Fast and steady wins this race - NASCAR

Don't engrave the 2003 Winston Cup trophy just yet.

Sure, Matt Kenseth has a sizable lead going into this weekend's race at Dover, where he finished seventh in June. With a 404-point advantage, Kenseth actually could take the weekend off, knowing he'd still have a lead of more than 200 points over the top also-rans.

Since the current points system was established in 1975, the driver leading midway through the season has won the title 18 times, including 10 of the last 12 championships.

Last year's victor, Tony Stewart, was one of file exceptions. After the race at Chicagoland, which ended the first half, Stewart was fifth in the Winston Cup standings, 157 points behind Sterling Marlin. Eleven weeks later, a crash and neck injury at Kansas ended Marlin's season, and Stewart capitalized.

But 157 points hardly compare with Kenseth's colossal margin. With nine races remaining and a possible 1,665 points at stake, the championship isn't over, at least from a mathematical standpoint. Wresting the lead from Kenseth is not impossible, but it certainly is improbable.

Accidents do happen. Marlin held the points lead for 24 races last year before going to Richmond in September with a 91-point lead over Jeff Gordon. Early in that race, he collided with Jimmy Spencer. Marlin topped the standings just one more week before Mark Martin took over at New Hampshire. Two weeks later, Marlin suffered his season-ending injury. He eventually finished 18th.

Accidents do happen, Part 2. Talladega looms, a week after Dover. Enough said. But Kenseth finished ninth at Talladega in April. His average finish on restrictor-plate tracks in 2003 is 12th.

Give Kenseth the I'd Rather Be Lucky Than Good Award. What is this guy's secret? Four-leaf clovers? Lucky dice dangling from the rearview mirror? Voodoo dolls of Kevin Harvick, Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr.?

Just when you think the No. 17 Ford is about to stumble, Kenseth rolls on.

Remember the flat tire at Sonoma? Two miles of wicked, winding road course, which never has been Kenseth's forte, and his tire blows.

Where?

He was just a few feet from the entrance of pit road and ended up 14th.

At Watkins Glen, one of Kenseth's tires was rubbing, and he was forced to pit. As if on cue, the caution flag flew, and Kenseth worked his way back to the front. He finished eighth.

Then there was the second race at Richmond. After narrowly missing a multicar accident, Kenseth bumped the wall later, checked up, was hit from behind, spun out--and still salvaged a seventh-place finish.

Kenseth admits he has been lucky, but he adds that the cars are "well-prepared" by the team and that there haven't been any parts failures. Yes, this team is good, too. Consistency wins championships, and Kenseth embodies consistency. He has finished worse than 14th just twice--20th in the Daytona 500 and 22nd at Martinsvilie, where the team will test later this month to prepare for a return on October 20.

As Kenseth established himself as a solid contender early in the season, I wanted to know what made this team so strong. A crew member of a Busch Series team, who says Kenseth is "a genius" suggested I listen to the No. 17 team's race chatter. Kenseth and crew chief Robbie Reiser, who began working together in 1997, sound like a long-married couple. They anticipate situations on the track well before something happens. Listening to this crew on race day is like a lesson in Motorsports 101.

Can anyone catch the No. 17? "Hell no," says Michael Waltrip's crew chief, "Slugger" Labbe, who witnessed a similar chain of events when he worked on Terry Labonte's championship team in 1996. "The race now is for second through 12th."

OK, I concede. Call the engravers and book Metallica, a Kenseth favorite, for his championship party.

Down the road

MBNA America 400 Dover International Speedway When: 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday TV: NBC Length: 400 laps, 400 miles

Run with this

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M@IL BONDING

With NASCAR wanting a level field with common templates, isn't it somewhat responsible for the late race bumping and banging? I am getting tired of the pushing and shaving that goes on after a race. Can anything be done w curtail this? Suspending drivers from a race or two comes to mind

Ronald Poupard, Port Clinton, Ohio

Ronald: NASCAR tried to re-create an IROC-type series in which cars were aerodynamically equal and failed miserably. The drivers can't pass, so they lose patience and punt the car in front out of the way. Richard Childress pointed out that drivers, unlike most athletes, race with a sustained intensity throughout a three-plus-hour event, and the cockpit becomes a pressure cooker. Put that scenario on a short track, where there are no straightaways on which drivers can catch their breaths, and tempers will flare.

