Former USSR grain situation and outlook - 1991 grain production estimate remains unchanged; forecast level of wheat imports decreases for 1992; USDA announces availability of $200 million credit guarantee under GSM-102 program on March 2, 1992, and donates grains to Eastern Europe and republics of former Soviet Union under Agricultural Act of 1949, with an additional donation of food aid to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia under Food for Peace Program

The estimate of 1991 grain production for the republics of the former USSR remains at 175 million tons. The forecast of 1991/92 imports is unchanged from last month's 40 million tons; however, wheat has been decreased to 22 million, and coarse grains has been increased to 17 million on the July/June marketing year. A 1-million-ton decrease in barley imports has been offset by a 2-million-ton increase in corn imports. The changes in forecast imports were reflected in use, leaving projected stocks' drawdown at 8 million tons.

Trade Developments

About 34 to 36 million tons of grain imports from all destinations appear to have been committed to date for 1991/92 (July/June) delivery, including 17 to 19 million tons of wheat and 16 million of coarse grains. As of February 27, for the 1991/92 July/June year, wheat purchases from the United States totaled around 6.4 million tons and corn purchases were 7.2 million tons. In addition, the United States has donated 300,000 tons of corn to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The forecast level of wheat imports has been lowered to 22 million tons. Shipments from the European Community (EC) lagged badly during July through December. In the first 6 months, EC wheat shipments were less than 500,000 tons. German grain sold under the HERMES credit had not moved before December 1991. As of early March, the ECU500 credit arrangement proposed in December 1990 had yet to be finalized. Despite the original commitment by the EC to provide assistance to East and Central European countries' exports, no trade has been reported under this arrangement. Only around 1.6 million tons of Canadian wheat has been shipped during October through January. EC credit delays also have slowed barley shipments. Canadian shipments under credit arrangements announced in October did not begin until January 1992. Forecast barley imports have been lowered to 5.5 million tons due to the low level of imports during the first half of the July/June marketing year from the EC and Canada. However, reported corn shipments from Eastern Europe are larger than previously expected and forecast corn imports have been increased to 11 million tons for July/June.

USDA Releases $200 Million GSM-102 Credit Guarantees in Early March

USDA announced on March 2 that the $200 million credit guarantee under the GSM-102 program was available and the breakdown was as follows: $80 million for wheat, $51 million for feed grains, $14 million for protein meals, $10.5 million for soybeans, $4 million for rice, $15 for vegetable oils, and $500,000 for hops. The announcement permits sales to any of the following 11 republics: Russia, Byelarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Georgia. It does not include Ukraine, which has chosen not to participate in this phase of the export credit guarantee program. The total fiscal 1992 allocation of credit is $1.835 billion, of which $1.585 has now been made available. The remaining commodity allocation of $250 million for April has not been announced. Under the March credit allocation for grains, as of March 10, 15,000 tons of rice were sold to the republics of the former Soviet Union. This is the first rice sale to the former Soviet Union since 1979.

USDA Donates Grains to Eastern Europe and Republics of the Former Soviet Union

USDA has announced donations to the Baltics under Section 416(b) of the Agricultural Act of 1949, which authorizes the donation of surplus commodities owned by the U.S.D.A. Commodity Credit Corporation to developing countries. These include 100,000 tons of corn each to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The donation will be sold by the Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian Governments to private sector feed millers and to livestock and poultry producers in the respective country for feed. On March 5, USDA announced an additional $5 million of food aid each to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia under P.L. 480, Title I, the Food for Peace Program. No commodity allocation has been announced. As of March 6, USDA had signed agreements with private voluntary organizations to provide $115.3 million in humanitarian assistance to other newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, including Armenia, Russia, and Turkmenistan. The quantities of grain and grain products provided under the assistance program are 18,415 tons of rice, 10,800 tons of wheat flour, and 5,720 tons of bulgur wheat.

COPYRIGHT 1992 U.S. Department of Agriculture
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