How AFL-CIO members voted in the 1984 election

AFL-CIO members gave Walter Mondale a bigger vote than the general electorate gave Ronald Reagan, according to two nationwide election night surveys completed by Pollsters Peter Hart and Vic Fingerhut.

Sixty-one percent of AFL-CIO members voted for the Mondale-Ferraro ticket, compared to 41 percent of the general electorate, a 20-point difference. Ronald Reagan captured only 39 percent of the union-member vote. This shift toward the Democratic Presidential candidate was all the more remarkable in the face of a sizable move in the opposite direction on the part of other voters.

The results show that Walter Mondale won a considerably larger share of the vote among Democratic AFL-CIO members than he did among all Democrats; similarly, Ronald Reagan's margin with Independents was considerably smaller among union voters than in the national electorate. Pollster Peter Hart notes the significance of these figures:

"These results are important, because they indicate that the impact of AFL-CIO affiliation transcended party identification in members' voting decisions . . . In an election in which the Democratic nominee was severely weakened by major defections from the ranks of Democratic voters, the AFL-CIO was successful in maintaining a high degree of Democratic solidarity among its membership."

Union members who voted for Reagan do not support many specific programs of his Administration, according to the AFL-CIO polls. By large majorities, union members who voted for Reagan oppose Administration plans to cut back on education and job training programs, deregulate worker safety and health protection, impose a new tax on employer-paid fringe benefits, and reduce the role of labor unions in society. The Surveys

The surveys were commissioned by the AFL-CIO to gain insight into the voting patterns and attitudes of AFL-CIO members and their households.

The first telephone survey of 1,031 voters in households in which AFL-CIO members reside was completed by Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc. A random sample was selected from the AFL-CIO membership list covering all 50 states. Interviews were completed with anyone who indicated he or she had voted in the presidential election. Sixty percent were members; forty percent were non-members living in the household.

A second sample of AFL-CIO members only was interviewed by Fingerhut-Granados Opinion Research. Telephone interviews were completed with 1,011 members using identical survey questions.

The two surveys were later combined to provide larger subgroups for analysis by the Hart polling organization. The data reflects the same proportion of males, females and racial groups as that determined by the Survey of Current Population of the U.S. Bureau of the Census for union members. The margin of error for the combined sample of 1,683 AFL-CIO members is 2.5 percent; that for the 1,031 AFL-CIO households is 3.2 percent. Comparison With Network Exit Polls

According to the Hart poll, AFL-CIO household voter (non-members as well as members) supported Mondale over Reagan by a 57 percent to 43 percent ratio. Several network exit polls accorded Mondale a slightly lesser proportion--53 to 55 percent of the "union household" vote.

Why this difference? Network exit polls include many households with whom the AFL-CIO has no chance to communicate: Teamsters and other non-affiliated unions and associations. Some of these organizations endorsed President Reagan, others have no political program.

The difference grows even larger when the sample is limited to AFL-CIO members. In both the Hart and Fingerhut surveys, the pro-Mondale percentage among AFL-CIO members was 61 percent. CBS exit poll data also show union members supporting Mondale by a higher proportion (57 percent) than union households (53 percent).

The voting patterns are even more significant when compared with all other voters in the electorate. The ABC network exit polls, for example, shows an 18-point difference in the vote for Walter Mondale when comparing "union households" to "all others." If the AFL-CIO member-support level for Mondale (61 percent) is used for the comparison, the difference increases to 25 percent. Voting Preferences for Congress

AFL-CIO members and household members voted for Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives in greater proportion than they voted for the Democratic Presidential nominee, as shown in the following table.

The vote for congressional Democrats was even higher among the following union-member subgroups: Hispanics, blacks, lower-income members and female members. A majority of Democrats who voted for Reagan switched back to the Democratic Party in their vote for Congress and the U.S. Senate. Presidential Preference by Demographic Subgroup

(Note: In this and subsequent sections, including the tables; all figures refer to AFL-CIO members only, a combined sample of 1,683 respondents.)

