Migration and security are interrelated - The World Watcher

No one knows how many international migrants there are. The head of the Geneva-based International Organization for Migration ventured an estimate of 120,000,000 in 1994--about two percent of the world's population. Given events in Africa, the numbers are growing. These huge waves of people are making life difficult for developed, developing, and poor countries alike. In Zaire, migrants are the proximate cause of a war that is spreading over an area three times the size of Texas.

In region after region, from Africa to the Middle East to the Americas and Europe, migrants are a problem. One category is those who claim asylum. In 1995, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimated there were 15,00O,000 legitimate asylum seekers. However, this figure does not include huge populations not officially recognized. For instance, roughly half of Bosnia-Herzegovina's population of 4,00O,000 was displaced. Of the more than 1,00O,000 Bosnians abroad, most have not been recognized as refugees, but, rather, have been granted temporary haven (a rather fanciful official designation suggesting they will be repatriated).

Another huge category of migrants is the internally displaced--refugees within their own countries, but without the protection of government. The U.S. Committee for Refugees estimates the global population of internally displaced at 20,000,000. Events in Central Africa are illustrative. Years ago, Tutsi refugees who fled the ethnic strife in Rwanda found haven in neighboring Uganda. There, the Tutsis regrouped. In 1994, the Tutsis attacked Rwanda from Ugandan territory. Their advance triggered the organized slaughter of Tutsis and moderate Hutus in Rwanda. About 500 Tutsis were killed, but they regrouped again and retook Rwanda.

Millions of Hutus fled retribution to Tanzania and Zaire in 1995. In short order, Tanzania forced out most of the Hutu refugees. Some of these Hutus returned to Rwanda and were killed. Zaire also threatened to force the Hutu refugees back to Rwanda in the autumn of 1996. International agencies opposed forced repatriation, but dithered for months. Canada pushed for an international intervention to help the Hutus go home safely, but the U.S. stalled. Part of American indifference was a case of election campaign-inspired attention deficit disorder to foreign policy of all kinds.

Earlier this year, a Tutsi insurrection progressed in eastern Zaire, whose neighbors abetted the rebel advance on the tottering Zairian dictatorship. The fall of Zaire seems all but certain, and there looms the prospect of a new scramble for Africa after a century of at least geographic stability. The collapse of African frontiers could presage an ethnic cleansing that would make events in the former Yugoslavia look tepid.

Other cases confirm what seems to be a late-20th-century pattern of huge migrations accompanied by significant instability. In the wake of the defeat of Iraqi forces in 1991, long-suffering Kurds in Iraq's north rebelled. Iraq's army was able to suppress the rebellion, which led millions of Kurds to flee to Turkey, where thousands of them already were. The Turkish government long had been troubled by Kurdish agitation for recognition of Kurdish autonomy, and the Turks viewed the mass flight to its territory with alarm. Therefore, they stopped the Kurds at the frontier, as Saddam Hussein's gun-ships herded them up the mountains to the border.

For a while, the U.S. created a "safe zone" over northern Iraq that enabled most of the Kurdish population to return, secure from Saddam. In 1996, though, a U.S.-supported coalition of rival Kurdish factions in northern Iraq crumbled.

Iran backed one faction, while Iraq's government backed another. Meanwhile, Turkey, increasingly concerned about Turkish Kurdish separatists' activities in northern Iraq, sent its army there to attack rebel bases and effectively sealed the border while Saddam reimposed his authority on the North. Hundreds of U.S.-supported Kurds, perhaps thousands, were murdered.

The common thread in so many conflicts around the world is migration. Conflicts in one state spill over to another. Further illustrative of this pattern is the conflict in Algeria between the government and Islamic fundamentalist rebels, which has spread to France-where some 700,000 Algerian citizens reside. Indeed, many French citizens are of Algerian Muslim background. Several years ago, the Algerian military government canceled elections that would have led to a victory for an Islamic fundamentalist. In the ensuing war, some 60,000 to 70,000 Algerians have been killed. Islamic fundamentalists blamed France, which had supported the Algerian government's repression. As a consequence, Paris and other French cities have suffered a rash of bomb attacks.

While political violence by foreign-origin populations is an important concern in many states around the world, usually only a minority of aliens is involved. It is important to keep migration-related security concerns in perspective. Overreaction and mistaking all migrants for terrorists is unfair, of course. What is overlooked is that most international migrants are innocent of anything at all and wholly vulnerable.

Any discussion of migration and security in Germany, for instance, would be incomplete without taking into account German violence against foreigners. The situation in France is even more dangerous. Violence against foreign-born or immigrant-origin populations threatens integration and security. Governments have major stakes in incorporating migrants or seeing that they safely are repatriated, and preventing violence. Hence, migrant integration is a worldwide priority if civil and international order are going to be sustained in the coming years.

Dr. Miller is professor of political science and international politics, University of Delaware, Newark.

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