, who defeated Carter in 1980 with some of the same votes Carter had used to unseat Ford four years earlier, would reshape the base of the Republican Party. In response, Democrats reassembled their coalition as well.

Race and culture have become key determinants of partisan affiliation. Today, most minorities and single whites are Democrats. Most married whites and churchgoers are Republicans.

Given President Bush's current lead in general election polls, one may wonder why top Republican strategists are so concerned about another close race. The answer is in the Electoral College vote count: Since 1992, Democrats have carried 20 states plus the District of Columbia to accumulate 260 votes--only 10 shy of a winning majority--three elections in a row.

For Republicans to win in 2004, they must carry all 16 states they won in the last three elections (135 electoral votes) plus pick off nearly all of the remaining 14 states (143 electoral votes) that have bounced around.

Eleven states (Connecticut, Maine, Vermont, Illinois, Iowa, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California, Oregon and Washington) have shifted from mostly Republican voting between 1968 and 1992 to Democratic voting in 1996 and 2000, while only one state--West Virginia--moved from Democratic to Republican in the same periods.

Those numbers are sobering indeed for any Republican strategist, despite the fact that the political winds have been blowing strongly in their direction. But times change, as do electoral coalitions and candidate appeals. Studying recent history gives us a baseline for this year's contest--and how its outcome may change things once again.

Ron Faucheux, author of "Running for Office," and editor of "Winning Elections" and "The Debate Book," is contributor-at-large for Campaigns & Elections magazine. For his ongoing handicapping of elections nationwide, see The Political Oddsmaker on the Web at www.campaignline.com.

COMMENTARY BY RON FAUCHEUX

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