Reaping the rewards: a deep farm system and deeper pockets have the Cubs on the verge of something big in the N.L. Central��this season and for the near future - Baseball

Baseball players always balk at making predictions, and when the Astros' Jeff Bagwell is asked to pick the winner of the National League Central, he's too flummoxed to venture guess. "As weird as this division has been," Bagwell says, "you don't know what's going to happen."

The best way to form a powerhouse in the Central would be to combine the Cubs' starting pitchers with the Astros' relievers and Cardinals' position players. The division is so weak, the stripped-down Reds and Pirates began the week closer to first place than two big-spending teams in the N.L. West, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.

It's weird, all right--so weird, the future actually is clearer than the present, thanks to the emergence of the Cubs' Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Co.

The 2003 Central will be remembered for one thing, and it's not Randall Simon's attack on a racing sausage or Sammy Sosa's use of a corked bat or how quickly the division champion gets knocked out of the playoffs. No, the flawed, frenzied Central often a development of far more lasting significance:

The Cubs' days as lovable losers are over.

Their young starting pitching is that good, their farm system that deep, their resources that vast. New manager Dusty Baker is rapidly eroding a tradition of failure that dates back nearly a century. General manager Jim Hendry, who took over little more than a year ago, is showing the moxie necessary to shake a franchise out of its doldrums. Put it all together, and Cardinals G.M. Walt Jocketty says of the Cubs, "They're always going to be there."

The Cubs' modest offseason acquisitions and recent additions offer only a glimpse of what lies ahead. Hendry increased his payroll by only about $2 million in midseason trades for Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, Doug Glanville, Simon and Tony Womack. And in the estimation of one rival scout, the Cubs "didn't give up much of anything."

Prospect currency is as valuable in today's game as actual currency, and the Cubs are the only team in the Central that possesses both. Imagine where they might be if they hadn't traded the 2002 A.L. Rookie of the Year, Eric Hinske, and a leading candidate for 2003 N.L Rookie of the Year, Dontrelle Willis. Humbling as those deals were, it's a testament to the Cubs that they have waves of young talent, especially pitching talent, to replace what was lost.

The Astros and Cardinals, restricted by payroll limitations and meager farm systems, are in more difficult positions. The Astros are burdened by the contracts of Jeff Bagwell, Richard Hidalgo and Craig Biggio, and their $62 million payroll is considerably below the Cubs at $76 million and Cardinals at $84 million. The Cardinals are in something of a holding pattern as they await a new ballpark, but they could become an even more potent force once the facility opens, possibly by 2006. And though the Cubs never will spend excessively" under the Tribune Co., they likely will be the only team in the Central to pursue a major free agent this offseason, with shortstop Miguel Tejada an inviting target.

Consider the moves of the past several weeks. Relievers Dan Miceli and Rick White, the Astros' only additions, represent little more than middle-inning depth. The Cardinals jettisoned two relievers they acquired, Estaban Yan and Pedro Borbon, then obtained two other pitchers, Sterling Hitchcock and Mike DeJean, more than three weeks after the July 31 non-waiver deadline. One reason they waited on Hitchcock was because the Yankees initially asked for minor leaguers that the Cardinals were uncomfortable removing from their thin nucleus.

Judging farm systems is tricky--the Astros appeared loaded two years ago, but some players get hurt, and others level out. By 2005, half the Cubs' pitchers might be busts, catcher John Buck and outfielder Jason Lane could be Astros mainstays and Jimmy Journell, Chris Narveson and Rhett Parrott could join Dan Haren and Matt Morris in an all-homegrown Cardinals rotation. The Cubs, however, already are a step ahead. They know that Prior and Zambrano will be in their rotation through at least 2007, and Kerry Wood could join them if he signs a contract extension beyond next season.

Perhaps the most intriguing question with the Cubs is how they will handle their young players. Baker trusts veterans the way classic rock stars trust old hits, often preferring them to promising new material Twelve of the Cubs' 25 current players are 33 or older, including the newly acquired Lofton and Womack. "Do you want to win, or do you want to lose while you develop?" Baker asks. "I'll take a whole team fall of young players if they're ready to play in the big leagues. If they're not ready and you need to win, what do you do?"