As shown in Table 3, nearly every demographic subgroup of members voted for Mondale-Ferraro by greater or lesser majorities. Exceptions to this rule were found among members who are Republicans, as well as among Independents and higher-level, white-collar workers (professional, technical and sales people).

Support for Mondale was higher among older members. Still, young members (35 years old or under) voted 54 percent for Mondale, 46 percent of Reagan. Mondale's support decreases among higher-income members; however, even those relatively affluent members with family incomes of more than $35,000 voted for Mondale by 54 to 46 percent.

Blacks voter overwhemingly for Mondale, 94 to 6 percent. Whites also voted for Mondale, by 56 to 44 percent. The Mondale majority among white AFL-CIO members stands in sharp contrast to his showing among whites in the total electorate.

Female members were more likely to vote for Mondale than males, but male members also supported the endorsed candidate. White males under 40 years old voted 52 percent for Reagan, 48 percent of Mondale, while white females under 40 favored Mondale 63 to 37 percent. Attitude on Reagan Policies

Union members who did support President Reagan in the election do not necessarily support the programs likely to be put forward by his second Administration. By overwhelming margins, AFL-CIO members indicated that they oppose Reagan policies to cut back programs that help working people and give further tax breaks to business. Significantly, opposition to these programs is strong even among members who voted for Reagan, including Republicans. Union Involvement in Politics

AFL-CIO members want their unions to participate in political and legislative action (Table 5.) Strong majorities affirm that unions speak up for all working people and seek legislation that benefits them. Members believe unions are needed to balance big-business influence in government and politics. Significantly, support for union legislation and political action is high among Independents and Democrats for Reagan, two key groups of members with whom unions must communicate effectively in future elections. Union Members' Political Profile

In Tables 6 and 7, several subgroups are defined to help analyze why certain members who normally vote Democratic or are Independents appear to be leaning away from the Democrats at this time. Republican members appear to be more set in their preferences and more difficult to persuade to vote against their party's candidate in national elections. But Independents and Democrats who voted for Reagan are still open to persuasion. By measuring how far their opinions diverge from the total sample on various issues, it is possible to discover which issues may be persuasive in future elections. Several important subgroups are defined as follows:

* Independents--persons who say they are independent or are not sure when asked to describe their orientation as, mostly Democratic, leaning Democratic, completely independent, leaning Republican, or mostly Republican."

* Democrats for Reagan--persons who describe themselves as "Democrats" or "leaning Democratic" and who say they voted for Reagan in 1984.

* Switched to Reagan--persons who say they voted for Carter in 1980 and voted for Reagan in 1984.

* Critical Democrats--persons who say they are "Democrats" or "leaning Democratic" and who agree with either of the two following statements: "I used to support the Democratic Party a lot more than I do now," or "the Democratic Party has gotten too far away from the traditions of Roosevelt, Truman and Kennedy."

* Republicans--persons who say "Republican" or "leaning Republican" when asked to describe their orientation toward political parties.

* Democrats--persons who say they are "Democrats" or "leaning Democratic" when asked to describe their political party orientation. Issues for the Future

Members were asked to name one or two issues facing the country which they personally thought were most important when "looking ahead to the future." (Concern about an issues does not necessarily imply a position regarding that issue.) They were also asked which political party would do a better job in the future of handling eight selected issues, regardless of how they voted in this election. Their answers are instructive to those who hope to win union support in future elections. 1. Jobs and Economic Policy

Economic question top the agenda of future issues for AFL-CIO members with 64 percent mentioning such things as unemployment, jobs, the economy, inflation, prices and interest rates (Table 6). For blacks, Hispanics and "leaning Democrats," jobs are an even stronger priority.

Members believe the Democrats would do the best job of dealing with unemployment and creating new jobs by a 48 percent to 24 percent ratio. This is not as great a margin as one might expect from past surveys. Significantly, several key targeted groups now believe the Republican Party would do a better job on this issue: Independents, Democrats who voted for Reagan, and members who voted for Carter in 1980 but switched to Reagan in 1984.

