General predicts drop in troops in Iraq

WASHINGTON -- The Army's second-ranking general said Thursday that the number of U.S. troops in Iraq would probably decline by early 2006, largely because of post-election progress in combating insurgents and training more Iraqi troops to take over security duties.

The officer, Gen. Richard A. Cody, the Army vice chief of staff, did not give specific figures, emphasizing that the decision would be made next month by Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the top commander in Iraq, and senior Pentagon officials. But other senior military officials said U.S. troop levels could drop to around 105,000 by early next year from 150,000 now.

The Pentagon had previously said that by the end of this month the number of U.S. forces in Iraq would decrease to about 138,000 troops, the level preceding the Iraqi elections on Jan. 30, and most likely remain at that level through the end of the year.

The remarks by Cody, who recently returned from a visit to Iraq, offer new insights into what Casey may recommend next month to top Pentagon officials and military officers.

Cody and other Defense Department officials said the precise size and composition of U.S. forces in Iraq by early next year hinged on several factors, including the security situation, the size and competence of newly trained Iraqi forces and the wishes of the new Iraqi government.

In the past, similar projections have been abandoned as the situation deteriorated unexpectedly. The Pentagon was planning to cut troop levels by the summer of 2004, but it ended up abruptly extending the tours of units that were on their way home, and the numbers have not declined since.

Cody said the force set to arrive by early next year to replace troops just now starting their one-year tours "will be smaller than the one that's in there now."

Asked to clarify whether fewer troops would be deployed in Iraq by early 2006, Cody answered carefully: "I would think so. I would think so, but your definition of smaller and my definition of smaller may be different."

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