Hitting the ground running: if history is an indication, LaDainian Tomlinson's stellar rookie season signals great things to come - The Numbers Game

HERE'S A SIMPLE THREE-step plan for instant improvement in the NFL: (1) Lose nearly all your games to earn a high draft pick, (2) select a star college running back, and (3) insert him into the starting lineup and let him run like crazy over opposing defenses.

Obviously, it's not that simple. That plan can fall apart quicker than you can say Curtis Enis. However, a great back in the right situation can certainly change a team's fortunes in a hurry. Unfortunately for teams subscribing to the three-step plan we've mentioned, a great college back doesn't always become a great NFL back. How can a team tell who'll achieve stardom? While it's impossible to know for sure before the player is drafted, the team can get a clear idea of how good he'll be almost as soon as he begins his NFL career.

San Diego Chargers rookie LaDainian Tomlinson is the latest in a long line of running backs to achieve instant NFL stardom. The No. 5 overall pick out of Texas Christian recently was asked if his early success surprised him.

"Not really," he said. "I expected to come in and do well. I said it from the beginning. I'm a guy that sets my goals high. I'm not a cocky person, but I believe I've been blessed with a talent to play football and run the football. That, s the way I go about things." Indeed, Tomlinson has a chance to climb near the top of the all-time rookie rushers list.

Since the inception of the 16-game season in 1978, 1,000-yard efforts from rookie running backs (or any running backs, for that matter) have become almost commonplace. The 1,000-yard plateau is not what it used to be, so we need a higher standard. To identify the greatest rookie runners, we'll up our figure to 1,200 yards.

No rookie back ever ran for 1,200 yards prior to the inception of the 16-game schedule. In the first year of the new schedule, Earl Campbell burst onto the scene with 1,450 yards. His record lasted all of one season; O.J. Anderson ran for 1,605 to shatter Campbell's mark. By the end of 1983, that record was broken twice more--first by George Rogers and then by Eric Dickerson, who raised the bar to the present record of 1,808.

Here's a look at all the rookie running backs who have gone for at least 1,200 yards:

Rookie Rushers With 1,200 Yards

Name                            Team    Year   Atts.  Yds.   Avg.  TDs

Eric Dickerson              L.A. Rams   1983   390   1,808   4.6   18
George Rogers             New Orleans   1981   378   1,674   4.4   13
O.J. Anderson     St. Louis Cardinals   1979   331   1,605   4.8   8
Edgerrin James           Indianapolis   1999   369   1,553   4.2   13
Curtis Martin             New England   1995   368   1,487   4.0   14
Mike Anderson                  Denver   2000   297   1,487   5.0   15
Barry Sanders                 Detroit   1989   280   1,470   5.3   14
Earl Campbell                 Houston   1978   302   1,450   4.8   13
Curt Warner                   Seattle   1983   335   1,449   4.3   13
Jerome Bettis               L.A. Rams   1993   294   1,429   4.9   7
Eddie George                  Houston   1996   335   1,368   4.1   8
Jamal Lewis                 Baltimore   2000   309   1,364   4.4   6
Rueben Mayes              New Orleans   1986   286   1,353   4.7   8
Billy Sims                    Detroit   1980   313   1,303   4.2   13
Marshall Faulk           Indianapolis   1994   314   1,282   4.1   11
Fred Taylor              Jacksonville   1998   264   1,223   4.6   14

A total of 16 rookies have reached 1,200 yards. In only one season since 1993 has a first-year runner failed to reach that plateau (1997). And there really should not have been an interruption in the streak. Corey Dillon fell 71 yards short in 1997, because he started just six games and played sparingly until the last part of the year. (The Cincinnati Bengals spent the first half of that season handing the ball to Ki-Jana Carter. In the final eight games, Dillon exploded for 933 yards.) Last season, both Mike Anderson (1,487) and Jamal Lewis (1,364) ran well past the 1,200 figure.

Do all these occurrences water down the achievement? If you glance at the chart, you can tell it takes a quality back to reach that level. In fact, the list includes some of the greatest backs to ever step onto a football field. Barry Sanders, Dickerson, OJ. Anderson, and Jerome Bettis went on to gain more than 10,000 career yards, and Campbell wound up just under 600 yards shy of that mark. Rogers, meanwhile, accumulated more than 7,000 career yards with the New Orleans Saints and Washington Redskins.

