Defying the odds: jumping from dismal to decent sounds simple, but history has proven that few clubs make the leap from lousy to legit in a single season - basketball playoffs

FANS TIRED OF SEEING the same teams make the playoffs every season may finally get some variety this spring. However, while some lottery regulars look drastically improved this season, history reveals that they face a difficult task.

After dismal 2000-01 seasons, the Atlanta Hawks (25-57), Washington Wizards (19-63), and Los Angeles Clippers (31-51) all have hopes of reaching the post-season.

The Hawks struggled through a campaign filled with injuries, personnel turnover, and lots of losing. But something good happened on the way to their early spring vacation. "One advantage of not winning a lot of games, is that several young players got to play a lot of minutes," coach Lon Kruger says.

What happened off the court was at least as important as what transpired on it. Hawks GM Pete Babcock engineered a series of deals that completed an amazingly quick facelift.

The offseason deal for Shareef Abdur-Rahim gave the Hawks an inside offensive force to complement the sweet perimeter shooting of Jason Terry. That draft-day deal and last season's Dikembe Mutombo trade have rebuilt the Hawks' front wall. Abdur-Rahim, Theo Ratliff, Toni Kukoc, and Nazr Mohammed give Kruger versatility, size, and talent.

The Hawks' last trip to the playoffs actually came just three seasons ago, going 31-19 in the lockout-shortened 1999 campaign. After advancing to the conference semifinals, they got blitzed in four games by the New York Knicks.

"We feel we're dramatically better than we were last season," Babcock says. "We stayed within our plan. We stayed young, and we improved our athletic ability and our offense."

Another longtime doormat hopes to crash the postseason party. The Wizards represent this season's ultimate long shot. Though it's hard to think that way about any team with No. 23, Michael Jordan's supporting cast hardly resembles Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant, and company.

"Everyone speculates, but no one knows--and that's a part of the challenge," Jordan explains. "This young team, although they've never won anything and have never really been put in a situation to win, may be a story in the making."

Only 11 clubs have managed to jump from fewer than 25 wins one season to the playoffs the next. And the Wizards stand to achieve something extraordinarily rare: Only two teams have shot from less than 20 wins one season into the playoffs the next.

The Wizards and Hawks would really defy the odds if they both reach the postseason. Two teams have never gone from 25 or fewer wins to the playoffs in the same season.

The San Antonio Spurs have made the playoff-jump list twice. Not coincidentally, those seasons marked the rookie years of David Robinson and Tim Duncan. They also represent the two greatest single-season turnarounds in NBA history (36 and 35 games).

The 1968-69 San Diego Rockets and 1969-70 Phoenix Suns rose from the depths of just 15 and 16 wins respectively. To add to their achievements, they made the playoffs in just their second year of existence.

Both teams had the help of superstars. Elvin Hayes, one of the NBA's 50 Greatest Players, paced the Rockets. Suns forward Connie Hawkins, who may have made the all-time team had he not been banned from the NBA for several years, had a fabulous season as a 27-year-old rookie.

The Clippers have a shorter jump to the playoffs than the teams in the chart. They went 31-51 last year after an awful 15-67 finish in 1999-2000: History shows that going from 31 wins to the playoffs is far easier than 25 or less.

Nonetheless, the Clips face the additional challenge of playing in the West. The Timberwolves filled the conference's eighth playoff spot last season with a 47-35 record.

The Clippers' last postseason trip came in 1996-97. However, their last playoff win came four years before that. To find their last playoff series victory you have to go all the way back to ... wait, the Clippers have never won a postseason series. The last playoff series win by the franchise sends you across country to Buffalo, when in 1975-76 the Braves downed the Philadelphia 76ers two games to one in the opening round.

Like the Hawks, L.A. possesses an abundance of young talent Lamar Odom (22), Darius Miles (20), Corey Maggette (22), and Quentin Richardson (21) are still college-aged.

Despite all their promise in 2000-01, the Clippers lacked a true go-to guy. It's been some time since a big-time scorer wore a Clippers' uniform--in fact, they haven't had a player average 20 ppg since 1993-94.

Enter Elton Brand. In his first two NBA seasons he produced two 20-point, 10-rebound campaigns. Landing a 20-10 man is no easy task: Brand, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Webber, and Duncan are the only other players to reach these levels in each of the past two seasons. Brand (22) even fits into the team's youth movement.

The Clippers, Hawks, and Wizards all added a star player to their roster this season. That follows the same pattern as several clubs in the chart. Nearly every team that jumped into the playoffs had someone of this stature. While the addition of dominant centers fueled the greatest turnarounds, only a few clubs managed to add star big men. Since Duncans and Robinsons don't come along that often, most teams need to locate stars at other positions.

The Wizards were fortunate to have one in their front office. The Clippers and Hawks had to engineer trades, but all three filled a void.

Though they didn't make the chart, another Suns team completed a tremendous turnaround. After struggling to a 28-54 record in 1987-88, Phoenix improved by an amazing 27 games the next year as they soared to 55-27.

The 1988-89 Suns managed to nearly double their win total without adding a dominant big man. How did they do it? Former Coach Cotton Fitzsimmons says that in addition to talent "we needed a little luck to go along with it."

