Former USSR grain situation and outlook - 1991/92 grain supply and demand estimates; United States assistance to Russia and the former Soviet Republics - U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service Report

The overall supply and use estimates for grain for 1991/92 for the republics of the former Soviet Union (FSU) remain unchanged form last month.

Crop and Weather Developments

In March, above-normal precipitation over Moldova and central Ukraine reversed a drying trend, improving moisture conditions for winter grains. Below-normal precipitation over most of North Caucasus, Volga Valley, and Black Soils Region helped firm up topsoils for spring grain planting. Weather conditions were unseasonably warm in March, with average temperatures ranging from 3 to 6 degrees Celsius above normal. As a result, most winter grain areas lost snow cover, except for those in the northeast where snow cover remained moderate to deep. the mild weather promoted greening of wheat in Ukraine and North Caucasus. Since early April, continued unseasonably warm weather stimulated further greening in winter grains. Generally dry weather in southeastern areas allowed spring grain planting to become more widespead.

Trade Developments

About 35 million tons of projected grain imports from all destination apper to have been committed to date for 1991/92 (July/June) delivery. However, grain covered by the French COFACE credit guarantee is still being held up by negotiations and some is likely to be shipped in the next marketing year. The 500 million European Currency Units (ECU) also has been delayed by negotiations, but recent reports indicate that delivery may begin this month. According to press reports, the EC has signed contracts for 500,000 tons of wheat and 750,000 tons of barley under the 500 million ECU credit. Canada's program may be set back due to restrictions on FSU vessels transporting grain. These delays are expected to be offset by U.S. grain sales. More U.S. grain will be sold under the $600 credit guarantees for Russia announced on April 1, 1992. The credit mix is assumed to be similar to the $1.25 billion allocated since last November, with monthly allocation from May through August. The remaining credits for other republics of the FSU will be reflected in the forecasts after they meet program qualifications.

As of April 2, for th e1991/92 July/June year, wheat purchases from the United States totaled around 7.0 million tons and corn purchases were 7.7 million tons. In addition, the United States has donated 300,000 tons of corn to Estonia, Latvia, and lithuania. U.S. rice sales total 25,000 tons under the Export Enhancement Program.

United States Announce $1.1 Billion Credit Guarantee To Russian

Federation and other Republics

President George Bush announced on April 1 a series of additional measures to assist the independent states of the former Soviet Union. These include an immediate increase of $1.1 billion in credit guarantees for the purchase of U.S. agricultural commodities.

Up to an additional $1.1 billion will be made available under the GSM-102 program. Of this, $600 million will be available to Russia and $500 million for the Ukraine, Armenia, and other states. The Russian guarantees will be made operational in four monthly tranches beginning on May 1. The other $500 million will become available to the other republics provided they meet program qualifications.

The total amount of credit guarantees made available since January 1991 when the first allocation for the then Soviet Union was made is now $4.85 billion. As of April 1, 1992 Russia and the other republics are fully up to date repayments to banks of credits guaranteed earlier by the Commodity Credit Corporation. Since January 1, 1992, these payments have amounted to over $270 million.

Canadian Wheat Sales to FSU Affected By Asian Gypsy Moth

A restriction prohibiting FSU vessels from entering Canadian waters could cut Canada's wheat and barley sales to FSU this year. In a move to protect Canadian forests, Agriculture Canada has prohibited FSU vessels suspected of being infested with Asian Gypsy moth from entering Canadian waters. This ban, in effect until July 31, 1992, applying to all ships having called at Siberian ports known to be infested by the insect, has resulted in the expulsion or non-acceptance of 20 ships to date. Preliminary estimates indicate that the ban could result in the non-acceptance of up to an additional 50 vessels presently scheduled to call in Canada. Last year during July/June, Canada exported 6.8 million tons of wheat and 1 milliontons of barley to the FSU and has exported 2.7 milliontons of wheat and 554,000 tons of barley throught February 1992.

COPYRIGHT 1992 U.S. Department of Agriculture
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