Other running backs in this group may well join the exclusive 10,000-yard club. Marshall Faulk and Curtis Martin are closing in, and Eddie George isn't far behind them. Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James, Anderson, and Lewis are just getting started, but they all appear headed for fine careers.

Should Tomlinson reach the 1,200-yard level this season, it obviously won't guarantee him future success. Still, given the names on tins list, you have to like his chances, provided he stays healthy. In most of the cases where the players fell short later in their careers, injuries played a role.

Lewis learned how difficult it is to sustain success when a torn ACL in training camp this year wiped out his 2001 season. Others from the aforementioned group experienced the sophomore, jinx as well. Former Seattle Seahawks great Curt Warner suffered a season-ending knee injury in the very first game of his second season. But he managed to bounce back and reach 1,000 yards in three of the next four years.

An injury cut short the extremely promising career of Billy Sims. The former Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 1,303 and 1,437 yards in his first two years with the Detroit Lions. But in 1984, just his fifth season, he suffered a knee injury from which he never recovered.

Still, no one in our 1,200-yard club can really be classified as a flash in the pan. The Saints' Rueben Mayes came the closest. After rushing for 1,353 yards as a rookie in 1986, he never again topped the 1000-yard mark. He did turn in a solid second season with 917 yards, but injuries shortened his career to just five years.

Opportunity obviously plays a huge role in the numbers rookie running backs put on the board. Most of the backs on our list were drafted by poor teams, opening the door for immediate playing time.

Tomlinson is a perfect example. The running back-starved Chargers really had no choice but to play him immediately. And his presence was pivotal to the Chargers winning their first three games of 2001 after a 1-15 disaster in 2000. While quarterback Doug Flutie and a strong defense also played a role in the hot start, Tomlinson was the biggest factor. How much has he transformed the running game? Terrell Fletcher was San Diego's leading rusher last year with 384 yards. Tomlinson surpassed that total after only four games, with a league-leading 412 yards.

Tomlinson follows the pattern of several rookie sensations on our chart. The year before the arrival of the running backs we've listed, their teams averaged a .363 winning percentage, or approximately a 6-10 record. Just two of the 16 teams made the playoffs, and both exited after their first game.

With the instant impact of these dynamic rookies, most of their teams shot forward dramatically in the standings. They jumped to a .523 winning percentage overall, and seven of the 16 teams made the playoffs. One of them, Lewis' Baltimore Ravens of 2000, even won the Super Bowl.

In recent seasons, the rookie backs on our list have played a huge part in some dramatic turnarounds. The past four--Taylor, James, Anderson, and Lewis--have helped lead their respective team to the playoffs. Taylor's Jacksonville Jaguars reached the playoffs the year before his arrival, but that's not the case with the other three. James' Indianapolis Colts shot from 3-13 in 1998 to 13-3 in his rookie season of '99. Anderson helped the Broncos jump from 6-10 in 1999 to 11-5 last year.

Lewis' Ravens were 8-8 in 1999 before going 12-4 last year. Lewis provided the missing ingredient for the Ravens. Although they already had an outstanding defense, they rarely moved the ball consistently, especially on the ground. They gained a total of 1,754 rushing yards in 1999 with Errict Rhett as their featured back. That ranked just 16th in the NFL Last year, Baltimore picked up 2,199 yards on the ground, which was fifth-best.

Chargers general manager John Buffer says running back is a position where a player can make an immediate impact, unlike, say, quarterback or offensive tackle. Running tends to be more instinctive. "You don't have to teach or coach good running backs to run with the ball," Buffer says.

Still, long-term success is by no means guaranteed. With this apparently in mind, Ravens tight end Shannon Sharpe directed some words of caution to his teammate Lewis following the running back's stellar rookie season: "As long as he continues to work and does what he did to get in this position, he'll be just fine. When you start reading the press clippings, listening to people tell you how great you are, and stop working out, that's when you set yourself up for failure."

Are you listening, LaDainian?

COPYRIGHT 2002 Century Publishing
COPYRIGHT 2001 Gale Group