Having a premarital birth reduces the likelihood a woman will marry

Premarital childbearing is generally not a choice women make because they expect not to marry. Rather, according to an analysis of data from four large U.S. surveys,(1) it tends to be unexpected and unwanted, and reduces a woman's likelihood of marrying. That likelihood is further reduced if the woman receives welfare. The analysis, which examined the experiences of women who gave birth as teenagers, also revealed that stigma associated with premarital childbearing does not appear to be an obstacle to marriage, and that the demands of parenthood seem not to impede women from participating in activities in which they may meet potential spouses.

The researchers used data primarily from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women (NLSYW), all of which gather information on cohabitation and marriage, fertility and an array of socioeconomic characteristics. The NSFG, conducted in 1988, included 8,450 women aged 15-44. The NSFH, fielded in 1987-1988, covered 13,017 women and men aged 19 and older. The NLSY is based on a national probability sample of men and women aged 14-21 in 1978; the data used in the study reflected the experiences of 5,369 women as of 1989. The NLSYW had an initial sample of 14-21-year-old women in 1968; the 1987 data, used in the analysis, included 3,639 respondents.

Applying a hazard model to data from the four surveys, the investigators found a strong negative association between premarital childbearing and marriage. Women who had had a premarital birth were 19-45% less likely than childless women to marry in any given month. With the addition of controls for several characteristics that influence the likelihood of marriage (such as race, mother's education and urban-rural residence), a significant, although weaker, association remained (except in the NLSY); women with children were 9-41% less likely than others to marry.

The researchers point out that it is useful to distinguish women who married their child's biological father from others, because a premarital birth may induce couples to marry or may lead them to marry, sooner than planned. When women who married within six months after giving birth were excluded from the calculations--on the assumption that they married their child's father--premarital childbearing was associated with a 20-53% reduced likelihood of marrying.

To investigate the effects of women's family background on the association between premarital childbearing and the likelihood of marriage, the researchers performed calculations using information on pairs of sisters, one of whom was married. Although only limited data were available (62 sister pairs, from the NLSY), a significant negative association remained; sisters who had had a premarital birth were 25% less likely to marry than those who had not had a child. In an analysis of data for 53 pairs of sisters from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, a longitudinal study begun in 1968, the investigators found even greater differences; women who had had a premarital birth were nearly 50% less likely than their sisters to marry.

Women who had given birth apparently substituted informal unions for marriage to some degree, but overall, they were less likely than childless women to enter any union. A hazard analysis of NSFG data on first unions revealed that mothers were 28% more likely than childless women to enter informal first unions and 29% less likely to marry; however, they were 14% less likely to enter any union. The pattern remained generally the same when the researchers varied the controls added to the calculations.

Having established the negative association between premarital childbearing and the likelihood of marriage, the investigators turned to an examination of the factors in that association. The NLSY, which asked about marital expectations, revealed no significant difference in premarital childbearing according to whether or not women expected to marry within five years (8% vs. 6%). However, among those who expected to marry, a smaller proportion of mothers than of childless women realized that expectation (28% vs. 45%). Meanwhile, the NSFG data showed that premarital births were substantially more likely than marital births to have been unwanted (73% vs. 34%). Thus, according to the researchers, rather than being a choice driven by women's feelings that their prospects for marrying were dim, premarital childbearing seemed to reduce the likelihood of marriage.

One-half of women who had a premarital birth received support through Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) at some point in the ensuing three years. Since marriage makes women ineligible to continue receiving AFDC, the researchers examined whether this assistance was a disincentive to marriage. The evidence suggests it was not: Results of a logit analysis of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics indicate that women who had had a child were about 25% less likely than other so many by age 3 and receipt of AFDC accounted for about one-fifth of the association. On the other hand, a logit model examining the effect of AFDC receipt on marriage expectations found only a small and nonsignificant association.

To determine whether any stigma associated with nonmarital childbearing affected the likelihood of marriage, the searchers studied the interaction between childbearing experience and remarriage patterns of divorced women. Estimates of a hazard model using NSFC data showed that divorced women with children were 34% less likely than their childless counterparts to remarry, and having had a premarital birth compounded the effect (further reducing the likelihood of marriage by 24%). However, the addition of controls related to the woman's background and marriage virtually eliminated the effect of premarital childbearing; therefore, The investigators concluded, a stigma was apparently not an impediment to marriage after a premarital birth.

The investigators considered whether single mothers had less time than their childless counterparts to engage in work and social activities where they might meet potential spouses. A regression analysis of data on 47 single mothers and 64 single childless women aged 50 and younger who participated in the 197-1976 Time Use in Economic and Social Accounts Survey revealed no significant difference in the amount of time they had available for "marriage market activities."

Finally, the investigators addressed the contribution of rising levels of premarital childbearing to declining levels of first marriage. Using NSFH data for women who were aged 40-44 in 1970 and in 1987-1988, they calculated that premarital childbearing may have accounted for roughly one-quarter of the decline in the likelihood o marriage over the nearly two decades separating these two groups of women.

In conclusion, the researchers note that "women generally are not having children nonmaritally as a response to poor marriage prospects. Rather, having a child outside of marriage appears to derail these women's existing plans. For most women, nonmarriage is the consequence, not the cause, of their nonmarital childbearing." They also comment that premarital childbearing may be related to an increased likelihood of subsequent poverty, both among women who never marry and among those who marry but experience marital disruption. Furthermore, they observe, premarital childbearing most likely has adverse consequences not only for the women, but also for their children, affecting their educational attainment, poverty level and welfare status.

Reference

1. N. G. Bennett, D. E. Bloom and C.K. Miller, "The Influence of Nonmarital Childbearing on the Formation of First Marriages," Demography, 32:47-61 1995.

Copyright The Alan Guttmacher Institute Sep 1995
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