Educating British Columbians for the Future

Just as it did last year, this year's BC Check-Up identifies the need to educate our young people for the jobs of the future as one of British Columbia's most imminent challenges. Consider the following statistic: Although EC's level of educational attainment increased slightly (0.4%) in 2004 to 59.3% (for 25 to 54 year-olds), we continue to trail the Canadian average of 61.6%.

In our budget submissions to the Select Standing Committee on Finance and Government Services over the past two years, we've recommended that the government focus on ensuring an adequate population of trained employees through a focus on developing post-secondary graduates.

This request was reflected in the government's 2004/05 budget, which promised an additional 25,000 new postsecondary seats by 2010-the largest postsecondary expansion in 40 years. After applauding this initiative, the ICABC went further, suggesting that surplus money be spent to accelerate increases in the number of post-secondary seats in BC.

Current supply vs. future needs

In 2004, 23.0% of the population aged 25-54 had a university degree, 36.0% had non-university certification, and 41.0% had post-secondary certification.1 Comparing these numbers with the projected labour market requirements for BC between 2003-201 5, there is clearly a need to increase the number of people with postsecondary certificates/diplomas and university degrees, and decrease the number of British Columbians with no post-secondary certification (see graph, page 15).

Determining which skills will be in the highest demand requires an examination of occupations that are likely to grow and of the education they require. The increasing use of technology in all sectors means workers in every occupation will need higher skill levels.

By combining the projections from the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) and the labour demand projections recently completed for the 2010 Olympic Committee, it's estimated that BC will see the highest level of job growth in the occupational areas listed in the table below (specific occupations that will be in high demand are highlighted within the occupational group).

Interestingly, many of these occupations will require post-secondary training but not university degrees; in fact, the greatest majority of openings (44%) will be for people with post-secondary certificates or diplomas. Unfortunately, many of these occupations suffer from perception problems or a lack of awareness from BC's students and parentsboth groups share a bias toward university education. In particular, 69% of parents want their children to attend university, despite the fact that only 35% of BC students currently do, and only 29% of the jobs require university credentials.2

In order to combat this problem, a number of initiatives to raise the profile of these career options are underway, including the BC Business Council's "Third Option" initiative, which is creating awareness of 47 careers in 10 industries, and the Industry Training Authority's Accelerated Credit Enrolment in Industry Training (ACE-IT), which enables high-school students to receive college-level credit towards an apprenticeships or industry training programs.

The message seems to be getting throughthe Industry Training Authority registered a 37% increase in industry trainees in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2005.'

Overall shortage of workers

With the anticipated job growth over the next decade, BC faces not only the problem of educating workers for these new jobs, but of finding workers in the first place. Based on the impending retirement of the "Baby Boom" generation, BC is facing a shortage of workers.

In fact, it's projected that by 2010, for the first time ever, more people will be leaving the workforce than entering it4-this despite the potential removal of the mandatory retirement age and the number of people working later in life. Between 2003 and 2015, it's projected that BC will require 913,000 workers to fill jobs created through retirement and job growth; over 60.0% (558,000) of these openings will be created as a result of retirements.' With a current workforce of 2,060,000, these retirements represent the loss of more than a quarter of EC's current workers. In addition, it's estimated that 130,000 jobs will be created by the 2010 Olympics and related projects.6 When these jobs are added in the total projected openings for 2003-2015, BC will have to fill 1,043,000 new jobs.

The number of BC students (K-12) numbers only 680,000. Even if all of these students are properly trained and enter the workforce, BC will still be 363,000 workers short of projected demands.7 It's likely, therefore, that BC will have to increase its number of workers through in-migration from other parts of Canada and other countries. Considering that 81% of CAs who responded to the CA Business Outlook survey (2002) already believe that attracting and retaining high-calibre employees is a significant hurdle for BC businesses, our province is clearly facing a huge challenge to ensure that it has the workers it needs to continue moving forward.

Endnotes

1 Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey.

2 Roslyn Kunin & Associates, 2010 Winter Games Labour Demand Analysis.

3 Industry Training Authority press release: April 14, 2005.

4 Canadian Occupational Projection System.

5 Ibid.

6 Roslyn Kunin & Associates, 2010 Winter Games Labour Demand Analysis.

7 Ibid.

By Michelle McCormick, Manager of Public Affairs

Copyright Institute of Chartered Accountants of British Columbia Oct 2005
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