You trade them, as the Cubs did with Bobby Hill, whom they originally projected as their opening day second baseman, then used as bait for Ramirez and Lofton. Or you demote them, as the Cubs did with first baseman Hee Seop Choi, who was starting to struggle even before he suffered a concussion in a collision with Wood on June 7.

Those, however, are just two examples, and Choi remains a major part of the Cubs' future. Three other youngsters--Prior, Zambrano and Corey Patterson, who is injured--have flourished under Baker. Ramirez, 25, likely will be the team's third baseman through 2005. Simon, 28, could compete with Choi at first base.

It's a delicate balance, especially when the team hasn't won a World Series since 1908 and the manager's specialty is transforming seemingly washed-up players such as Mark Grudzielanek into valued contributors. "You'd love to have young guys like (Alfonso) Soriano or Albert Pujols," Baker says. "But how many of those guys are there around? We're in a performance game, a need-to-know game.... How many good young teams are out there? You can count them on one hand."

Hendry helped build the Cubs' farm system after joining the club in November 1994. It's difficult to envision him adopting the Yankees' strategy of using prospects solely to acquire the veteran of the moment. The Cubs, like every other team in the non-Steinbrenner universe, operate under a budget. And developing stars for other clubs is not their idea of fun.

The point is, they have options, and that will give them an edge. The Cardinals will remain an elite club, especially with Jim Edmonds, Pujols and Scott Rolen under their control through at least 2006. The Astros will regain payroll flexibility and replenish their farm system. The Reds could improve quickly after they hire a new general manager, and even the Pirates and Brewers will awaken someday.

The Cubs, though, enter September with a chance to win their first division title since 1989, an impressive feat considering they won only 67 games last season. Baker says he was so excited by the team's potential that when the Cubs offered to sign him for three years last winter, he asked for four. "The Braves didn't build 11 or 12 division titles in one year," Baker says. "They got better and better and better."

The Cubs wouldn't dare do that, would they?

"This," Baker says, "is the start."

                                 CARDINALS

Making                     This is a club known for finishing fast.
their case                 The Cards are 57-20 in September since
                           2000, including 21-6 last season. Also,
                           they pound average pitching as well as any
                           team in the N.L. The Cards rank first in
                           the league in on-base percentage and bating
                           average and second in runs scored and
                           homers.

Breaking                   First, there's the bullpen. The club has
their case                 blown 27 save opportunities--more than
                           twice as many as the Astros or Cubs. Then
                           there's the rotation, which has been
                           treading water all season. Finally, when
                           the best deals the club can make are for
                           Sterling Hitchcock and Mike DeJean, you
                           start to wonder if this is going to be the
                           Cardinal's season.

Aces                       Matt Morris has had his share of struggles
are                        since June, with a sore shoulder followed
wild                       by a broken finger followed by a sprained
                           ankle. But he pitched well in his return
                           last week, looking rested and ready for the
                           stretch. To stay in the race, the
                           Cardinals must have Morris pitch as he did
                           the first two months (6-3, 2.37) instead
                           of the past three (2-3, 8.01).

Scheduling matters         They play 14 games against playoff
                           contenders in September, the most of the
                           three clubs.

Numbers to note            10-21, their record in one-run games
                           entering the week. The Cubs were 21-13
                           and the Astros 16-20.

The crystal ball says ...  The team's three-year run of reaching the
                           postseason will end because the Cardinals
                           won't be able to overcome their seasoning
                           inconsistency.

                           ASTROS

Making                     Billy Wagner, the division's dominant
their case                 closer, is having one of the best seasons
                           of his career and regularly is reaching
                           100 mph on the radar gun. The Astros have
                           plenty of strong arms to set up for him
                           and a grizzled lineup that is used to
                           winning games in September.

Breaking                   Including Roy Oswalt, four of their young
their case                 starters were drafted by the club in the
                           20th round or later. They'll be good, too,
                           but expecting them to deliver a division
                           title this season is expecting too much.
                           Besides the rotation woes, Jeff Kent's
                           wrist has been a season long concern, and
                           the Killer B's (Jeff Bagwell, Lance
                           Berkman, Craig Biggio) have not produced
                           to their normal standards.