In the middle of the previous season, the Suns dealt All-Star forward Larry Nance (along with forward Mike Sanders and a draft pick) to the Cleveland Cavaliers for a rookie point guard named Kevin Johnson, Mark West, Tyrone Corbin, and three draft picks. One of those picks became Dan Majerle.

Fitzsimmons' son Gary, a member of the Cavaliers' front office, had selected Johnson. "I knew he wouldn't draft someone No. 7 if he couldn't play. That trade was the foundation for our team," says Fitzsimmons, explaining his first fortunate break. The Suns also capitalized on the Cavs' zeal to add Nance for their run at a championship.

Phoenix then inked free agent Tom Chambers before the season. Since that was the first offseason with unrestricted free agency, the Suns caught another lucky break. According to Fitzsimmons, without restricted free agency they couldn't have landed the high-scoring forward.

Chambers, KJ, and Eddie Johnson all averaged over 20 ppg in 1988-89. Phoenix captured their first two playoff series before bowing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

That marked an impressive postseason showing for a turnaround club. Of the 11 teams in the chart, only three survived the opening round. Each of those three exited in the very next round. So even if this year's playoff hopefuls break through, they should brace themselves for disappointment. All three clubs are young, though, so just reaching the playoffs makes a good next step. Looking well down the road, they each have their eye on the same eventual prize.

"The ultimate goal of every organization is to win championships," Kruger says.

Among the teams in the chart, only one captured a championship with the same basic core of players. The Spurs downed the New York Knicks in the 1999 Finals the season after jumping from 20 to 56 wins.

This year's teams need to think playoffs first; that's a difficult enough goal. Although with three such clubs poised for a jump, there's a good chance one might qualify for postseason play.

In the lockout-shortened 1999 season, two surprise teams made the playoffs. The 76ers (31-51) and Sacramento Kings (27-55) had each suffered through tough previous seasons, though not as bad as the Hawks or Wizards of last year.

The Kings lost in the first round, but the Sixers advanced to the conference semifinals, where they lost to the Indiana Pacers. The Kings and 76ers made repeat trips in the following two seasons, with Philly reaching the 2001 NBA Finals.

Once teams reach the playoffs, they often return for at least a couple more years. Breaking through that first time is the tricky part.

How hard is it to bust out of the lottery and reach the playoffs? Last post-season included just two new playoff qualifiers--the Dallas Mavericks and Orlando Magic. Neither had to make nearly as big a leap as the Hawks, Wizards, and even Clippers require, and both had narrowly missed the playoffs year before.

The ghosts of the past are among the many obstacles this season's teams must overcome.

"You have to build confidence," Fitzsimmons says. "It's very important that you win games early in the season, or at least be making progress."

The Wizards and Clippers, especially, are battling lengthy losing traditions. The Hawks have been down for a much shorter time, but most of those players weren't around for the winning seasons. At least Washington players can turn to a mentor with six championship rings.

"These are young kids that have never really experienced winning," Jordan says of his teammates. "But we've got something working right now, and it's going to continue to move in the right direction."

Whether that direction takes them into the playoffs remains to be seen. Even if the Wizards don't make history, the playoffs may have at least one surprising new member next spring.

Outhouse to Penthouse

HOW COMMON IS IT for teams to reach the playoffs after seasons of 25 wins or less? Has any team I ever made it coming off a dreadful 19-win season like the Washington Wizards?

Only 11 NBA teams have reached the postseason after seasons of 25 or fewer wins since the league went to an 82-game schedule in 1967-68 (Note: Win totals for the lockout-shortened 1999 season are projected over 82 games).

PLAYOFF                         PREVIOUS   PLAYOFF    GAMES
SEASON                          SEASON     SEASON     IMPROVED

                                W     L    W     L
1968-69 San Diego Rockets       15   67    37   45    + 22
1969-70 Phoenix Suns            16   66    39   43    + 23
1988-89 Golden State Warriors   20   62    43   39    + 23
1997-98 San Antonio Spurs       20   62    56   26    + 36
1973-74 Buffalo Braves          21   61    42   40    + 21
1989-90 San Antonio Spurs       21   61    56   26    + 35
1976-77 Chicago Bulls           24   58    44   38    + 20
1991-92 Miami Heat              24   58    38   44    + 14
1978-79 New Jersey Nets         24   58    37   45    + 13
1981-82 New Jersey Nets         24   58    44   38    + 20
1987-88 New York Knicks         24   58    38   44    + 14

PLAYOFF                                     PLAYOFF
SEASON                                      RESULT

1968-69 San Diego Rockets                         Lost first round
1969-70 Phoenix Suns                              Lost first round
1988-89 Golden State Warriors    Won first round, lost conf. semis
1997-98 San Antonio Spurs        Won first round, lost conf. semis
1973-74 Buffalo Braves                            Lost first round
1989-90 San Antonio Spurs        Won first round, lost conf. semis
1976-77 Chicago Bulls                             Lost first round
1991-92 Miami Heat                                Lost first round
1978-79 New Jersey Nets                           Lost first round
1981-82 New Jersey Nets                           Lost first round
1987-88 New York Knicks                           Lost first round

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