AOE servers and hosts - Unix-based file servers

Unix-based AGE server suppliers exploited their opportunity to prove the strength of Unix-based applications and database servers, positioning their overall stability and scalability - as well as their rich development and management environments - against NetWare and NT servers. However, that message is weakening vs. NT, though NetWare is still really only strong in file- and print-sharing functions.

With the momentum of "turnkey" Unix/RISC or Unix/Intel server offerings and the growing momentum of NT Server, we believe 1995 will be the defining year for the newer shrink-wrapped Intel Unixes. SCO's position in small-business host systems and its growing strength in branch automation appear assured. But without major efforts in demand generation, channel development, expanded device support, and partnerships with major intel hardware suppliers, the future of UnixWare or Solaris/Intel is uncertain.

The packaging and API emphasis launched in 1994 will expand in 1995 and beyond. Specifically, opportunities exist for Unix or NetWare resellers to create BackOffice-like packages for small to medium-sized workgroups. Companies that collect client/server foundation technologies (advanced OS, database, management and directory services, development environment, messaging) into easy-to-purchase-and-use packages or modules will be the best positioned.

Worldwide Shipments of Selected AOE Server/Host Systems, 1993 and
1994

* NetWare 4.1 is due to ship. We are expecting the new, more flexible licensing policies to increase its acceptance at smaller companies and sites. NetWare's early-phase multiprocessing support was partially dependent on the largely deemphasized Processor-Independent NetWare and may be delayed to the second half. SuperNOS is a concept, not a product, until late 1996 at the earliest.

* UnixWare 2.0 is late but should be announced in 1Q95. It will feature support for threads and SMP and include improved NetWare integration features.

* HP-UX 10.0 continued to slip through 1994, and we now expect its arrival in January along with a major HP hardware release. Expected features include the synchronization of workstation and server lines, a journaling file system from Veritas, and enhanced SMP support.

* SCO may release its next major product, code-named Everest, in mid- to late 1995. It will probably take its usual pragmatic approach and release enhanced remote and centralized management features before that time.

* IBM is targeting 1Q95 for the client edition of OS/2 Warp with the necessary networking protocol support as a bonus pack.

1995 Shipment Expectations

NT server sales, especially in conjunction with SQL Server and BackOffice, should more than double in 1995. Client draga-long, development seats, and moderate traditional "workstation" application penetration should produce 80-85% growth for NT Workstation shipments.

NetWare 3.x continues its strong growth, but in relatively low-function environments. We expect the slow ramp of 4.x to continue, though 4.1 and Novell's growing experience will pick up the pace.

Overall, NetWare should grow in the 18-20% range.

Warp is a shot in the arm for OS/2, but not in the real AOE competitive environment. OS/2's impact is still largely confined to the mainstream desktop market, where comparisons to Windows '95 and MacOS are more valid, and more damning. IBM needs to identify and productize some niches it can really play a role in (e.g., advanced client/server applications, customer support, development seats, insurance and finance markets) and spread its volumes and APIs there. OS/2 should see only 5-10% server shipment growth, but solid desktop growth, in the 50-55% range.

True Unix midrange systems did better than we expected last year, and shrinkwrapped Unix multiuser systems did worse. We believe many conservative customers are still unwilling to deploy large numbers of systems exploiting this instance of IT industry "disintegration." Thus, we foresee continued strength for the "turnkey" approaches of the big four players.

We expect nonshrinkwrapped Unix server shipments to moderate somewhat from their 40% pace in 1994 to 30-35% in 1996. Shrinkwrapped Unix multiuser systems should increase somewhat, to 20-25% growth. On the single-user side, we expect workstation growth in the 17-18% range, and Unix PCs to slightly outpace that at 20-22%.

COPYRIGHT 1995 International Data Corporation
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