Searching for the next Ben Wallace: looking for clues about this season's breakout stars? A study of per 48 minutes stats provides the best crib notes

NOT LONG AGO, HE SPENT extensive time occupying bench space. Last season, Ben Wallace led the NBA in rebounding and blocks, and captured the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year Award. Every year players like him emerge. So who'll be this season's Wallace?

With Wallace, it was all about opportunity. His numbers always looked good when expanded over 48 minutes; the problem was getting the minutes. That all changed when the Grant Hill sign-and-trade deal brought him to the Detroit Pistons.

During the 1999-2000 season with the Orlando Magic, the 6'9", 240-pound Wallace scored 4.8 ppg and grabbed 8.2 rpg, playing in just 24 mpg. Even then, his 16.3 rebounds per 48 minutes ranked ahead of most elite big men; only five NBA players topped him that stat

When Wallace joined the Pistons in 2000-01, a huge door swung open, and Wallace continued his strong play over extended minutes. His 13.2 rpg trailed only Dikembe Mutombo, and he ranked 10th in blocks per contest (2.33).

But last year, Big Ben kicked it up another notch. He became the fourth player to pace the league in both rebounding and blocks. Only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Walton, and Hakeem Olajuwon have pulled off that rare feat.

An examination of per 48 numbers often will uncover the next impact players. It could have identified Wallace while he sat on the Orlando bench, though it's rarely that easy:. Sometimes players put up nice stats in limited duty, or maybe they dominate opposing backups, or disappear when sharing the court with regulars. Breakout players need to find the fight situation, or have it find them. They also must perform when opportnnity finally knocks.

Looking to 2002-03, we'll avoid the incoming rookie class in our search for the next Wallace. Sure, first-year stars burst on the scene nearly every season, like Pau Gasol did last year. But we want to uncover players already in the league who have seen limited action.

"It's always hard to tell who, but there will be someone," Milwaukee Bucks GM Ernie Grunfeld says when asked which players could surprise in 2002-03. "I hope it's someone on my team."

The New Orleans Hornets' Jamaal Magloire shined in several per 48 categories last season. He scored 21.7 points per 48 minutes, and his total rebounds (14.3), offensive rebounds (4.74), and blocks (2.66) figures all looked great per 48 minutes. Among players with at least 400 field goal attempts, only Shaquille O'Neal (.579) shot a higher percentage than Magloire (.551).

The 6'10" center/power forward only played 18.9 mpg, so he may have some problems sustaining that production over major minutes. Based on last season's performance alone, he should get considerably more playing time in 2002-03. In addition, both Elden Campbell (34 years old) and PJ. Brown (33) enter this season on the wrong side of 30.

Playing for a lousy team can push a player into breakout status. Chicago Bulls rookie Eddy Curry, just one year removed from high school, played 16.0 mpg in 2001-02. The 6'11" center had nice averages per 48 minutes in points (20.2), rebounds (11.4), and blocks (2.2). He also impressed late in the season when his playing time increased.

Michael Redd scored 26 points per 48 minutes for George Karl's Milwaukee Bucks. Energetic Bobby Jackson (24.6), Troy Hudson (24.6), Quentin Richardson (24.0), and Ricky Davis (23.6) 'also had scored impressive points per 48 minutes. But only Richardson played in more than 25 minutes per game.

You could argue that Richardson has already arrived. The 6'6" swingman scored 13.3 ppg last season, a serious jump from his 8.1 ppg rookie scoring. Playing 26.6 mpg, "Q" also grabbed 4.1 rpg. While the favorite to start at 2-guard, he may not see a dramatic playing time increase on a deep Los Angeles Clippers squad. If he does, with Andre Miller dishing, the ex-DePaul star could throw in 20 ppg.

Breakout players often step up late in the previous campaign. An interesting fact about Wallace is that he shined late in the 1999-2000 season. In both March and April of 2000, he averaged 10.0 rpg as his minutes climbed.

That bodes well for Davis, who re-upped with the Cleveland Cavaliers to form a talented and athletic young trio with Darius Miles and Dajuan Wagner. Beginning last December, Davis' monthly scoring averages soared (6.8 ppg in December, to 8.1, 14.2, 13.9, and 19.8 in successive months). He nearly reached 20 ppg in April, the only month when he averaged 30 minute.

