What makes a Super Bowl winner? - Dan Pompei's picks

The cliche answer is great defenses, and the last three Super Bowl winners--Tampa, New England and Baltimore--support that logic. But before the 2000 season, the argument can be made that 12 of the previous 13 Super Bowl winners (the lone exception being the 1990 Giants) were offense-dominated teams.

So great offenses also can win. In fact, it says here great offenses will win this season when the Rams beat the Raiders in the Arena, er, Super Bowl.

What wins Super Bowls are transcendent players who redefine their careers at the ultimate moments. Think John Elway helicoptering to a first down in 1998. Think Joe Montana dissecting the Bengals on the game-winning drive in 1989.

What wins Super Bowls are coaches who give transcendent players advantages by putting them in positions to succeed. Think Ion Gruden and Bill Belichick the last two seasons or, if you prefer, Joe Gibbs in 1988.

Assuming Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk are healthy and can play as they did two seasons ago, no team has more game changers than the Rams. Some would say it is a big assumption that they will be healthy, but it may be a bigger assumption that two of the most gifted players in the game can lose their gifts so quickly.

This team also has the premier offensive mind in the game. Mike Martz is the coach whom offensive coaches at every level of football study in order to better prepare their teams.

Think Warner throwing beautiful spiral after beautiful spiral on February 1 in Houston, just as he did when he was the NFL's Most Valuable Player in 1999 and 2001. Think Faulk dancing through gaps, around linebackers and by defensive backs. Think Isaac Bruce and "lorry Holt bursting out of their breaks, making effortless catches and then running away from everyone.

Think Martz making 11 offensive players look like 18, temporarily paralyzing a defense that can't possibly keep up with so many shifts, motions and personnel changes.

Think Rich Gannon throwing short, precise strikes, each one a dagger, to Jerry Rice, Jerry Porter, Tim Brown, Charlie Garner, Doug Jolley, Teyo Johnson and Tyrone Wheatley. But those short strikes don't hurt as much as Warner's long ones.

Think Rams 34, Raiders 28.

AFC division winners Dolphins, Steelers, Titans and Raiders

Wild-card teams Colts and Bills

AFC championship Raiders over Dolphins

NFC division winners Eagles, Packers, Bucs, Rams

Wild-card teams 49ers and Giants

NFC championship Rams over Packers

Super Bowl winner Rams

Defensive player of the year DE Jason Taylor, Dolphins

Offensive rookie of the year TE Dallas Clark, Colts

Defensive rookie of the year CB Terence Newman, Cowboys

Comeback player of the year QB Kurt Warner, Rams

Coach of the year Gregg Williams, Bills

E-mail senior writer Dan Pompei at dpompei@sportingnews.com.

INSIDE DISH

By Dan Pompei

There has been a lot of tip-toeing around with Cowboys G Larry Allen this summer, but the bottom line is this: The probable future Hall of Famer is not in football shape, and it shows. Allen, 31, still is able to dominate in spurts, but he hasn't been able to sustain his effort. After missing 11 games last year with a high ankle sprain, Allen let himself go physically, and although he has lost a lot of weight, he still is not where he needs to be. Coach Bill Parcells can't be pleased.... If WR Jerome Pathon hadn't shown he could return from a severe foot sprain after leaving the Colts and signing with the Saints last year, the Colts never would have taken a chance on WR Brandon Stokley, who is coming back from the same injury. The Colts believe Stokley, a free agent who played for the Ravens last season, is going to be a significant part of their offense. Pathon caught 43 passes in 14 games for the Saints last season after catching 24 in four games for the Colts in 2001.... Once the Steelers established that Amos Zereoue would be their starting tailback, they decided to see if their depth at the position could benefit them in a trade. A lot of people suspected Jerome Bettis would be the one to go if he wasn't starting, but a more likely candidate to be dealt is Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala because he has more trade value. At 26, "Fu" is five years younger than Bettis and has carried the ball 2,701 fewer times. Fuamatu-Ma'afala started five games two seasons ago when Bettis was hurt and played pretty well.... Typically, when a player is moved to middle linebacker from outside linebacker, he bulks up. But Kevin Hardy did the opposite, dropping about five pounds to get to 250 for his new role with the Bengals. Hardy's reasoning: He wants to be able to run sideline to sideline like many of the league's premier middle linebackers. Hardy has found training camp and the preseason particularly useful this year as he adjusts to the new position. In particular, he's learning to get his pads low when dealing with shorter guards and centers in the middle of the field. As Takeo Spikes' successor in the Bengals' defense, Hardy will be scrutinized this season.

INFO OVERDRIVE

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