Air not on side of caution/ Skaters might have to attempt triple-

SALT LAKE CITY - World-class figure skating has become a numbers game.

"It's come down to counting the jumps," said 1968 Olympic champion Peggy Fleming.

And with tonight's Olympic short program at the Salt Lake Ice Center, women's skating, after more than a decade of technical stagnation, is about to take flight. Amongst all the sequins and glitter, hang time has become a must.

"If you don't have all six triple jumps and a triple-triple jump you shouldn't bother showing up at the Olympics," said Morry Stillwell, chairman of the International Skating Union's management commission and a longtime skating judge.

If the 1988 Olympics Katarina Witt-Debi Thomas showdown was the Battle of the Dueling Carmens then the Salt Lake City Games will likely be remembered as the Battle of the Triple-Triples. In a competition that features one of the deepest women's fields in history landing a triple-triple might be a prerequisite for a spot on the medal stand Thursday.

"This competition is like a lottery," said Russia's Maria Butyrskaya, the 1999 World champion.

And the best way to increase your odds at a medal is to attempt a triple-triple. All five top contenders, four-time World champion Michelle Kwan, Russia's Irina Slutskaya, a three-time World silver medalist, 17-year-old Sasha Cohen, Sarah Hughes, another American teen-ager and last year's World bronze medalist, and Butyrskaya have been working on jump combinations in which they take off, spin through the air for three rotations, land then take right off again for three more rotations. Slutskaya in recent weeks has even been working on a mind-boggling triple Salchow, triple loop, half loop, triple Salchow jump combination.

"I really want to try something interesting," she said. "Something that would make people go 'Whoaa!'"

The Whoaa factor is what has separated Slutskaya and Kwan this season. "Irina's very technically stronger than Michelle," said Olympic men's champion Alexei Yagudin. The Russian has won all three meetings with Kwan since September, largely because she has dramatically improved her artistry while the more artistic Kwan has done nothing to cut into Slutskaya's athletic superiority.

"Maybe the judges are telling me they want more from me," Kwan admitted.

But so far she has been reluctant to up the ante.

"Michelle needs a triple-triple," said Rosalynn Sumners, the 1983 World champion. "She didn't do it at nationals. She's talked about it but she hasn't done it. She doesn't have the content Slutskaya has. She has to do the triple-triple at the Olympics."

Kwan has struggled to land a triple toe-triple toe combination in her Salt Lake City practices and has seemed just as uncertain in trying to decide whether to triple-triple or not to triple-triple.

"There has been a lot of talk with the triple-triple combination," Kwan said. "For me as long as the percentage of doing the triple- triple is great and consistency is good then I feel like it's a must in my behalf. In the whole scheme of things it might not be a must, but you never know. The question is: Do you take that chance?"

For Cohen, like Slutskaya, there is no question. "Sasha," Olympic bronze medalist Timothy Goebel said, "really wants to push the edge of the envelope." Until two weeks ago, the daring and impatient Cohen's Olympic plans included an attempt at becoming the first woman to land a quadruple jump in competition. Cohen will settle for a triple lutz-triple toe combination.

"It's something I feel can help me here in Salt Lake," Cohen said.

It could in fact put her in the hunt for the gold. An unknown at the international level, Cohen is the wild card here. Twice in the past three years she has nearly upset Kwan at the U.S. championships.

Her inexperience will not earn her any favors from Olympic judges who traditionally have been reluctant to reward unproven skaters. But in terms of grace, flexibility and artistry she is superior to perhaps even Kwan.

"There's magic there," Sumners said. "She has a unique look, a very engaging, eloquent, unique style that none of the other girls have. She has an attitude and quality that Sarah Hughes doesn't have, even Michelle doesn't have. She's the future of skating."

If she lands a clean triple-triple the future could be now for Cohen.

- Scott Reid may be reached at Sreid@ocregister.com

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