Analysts Examine WiFi's Future

SANTA CLARA, CALIF.--The future of WiFi wireless technology will encompass voice, cellular networks, the military and even toys, analysts said Wednesday at a wireless industry event here.

In a panel discussion at the 802.11 Planet show, analysts were asked to predict the future of 802.11 wireless technology.

Within the past few months, announcements of 802.11a, 802.11b, and hybrid chipsets have established the wireless market. But one thing is clear – any new products in new spectrum ranges must be backward compatible with 802.11a and 802.11b products, analysts said. And although the 802.11g standard has yet to be standardized, analysts don't seem to think that certification is a major problem.

"Well, 802.11g will be finalized next year, so the next quarter might be an awkward period, but it should become stronger by fall 2003," said Dylan Brooks, an analyst for Jupiter Research.

And is the 5-Ghz frequency a limitation for 802.11a? "Not so," said Michael Disabato, an analyst at the Burton Group. "Well, it was an issue in Europe. But now that regulatory bodies are coming around specifically for 802.11a, more companies are joining in. The 5-Ghz frequency was not really the problem because HiperLAN used to work in these frequencies as well and it was widely accepted."

In addition to the myriad 802.11 standards, consumers should be worried about security, argued Kris Kozup, senior analyst for the Meta Group. "Anybody who is not thinking beyond security is missing the boat," he said.

Brooks disagreed, saying such concerns – at least in the home – were overblown. "The user could do something with the data anyway as long as he is smart enough and there are things like Firewire," Brooks said. "This is really the same concern media companies have been dealing with – restrictive distribution of products. They have been dealing with it and it is not so widespread to worry about."

As wireless clients become commodities, more companies are thinking of shifting from infrastructure into the service industry. Most wireless chipsets, or 28 percent, are sold into the home, with 25 percent going to educational institutions such as universities, and 12 percent into health care. About 8 percent of wireless chips are sold into retail, according to Allen Nogee a senior analyst for In-Stat/MDR. Wireless is most popular in the U.S. and Canada, where 65 percent of wireless chipsets are sold, Nogee found.

Copyright © 2002 Ziff Davis Media Inc. All Rights Reserved. Originally appearing in ExtremeTech.