NASCAR's penal system is not consistent or stringent enough. It was easy to make an example out of Jimmy Spencer because Sirius is not returning as a primary sponsor, and the team isn't high in points. Six-figure fines, deducting drivers and owners points and parking teams more often would drive home the point.

SPEED READS

* Jamie McMurray will have an advantage in the battle for rookie of the year going into the final nine races of the season, and not just because he and crew chief Donnie Wingo have had the last eight months to get acquainted. As a substitute for the injured Sterling Marlin, McMurray raced at six of the tracks in 2002, including Lowe's Motor Speedway, where he set a modern-day record by winning in his second start.

* Give Jerry Nadeau credit for realizing that his "brain needs time to heal" before he jumps back into a racecar. After recovering from a savage crash in May at Richmond, Nadeau has been in an extensive rehab program. He knows coming back prematurely could do irreversible damage to his career.

* Despite trouble at New Hampshire, Jeff Burton's No. 99 Roush Racing Ford appears to be back on track. Crew chief Paul Andrews has had a year to get used to the organization. Plus, the communication between him and Burton seems to be improving.

INSIDE DISH

By LEE SPENCER

Dale Earnhardt Jr. says he expects to meet with Teresa Earnhardt, his stepmother and the president of Dale Earnhardt Inc., this week to complete his contract. Junior, second in points to Matt Kenseth, says he never expected the negotiations to cause such a stir. "I want to get this out of the way because I feel responsible for the distraction;' Junior says. "This should restore confidence to the team." Earnhardt says he is disappointed that people would question his commitment to the company his late father founded and says Teresa is "a classic businesswoman" Junior says completing the contract is simply a matter of the two finding four hours together to iron out the details.... Ricky Rudd's consecutive top five finishes--second at New Hampshire and third at Richmond--are proof of Wood Brothers Racing's strength on short tracks, where Rudd has three of his four top fives this season. Now the team must improve on the intermediate tracks. "Aerodynamics is not our strong suit," Rudd says. "We need some serious help in a hurry." The team will test later this month at Kansas with a new intermediate car and expects to see improvement.... Brian France, who has taken over for his father, Bill France Jr., as NASCAR chairman, has overseen NASCAR's marketing responsibilities since 1994. France, 41, gained experience by working as a track manager and by building the NASCAR Weekly and Touring Divisions and the Craftsman Truck Series. "I would hope he will do things with authority and reason;" says Jack Roush, president of Roush Racing.... NASCAR is working with Goodyear to develop softer tires that will force teams to pit more often and break up long race runs. Daytona 500 winner Michael Waltrip and runner-up Kurt Busch, along with DEI test driver Tim Fedewa, put a lot of laps on the tires last week at Daytona. "Slugger" Labbe, Waltrip's crew chief, was pleased with the results and says the drivers who do the best job of conserving tires should benefit.... NASCAR's roof hatch also was tested in Waltrip's No. 15, and Labbe applauded the progress, noting that a driver of Waltrip's size--at 6-5, 220, he has the biggest frame of anyone on the circuit--can escape within about 10 seconds. NASCAR may give teams the option of installing roof hatches as early as September 28 at Talladega.... Jimmie Johnson didn't have the fastest car, but he became the first driver to pull off a season sweep at New Hampshire. Crew chief Chad Knaus did not short-pit to win the race, as he did in July. Instead, the team benefited from Waltrip's misfortune on pit road and Rudd's need to refuel. Expect Johnson to be strong this weekend at Dover, where he tested earlier this month. Knaus says the team has its best setup for the track, where Johnson won both races in 2002.

TSN's POWER POLL

Rank   Driver               TSN pls.   Winston Cup pts.

 1.    Matt Kenseth            2,692      4,015 (l)
 2.    Ryan Newman             2,504      3,398 (5)
 3.    Dale Earnhardt Jr.      2,281      3,611 (2)
 4.    Jimmie Johnson          2,186      3,543 (4)
 5.    Kevin Harvick           2,119      3,552 (3)
 6.    Kurt Busch              2,020      3,323 (T7)
 7.    Bobby Labonte           2,006      3,323 (T7)
 8.    Jeff Gordon             1,993      3,382 (6)
 9.    Tony Stewart            1,704      3,121 (11)
10.    Terry Labonte           1,626      3,191 (9)

Through race No. 27, at Loudon, N.H.

(S) For the latest news from the Winston Cup circuit and for analysis from FOX commentators Darrell Waltrip, Jeff Hammond, Larry Mc

Reynolds and more, go to www.foxsports.com, keyword: NASCAR.

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