The magic formula? Running differential: as evidenced by the plight of the Ravens, this telling statistic often means the difference between victory and defeat - The Numbers Game

UNLIKE NUMBERS from other sports, football statistics can be extremely misleading. Prodigious numbers don't always translate into prodigious win totals.

For example, a lot of mediocre teams rack up incredible passing numbers largely because they have to play catch-up much of the time. That may look good in fantasy leagues, but it often doesn't result in a trip to the playoffs.

There are, however, some statistics that correlate very well with winning. And most of them can be traced to the running game.

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jerome Bettis explained the importance of a strong ground attack to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "The key is the running game. We have a tendency to overlook it, because you can score points so fast in the passing game. But the running game controls the clock, controls the game. Teams are seeing that. In lieu of maybe the defense not being as good, they're saying we need to control the ball: `Let's run the ball, let's keep it a shorter game.'

"The Rams are probably the biggest team to thank for that because people are :saying, `How do you defeat a team like that?' Well, you run the ball and keep the ball out of their hands."

Still, it's not enough simply to run the ball well. The Cincinnati Bengals ranked second in the league in rushing yards last season, powered by the great Corey Dillon, yet were 4-12. Of course, they owned a dreadful passing attack, which sure played a part in that poor record. In 1999, the San Francisco 49ers placed first in rushing. Not only did they lead the league in yardage, but they ginned a sensational 5.0 yards per carry. But like the Bengals last season, they ended up 4-12.

Running the football is only one piece of the puzzle. Just as important is stopping the run. Teams that perform both tasks successfully often are winners.

That, then, is the magic formula.

It's all about rushing differential, which means the difference between a team's rushing yards gained and allowed. Here are the teams that had the best rushing differentials in 2000:

The Best Rushing Differentials of 2000

Team           Gained    Allowed    Differential    Record

Baltimore       2,199       970        +1,229        12-4
Oakland         2,470     1,551          +919        12-4
N.Y. Giants     2,009     1,156          +853        12-4
Denver          2,311     1,598          +713        11-5
Tennessee       2,084     1,390          +694        13-3
Pittsburgh      2,248     1,693          +555         9-7
Tampa Bay       2,066     1,648          +418        10-6
New Orleans     2,068     1,672          +396        10-6
Cincinnati      2,314     1,925          +389        4-12
Buffalo         1,922     1,559          +363         8-8

You'll note that seven of those 10 teams went to the playoffs, and only Cincinnati had a losing record. The top-ranked Ravens won the Super Bowl, while the No. 3 Giants were the NFC champions. The top 10 teams in rushing differential combined for a 101-59 record, or a .631 winning percentage. In this case, folks, the numbers don't lie.

Particularly telling is the record of the bottom 10 teams in rushing differential. They struggled to a dreadful 50-110 record, and none made the playoffs. Only the 9-7 New York Jets, who ranked 24th in this category with a minus-417 figure, managed to avoid a losing record.

There's no question that teams with a lousy rushing differential aren't postseason material. And teams with a middle-of-the-pack rushing differential need to excel in nearly every other area to make the playoffs.

For example, the Green Bay Packers have posted so-so rushing differentials in recent seasons. They missed the playoffs in 1999 and 2000 but still qualified with average figures in the previous two seasons. With the brilliance of Brett Favre in the passing game, they had enough talent to win games anyway. However, when they won it all in the 1996 season, the Packers produced a fine plus-422 differential.

No team knows the importance of stopping the run better than the Ravens. "We face all these backs that are supposed to be 100-yard threats, but we just go out and do what we do. And that's our focus the entire year," says All-Pro linebacker Ray Lewis. "Can somebody run for 100 yards against us? It would be hard. They would need a 40-yarder to get close."

While the Ravens' run defense remains extremely difficult to penetrate, their rushing offense took a huge hit when they lost Jamal Lewis for the entire 2001 season. His 1,364 rushing yards last season enabled them to rank fifth in yards gained on the ground (2,199). With just 970 yards allowed, the Ravens had an unbelievable plus-1,229 rushing differential.

Without Lewis, a valuable piece of the rushing-differential equation is missing. But, thanks to the sheer ferocity of the defense, the Ravens' differential still should be good enough for them to challenge for another Super Bowl title.

How important is rushing differential? The last three teams to lead the league in that category went on to become Super Bowl champs. In addition to the Ravens, the 1999 Rams (plus-870) and 1998 Denver Broncos (plus-1,189) paced the league in this category en route to titles.

Why did the Rams fail to defend their Super Bowl title last season? As we said, it's all about rushing differential Here's a look:

The Rams' Rushing Differential

Year    Gained    Allowed    Diff. (rank)    Record

1999     2,059     1,189      +870 (1st)      13-3
2000     1,843     1,697      +146 (14th)     10-6

Although the Rams fell off a bit in rushing yards gained, they were still strong in that category, thanks to running back Marshall Faulk. It was their run defense that was mainly responsible for the huge drop in differential last year. They finished just 13th in rushing yards allowed after displaying a Ravens-like figure the year before that led the league.

Why is the correlation between this stat and winning so great? Running the ball successfully has a wide range of benefits. Teams that move the ball on the ground have less need to resort to high-risk pass attempts. Therefore, they normally turn the ball over less than passing teams. It also follows that forcing the opponent into passing situations by stopping the run creates more takeaway possibilities for the defense.

The Ravens soared to the NFL lead in 2000 in turnover margin with a plus-23 figure. In 1999, when their rushing differential was less than half of their 2000 figure, they finished with an equal number of giveaways and takeaways.

Meanwhile, the Rams fell to a weak minus-10 turnover margin in 2000 after a solid plus-five in their Super Bowl campaign. Winning the turnover battle makes winning games far easier. Last season's top five teams in turnover margin all made the playoffs.

Teams with a good rushing differential also usually experience more success inside the red zone, both offensively and defensively. The Ravens excelled in this area during their Super Bowl campaign, especially defensively.

"Our philosophy is: They don't score a touchdown, they don't win," says Ray Lewis. "They can have all the field goals they want. As long as they don't score a touchdown, we think we can win."

With the amazingly close correlation between rushing differential and winning, is it possible to come up with a figure that guarantees a playoff berth? Is there a magic number of sorts that virtually guarantees success?

Yes. That number appears to be 600. In the past three seasons, all 13 teams that had rushing differentials of better than 600 made the playoffs. Not all playoff teams reached this figure, but the teams that did locked up berths. It's simple: Substantially outgain the other teams on the ground, and you'll nearly always qualify for postseason.

You need to go back to the 1997 season to find a plus-600 club that missed the postseason. The Tennessee Oilers finished 8-8 despite a fine plus-841 figure. The other three teams that reached the 600 level that season all qualified. Including 1997 numbers, 16 of these 17 teams made the playoffs.

If you break down the plus-600 figure to a per-game basis, you only need to outrush your opponent by 37.5 yards per week. It sounds easy enough, but when every other team's goal is also to run the ball and stop the run, it's not that simple.

Knowing about the magic number and reaching it are two completely different matters. But for those teams that succeed on this front, good things come.

COPYRIGHT 2001 Century Publishing
COPYRIGHT 2001 Gale Group