Population, economic and job growth to come

A review of population projections for the state conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California shows wide variations. For 2025, the range is a low estimate of 41.5 million to a high of 52 million; for 2040, the range is 46.8 million to 63.4 million. All projections, however, agree on some basic issues:

Growth rates will be lower than in the past, but absolute levels of growth will remain high. Natural increase will have more effect than net migration on population growth. Domestic migration will be lower, while international migration will remain strong. California will still have higher growth rates than the rest of the country.

Economic and job growth should also be strong in the years ahead. The restructuring of the Californian economy has put the state in the lead position in leading industries of the future: high-tech, foreign trade, film and entertainment, travel and tourism, electronics and telecommunications, professional and business services, fashion and design.

According to the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy, in the next 10 years the state will add 3 million new jobs, 6 million new residents and 2 million new households.

California will continue as a mecca for growth because it has all the elements required: a diversified economic base of industries new and old, large and small; a critical mass of skilled workers; major hubs of transportation and distribution; numerous institutions of higher learning and research; an attractive quality of life.

According to the Milken Institute, California contains 8 of the 35 most economically dynamic metropolitan regions in the US: Ventura (#4), Oakland (#5), San Jose (#8), Orange County (#11), San Diego (#12), Santa Rosa (#14), San Francisco (#16) and Sacramento (#28). Milken also ranks US metro areas based on their overall contributions to the nation's high-tech output and the degree to which each region has embraced technology industries. In that regard, California boasts 6 of the top 50, most prominently Los Angeles (#3), which excels in software, telecommunications, aerospace and the high-tech aspects of entertainment.

According to the American Electronics Association, the high-tech industry is now the nation's third-largest employer, with California leading the way. In 1997, the state contained 784,000 high-tech employees, 16.3% of the national total of 4.8 million and over twice the numbers found in #2 Texas or #3 New York. No wonder California dwarfs all other states in venture capital investment (somewhere in the neighborhood of $ 10 billion last year, about half the national total).

These reports underscore the tendency of "new economy" businesses and industries to cluster. Those who thought technologies would render the future "placeless" did not realize requirements of speed, flexibility and responsiveness mean that place still matters most of all. And as places go, California is where the future continues to be invented, discovered and created.

Copyright FutureScan Jan 17, 2000
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