What kind of economic program will best persuade members to stay with the Democrats of re-orienting party policy toward a more free-enterprise, "free-trade" approach that gives greater priority to emerging, high-tech industries. There is little evidence in this survey that such an approach will be effective in attracting union members.

As shown in Table 4, AFL-CIO union members oppose policies that increase the importing of foreign goods in the name of fighting inflation but at the cost of American jobs. Members support government programs to rebuild traditional domestic manufacturing industries.

When asked what the Democratic Party should do in the future (Table 8), the strongest response (58 percent) among all members was to "fight harder to protect American jobs from cheap foreign imports." This reponse was chosen by an even higher proportion (62 percent) of members who are Democrats critical of their own party's policy direction.

The response to the same question that drew the smallest proportion of all subgroups was "give more support to new high-tech businesses and not worry so much about older industries." 2. Foreign Policy

foreign policy rated a close second on AFL-CIO members' future agenda (Table 6), with 59 percent mentioning some international issue. Comments about war, peace and nuclear arms not necessarily reflecting a single position on these issues were made by 33 percent. The need for a stronger defense was mentioned by 11 percent, while 10 percent mentioned cutting defense expenditures. Two percent specifically mentioned Central America.

Several subgroups put foreign policy issues ahead of jobs and the economy. These included switchers to Reagan, younger whites, white women, white men under 40, white Independents under 40, upper-income, college-educated, and higher-level white-collar workers.

Past surveys have shown that voters, including union members, prefer the Democrats as the party best able to negotiate a nuclear arms agreement with the Soviets and (by a much smaller margin) to keep world peace. Among those who mentioned war-peace concerns, Mondale won 66 percent to Reagan's 34 percent. There is evidence, however, that Reagan neutralized this issue with some voters. With the exception of female members, most other groups who were more likely to mention war-peace nuclear concerns were also more likely to voter for Reagan. For example, 47 percent of 18-34-year-old whites mentioned this issue and 50 percent of them voted for Reagan.

When it comes to "having sound defense policies" or "dealing with Soviet-Cuban aggression," the Democrats fare worse than on any other issues tested. Members as a whole prefer Republicans to deal with defense by a ratio of 42 percent to 29 percent. One out of four Democrats said the Republicans would do a better job on this issue. Democrats who voted for Reagan and Carter voters who switched to Reagan give their defense preference to the Republican Party by ratios as large as 15 to 1.

The Republicans also fare disproportionately well on the defense issue among white men, younger members, those with upper-middle incomes ($25,000-$35,000), low-income blue-collar workers, Independents, and higher-level white-collar workers. Democrats are preferred to handle the defense issue by blacks, white women under 40, and those who identify themselves as strong Democrats. 3. Budget and Tax Issues

Concerns about the budget deficit, government spending, taxes and tax reform were mentioned by 24 percent of the respondents. Only 3 percent specifically mentioned tax increases as an issue.

The Democrats are clearly preferred as the party that will do the best job in "making the tax system fairer to working people," by a ratio of 55 percent to 2o percent.

On the question of "dealing with the federal budget deficit," members are not so certain--39 percent say the Democrats will do a better job, 27 percent say the Republicans, and 34 percent say both are equal or they are not sure.

Independents prefer the Democrats on the fairness issue and the Republicans on the deficit issue. The Democrats have failed to persuade key target groups on the tax fairness question: Democrats for Reagan and switchers to Reagan. 4. Other Domestic Issues

Issues such as social security, the elderly, health care, education, environment, poverty, race relations and unions were mentioned by 22 percent of respondents. Of these issues, the msot frequently mentioned was social security (6 percent). Concerns about social security, health care and elderly-related issues were especially high among women, persons over 50 years old, lower-income respondents, and southern white Democrats. Education was of special concern to women and blacks.

