Forecasts for 1991/92 - world wheat, corn, barley, rice and oats trade - U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service Report

WHEAT

The forecast of 1991/92 world wheat trade is up marginally Forecasts for China, Brazil Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, and Eastern Europe were increased to reflect the pace of shipment to those countries to date. Reduced import forecasts for Lebanon, Turkey, Bolivia, and a number of "other countries" only partially offset these increases.

Among the importers:

* Recent data on sales and shipment to date now point to higher wheat imports by China 1991/92 than originally forecast. This month's 500,000-ton increase in the import forecast is expected to come mainly from Canada.

* The forecast for Brazil's wheat imports primarily from Argentina and Canada, was raised an additional 500,000 tons this month. Brazil's two consecutive poor wheat crops have required larger wheat imports in 1991/92 than originally expected.

* The wheat import forecast for Malaysia was raised 200,000 tons this month due to strong recent demand from the milling sector and heavy early year (1991/92) imports of feed quality wheat. Canada and Saudi Arabia are both expected to export record quantities to Malaysia this year Autralia, the traditional major supplier, deals with limited exportable supplies.

Among the exporters:

* The forecast for the United States' wheat exports was raised 1 million tons this month due to recent announcement of additional credit for the Russian Federation.

* Eastern Europe's wheat export forecast was raised 230,000 tons this month due to increased commitments by Yugoslavia to the republics of the former Soviet Union.

* The projection for EC's wheat exports is down 500,000 tons this month due to continued delays in authorizing French COFACE credit for purchases by the republics of the former Soviet Union.

* Canada has banned over 50 vessels of the republics of the former Soviet Union an dother countries from calling at any Canadian ports because of possible infestation of the Asian Gypsy moth. The ban is scheduled at least until July 31, 1992. However, additional shipments to China, Malaysia, and other countries are expected to offset this problem.

U.S. officials are inspecting all vessels included on the "prohibited" list as they call at all U.S. ports. Should a vessel be identified as infested by the Asian Gypsy moth, it will be ordered out of U.S. shipping and grain industry representatives are in close contact with U.S. Goverment officials on this issue. To date, none of the vessels have called at U.S. ports, and last year less than 30 of the vessels on the list called at U.S. ports.

CORN

The forecast for total world corn imports was increased by 800,000 tons this month.

* Korea's corn imports are forecast up 500,000 tons due to increased demand the feed sector.

* The continued drought in Southern Africa is the primary reason for increases in import forecasts for corn this month for South Africa, up 500,000 tons; Zambia, up 100,000 tons; and Zimbabwe, up 350,000 tons. In addition to drought, extensive refugee feeding programs are responsible for increases in corn import forecasts for Malawi and Mozambique of 200,000 and 100,000 tons, respectively.

* Malaysia corn imports are forecast up 150,000 tons due to continued strong feed demand.

* Chile corn imports are forecast to rise 160,000 tons due to expansion of the pork an poultry sectors and increased feed demand.

Corn imports are forecast down this month for the following countries:

* Cuba corn imports are forecast down 425,000 tons due to financial constraints.

* Egypt corn imports are forecast douwn 1 million tons due to limited purchases to date.

On the export side, the forecast for Argentina has been increased as a result of a forecast increase in Argentina' crop. The forecast for china was increased as a result of strong exports to Korea.

* Aggressive early season corn sales to countries affected by the drought in the central southern African region haver gotten the Argentine March/February 1992/93 marketing year program off to a strong start. Recent sales commitments to all destinations reportedly are over 1 million tons.

BARLEY

World barley trade for 1991/92 is forecast to be largely unchanged this month.

RICE

World rice trade for CY 1992 is forecast to increase about 105,000 tons this month to 13.5 million tons. Half of this increase is from Australia, as higher prodution could lead to record Australian rice exports. The remainder of the increase in forecast rice exports comes fro minor exporters.

* For CY 1992 Autralia is expected to increase its exports to a recor 550,000 tons, as significantly higher production levels will likely results in more exports, primarily to Middle Eastern markets.

OATS

* The export forecast for Poland was increased 20,000 tons to 50, 000 tons reflecting its return to an export position. The United States has imported about 37,000 tons of oats from Poland so far in the current marketing year.

COPYRIGHT 1992 U.S. Department of Agriculture
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