Aces                       Perhaps no pitcher wants the ball more
are                        than Oswalt, but he has spent so much of
wild                       the season on the disabled list (groin)
                           that anything he can give the Astros in
                           the final weeks would be a bonus. The
                           Astros even have talked about shutting him
                           down for the season. Oswalt says he can
                           throw without pain from a flat surface;
                           unfortunately for him, the mound is 10
                           inches high.

Scheduling matters         They have only 10 home games in September,
                           and they open the month with 10 straight
                           on the road.

Numbers to note            235, the team's batting average since the
                           All-Star break. It's the lowest in the N.L.

The crystal ball says ...  They'll stay in the race until the final
                           days, but the rotation's lack of experience
                           will be their downfall.

                           CUBS

Making                     The Cubs' rotation is so deep that All-Star
their case                 Kerry Wood begins the month as the club's
                           third-best starter behind a couple of
                           22-year-olds, Mark Prior and Carlos
                           Zambrano. Oh, yes, don't forget about their
                           superstar slugger. Sammy Sosa remains on a
                           mission to win back his popularity.

Breaking                   History, of course, is not on their side.
their case                 Forget this is the team that hasn't won
                           a World Series since 1908 or been to one
                           since 1945. The Cubs have won only two
                           division titles in their history and none
                           since 1989.

Aces                       Wood's days as staff ace likely have ended
are                        for a couple of reasons: 1. The emergence
wild                       of Prior; 2. Wood's inconsistency. Wood
                           says his sometimes-cranky back is fine,
                           and he's still throwing in the mid-90s,
                           but something isn't working. He was bashed
                           around in his two most recent starts,
                           against the Dodgers and Astros. Entering
                           the week, he was 1-4 with a 7.31 ERA in
                           his past six games.

Scheduling matters         They play only eight games against winning
                           teams in the final month, and none after
                           a trip to Puerto Rico September 9-11.

Numbers to note            6 position players have been acquired since
                           July 22 to beef up the offense. So far,
                           none has taken much heat off Sosa.

The crystal ball says ...  The Cubs will win the division and Dusty
                           Baker--surprise!--will be hailed as a savior.
                           Then they'll lose in four in the first
                           round.--Stan McNeal.

Handicapping the Central

In the past five seasons, it has taken at least 93 victories to win the N.L. Central. It won't take that many this year. At the start of the week, the Cardinals and the Astros, who were tied for first, were looking at 23-10 Finishes just to reach 90. Considering none of the contenders has been more than 11 games over 500 all season, it looks like a match of mediocrity to the finish.

Chicago's fountain of youth

The Cubs' pitching depth is the envy of baseball. A top 10 list of their best young arms consists entirely of pitchers 26 or younger.

Mark Prior, 22. One scout says he's already the best pitcher in the National League. Prior has it all--electric stuff, pinpoint control and textbook mechanics--and the Cubs control him through 2008.

Kerry Wood, 26. He leads the majors in strikeouts but never has won more than 13 games in a season. Because he is a free agent after next season, the Cubs likely will attempt to sign him to an extension this winter.

Carlos Zambrano, 22. Throwing 95 mph with sink, Zambrano is gaining the confidence that comes with dominance. Since the All-Star break, he's 6-1 with a 1.51 ERA.

Juan Cruz 24. Club officials still envision him as a starter, even though he currently is at Class AAA. "He doesn't realize how good he is yet," catcher Damian Miller says.

Angel Guzman, 21. The Cubs' best young pitcher in spring training, Guzman underwent shoulder surgery in July and is expected to be ready by next spring.

Todd Wellemeyer, 25. His promise was evident when he shuck out 13 and walked none in his first 7 2/3 major league innings. He projects as either a starter or a setup man.

Francis Beltran, 23. The hard thrower is thriving at Class AAA and could be in the Cubs' bullpen next season.

Jon Liecester, 24. Another possible setup man who could be a factor by 2005.

Jae Kuk Ryu, 20. A high school pitcher signed out of Korea, Ryu is a complete package who already is at Class AA.

Sergio Mitre, 22. One of the Cubs' prospects most in demand at the trade deadline, Mitre likely will spend next season at Class AAA.--K.R.

E-mail senior writer Ken Rosenthal at krosenthal@sportingnews.com.

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