The Democratic Party is the clear favorite for "protecting social security and Medicare" and for "representing the interests of working people," according to the survey. This preference holds for all demographic subgroups and for the target groups, Democrats for Reagan and Carter voters who switched to Reagan. Only Republican members believe otherwise. From previous surveys, we know that voters, as well as union members, believe the Democratic Party to be best at dealing with education, the environment, the elderly and helping minorities and the poor.

Some Democratic candidates have become leery of advocating several of these issues because of the perceived trade-off: they cost money, add to the deficit and lead to a tax increase. While this may be true for some issues, it does not appear to be a problem for AFL-CIO members on the questions of Medicare, social security, unemployment benefits and health care. Three-fourths of the respondents want to continue full funding for these programs, "even if it means an increase in taxes." Even Republican members agree with this proposition, by 55 percent to 35 percent. 5. Social Issues

Only 5 percent of the respondents mentioned as "most important" abortion, crime and drug abuse, corruption, school prayer, welfare abuse, women's rights and other "social issues." Abortion was a slightly more significant issue with Republicans, Democrats for Reagan, switchers to Reagan, 18-34-year-old whites, those with family incomes of $15,000-$25,000, and clerical-sales workers. Of those few who mentioned abortion, three-fourths voted for Reagan.

A relatively higher proportion of Democrats for Reagan and switchers from Carter to Reagan (12 to 14 percent) mentioned social-issue concerns. For this small but significant group, such social questions might be a decisive reason for their defection from traditional Democratic voting patterns.

Thirty-nine percent of respondents did not choose either political party as best "representing your viewpoint on issues like abortion, gay rights, and other social questions." For those who chose, Democrats are preferred by 35 percent, Republicans by 26 percent. The preference is reversed among Independents, white men, whites 65 and older, upper-middle-income whites, less well-educated whites and low-income blue-collar workers.

Among key persuasions groups--Democrats for Reagan and switchers to Reagan--the preference for the Republicans on social questions is much more decisive. Message to the Political Parties

Although the Republicans have made some gains among certain subgroups of union members as the party best able to deal with defense issues, social questions, the deficit and, to a lesser degree, the economy, President Reagan faces great resistance from members on most of the domestic initiatives now being considered by his Administration. If there is an economic downturn and no change in Republican policies, the party is likely to lose even this advantage, except perhaps among those few members who place to priority on defense and containing Soviet expansion.

For Democrats, there are both hopeful signs and warning signals in these poll results. A majority of AFL-CIO members still considers themselves Democrats, and these union Democrats remained far more loyal to Mondale than did Democrats sampled in the network exit polls. Nonetheless, a significant proportion of Democratic members (40 percent) agrees with the statement, "I used to support the Democratic Party a lot more than I do now." And 39 percent of Democratic members agree that, "the Democrats have gotten too far away from the traditions of Roosevelt, Truman and Kennedy."

These survey results make it clear that an overwhelming majority of AFL-CIO members opposes the retrogressive direction of Reagan Administration policies, Union men and women what government action to protect American jobs against excessive imports and continued federal support for public education, job training programs, medical care and old-age insurance.

These workers oppose proposals to impose federal taxes on employer-paid health and pension benefits and oppose any further cutting of taxes on corporations.

Clearly, the substantial majority of members surveyed has more confidence in the Democratic Party for dealing with the issues most important to workers. These members show a clear preference for the mainstream Democratic traditions of Roosevelt, Truman and Kennedy to use federal government authority to assure the ultimate fairness of the American economic and political system.

The political agenda preferred by the majority of AFL-CIO members emphasizes policies that create jobs and protect programs for workers' safety, health and old-age security.

One of the many conclusions that can be drawn from these surveys is that union members' political affinities cannot be taken for granted.

AFL-CIO members are affected by the same media, community, social and economic influences that all Americans react to. But union members have the additional resource of their union political education programs to help them make important decisions. These independent polls show that a large majority of rank-and-file members understands which issues are most crucial to working people and which political candidates are most likely to be sympathetic to their concerns.

COPYRIGHT 1984 AFL-CIO
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group