The lessons of November 2nd: a Democratic perspective - Analysis

While the Republican sweep of the major races of Election '93 constitutes a temporary setback for Democrats, the implications are less conclusive than the national GOP spinmeisters would purport. The old adage that "all politics is local" is never more true than in these scattered state and local elections. It is difficult to believe, for instance, that the average Giuliani voter thought he or she was logging a protest against the Clinton Administration.

The ideological dynamic which might presage a dramatic realignment to the Republican Party was missing in the 1993 elections. It is unlikely that newly-elected Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who is pro-choice and pro-gay rights, could win many Republican primaries, while Democrat Jim Florio ran to the right of GOP victor Christine Todd Whitman on welfare reform and crime.

It remains to be seen, then, whether November 2nd represented a rejection of the national Democratic Party (a switch of only 38,000 votes would have caused Democratic victories in New York and New Jersey). In fact, a closer analysis of the 1993 election points to likely trends for the 1994 elections that will impact candidates of both parties.

* The anti-incumbent sentiment which marked recent elections is still very much in evidence. In New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, the incumbents (or candidates who represented the incumbent party) all went down to defeat. The winners this year happened to be Republicans, but incumbents of both parties will be facing the voters in 1994, and GOP candidates are poised to receive an equal share of the blame for voter uneasiness with the status quo as Democrats. For example, we have observed in focus groups that the voters' anger is directed at "those people in Washington," and not specifically aimed at Democrats.

* People are voting their frustration and fear, not their hopes. The collection of issues headed by crime and jobs that plays to the insecurity of middle class families played significant roles in nearly all of the 1993 races. Crime, in particular, rose dramatically in salience, even among suburban constituencies seemingly far removed from urban strife, and can be expected to remain a continuing focus in 1994.

On jobs, the concern is whether minimum-wage jobs that are replacing $15-an-hour, high-wage jobs are sufficient to help middle-class families make ends meet, as much as it is the fear of unemployment.

November 2nd showed voters' desire for positive action to help them meet challenges in their daily lives. The encouraging results for the GOP aside, neither political party controls issues which relate to the voters' personal insecurity.

* The message on taxes was mixed, but certainly does not look promising for Democrats at first blush. New Jersey Governor Jim Florio's $2.8 billion tax hike was responsible for his defeat at the hands of GOP nominee Christie Todd Whitman, who reignited voter resentment in the last week of an otherwise subpar campaign. Indeed, "taxes" was picked as the most important issue in the New Jersey campaign, and among those voters, Whitman won by an overwhelming 74 to 26 percent margin.

On the other hand, several tax-hike ballot measures were approved by voters around the country, such as a $1 billion bond measure in Texas to build prisons and mental health/retardation facilities, and California's Proposition 172, which made permanent a temporary sales tax to provide revenue for local public safety.

Voters are willing to stomach a tax increase if they feel tangible progress is being made. In New Jersey, fully 78 percent of voters rated the state's economy in negative terms, which countered governor Florio's assertion that the state was headed in the right direction because of his policies.

* From a pure "nuts and bolts" perspective, it is getting increasingly difficult to communicate with voters. There is a tremendous cynicism toward government and politics, and a profound sense of disconnection from the political process. Politics and elections are simply not relevant to people. As a result, the old rule of thumb that a television ad reached saturation at 600 gross rating points is outmoded. We have been finding that 800 to 900 GRPs are now needed to adequately punch an ad through to voters.

While Republicans deserve a grudging tip of the hat for their performance, they should be cautious. There is no doubt that Democrats face a difficult election cycle simply based on the historic performance of the President's party in midterm elections, but it is becoming evident that the strong change dynamic among the electorate will not operate solely on partisanship.

Fred Yang is vice president of Garin-Hart Strategic Research Group, a Washington, D.C.-based Democratic polling firm.

COPYRIGHT 1993 Campaigns & Elections, Inc.
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