"He really came on at the end of the year," Minnesota Timberwolves coach Flip Saunders says of Davis. (Saunders and Minnesota were so enamored of Davis that they signed him to a fat offer sheet in August, which Cleveland immediately matched.) "A lot is going to depend on what situation he's in, but he's got great upside. He can make a lot of things happen."

"Physically, he's very gifted," Grunfeld adds. "He ended the season on a very high note. If he continues that kind of progress, he could have a very good year."

After getting limited playing time through his first three seasons, the electrifying Davis showed some flashes. But can he sustain that performance as a starter for an entire season?

Another potential breakout guy has a starting spot almost assured. "Richard Jefferson could be a guy that takes the next step," Saunders predicts. Jefferson comes off a fine rookie season in which he made the NBA's All-Rookie Second Team. He averaged 9.4 points in 24.3 mpg. The athletic 6'7" forward now has a tremendous opportunity--with Keith Van Horn traded to the Philadelphia 76ers in the Dikembe Mutombo deal, Jefferson figures to fill the New Jersey Nets' 3-spot.

From a numbers standpoint, however, Jefferson's breakout chances appear unlikely. He averaged an unspectacular 18.6 points per 48 minutes. None of his other stats jump out, and his numbers fell during the postseason. He also tailed off late in the regular season after a strong January-February push.

Still, expect him to take a huge step forward as a starter. "Richard is going to be a superstar in tiffs league because of his work ethic and athleticism," Nets coach Byron Scott says. "We expect big things from him this season."

The former Arizona star looked like a man among boys during the Shaw's Summer League in Boston. He led the Shaw's in both scoring (22.0) and assists (6.5).

"He's a well-rounded player," Grunfeld says. "He can play two positions, he handles the ball well, and he's very competitive. He improved his outside shot. He's a great athlete."

There's another consideration with Jefferson. With Van Horn launching jumpers in Philly this year, someone needs to pick up the scoring slack for Scott's club. In nine starts last season, Jefferson scored 15.2 points and had 5.6 rebounds.

Wallace's own teammate may follow a similar breakout path. Zeljko Rebraca excelled late last season, after he got acclimated to the NBA game. The seven-foot Yugoslavian hit the court for just 15.9 mpg. In that limited action he averaged 20.9 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per 48 minutes. He tossed in nearly 17 ppg in his only four starts. And at age 30, he's considerably more experienced than the talented rising stars mentioned earlier.

While many great candidates abound, we don't know who--if anyone--will duplicate last year's extraordinary leap by Ben Wallace. But heading into the season, there is no shortage of prime candidates.

Who's Next to Break Out?

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CANDIDATES FOR BREAKOUT SEASONS. IN FACT, TWO OF
THE players below (Michael Redd and Jamal Magloire) were on our Most
Improved Team last season and could make an even bigger impact in
2002-03. Here's a look at those players poised to make a splash:

THE CANDIDATES       THE NUMBERS         THE SKINNY

Jamaal Magloire      21.7 points and     Can he sustain performance
                     14.3 boards per     over increased minutes?
                     48 minutes

Eddy Curry           A double-double     Will "Baby Shaq" grow up
                     per 48              quickly?

Michael Redd         26 points per 48    Stuck behind Ray Allen, but
                     minutes             could get some time at the 3
                                         with the Big Dog gone.

Ricky Davis          19.8 ppg in April   Now needs to show a starter's
                                         stamina.

Quentin Richardson   13.3 ppg as a       Just needs more time, but he's
                     skilled sixth man   already there ability-wise.

Zeljko Rebraca       20.9 points, 11.8   Is there room in Detroit for
                     rebounds, and 3.0   another Ben Wallace?
                     blocks per 48

Bobby Jackson        11.1 ppg in just    Can he find enough playing
                     22 mpg              time?

Troy Hudson          17.2 ppg in April   Explosive scorer takes his
                                         backup game West to at least
                                         spot-start for Terrell
                                         Brandon.

Richard Jefferson    15.2 points per     His superb talent intersects
                     48 minutes          with an ideal setting.

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