International highlights - U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service report

Modernization of South Korea's textile industry is showing positive results. After a 4-year slump, the value of textile exports increased 5.4 percent in 1991 to $15.5 billion. The upturn was led by a 22.9-percent increase in fabric exports valued at $5.7 billion. Exports to the United States fell 10.6 percent to $3.53 billion in 1991 despite increases in total textile exports (mainly to Asia). India will now report data on extra-long staple (ELS) cotton based on USDA classification, which identifies ELS cotton as generally having a staple length of 1-3/8 inch or longer. India previously defined ELS as cotton with a staple length exceeding 1-1/32 inches. Only two varieties of Indian cotton meet the criteria for ELS classification of 1-3/8 inch: DCH-32 and Suvin. Only DCH-32 varieties grown in the States of Karnataka, Tamil, Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh have a staple length long enough to be called ELS. DCH-32 cotton grown in the States of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra do not meet the ELS classification. All Suvin cotton is of sufficient length to be called ELS cotton. Below is the revised supply and demand data for ELS cotton.

                            thousand 480-lb. bales
                       MY 1989/90   MY 1990/91   MY 1991/92
Beginning Stocks             16         110          52
Production                  780         634         640
Imports                       0           0           0
Total Supply                796         744         692

Exports                      39          16           0
Domestic Consumption        647         676         679
Ending Stocks               110          52          13
Total Distribution          796         744         692
Source: East India Cotton Association (EICA), and USDA/FAS.

Japan's cotton consumption and import projections are both being revised downward for MY 1991/92 to 2.85 million bales due to continued competition from imported cotton goods. Similarly, U.S. exports to Japan in MY 1991/92 are expected to decline to about 1.2 million bales for a market share of about 43 percent. The drop in market share is reportedly due to high drought-induced prices of San Joaquin Valley (SJV) cotton and weather-related quality problems with Texas cotton. Japanese spinners are substituting Australian cotton for SJV cotton and Pakistan cotton for Texas growths. Despite the popularity of the new synthetic fibers, imports of Pima cotton continue strong, and are now projected at 537,000 bales for MY 1991/92. Brazil's production forecast for 1991/92 was decreased 5 percent from last month to 3.6 million bales. However, this is still a record crop. Export projections for the 1991/92 marketing season were also lowered 21 percent to 550,000 bales, reflecting higher prices. To ease inflation pressures, the Government of Brazil increased minimum prices for the 1991/92 crop by 25.61 percent. However, in the southern state of Parana, current market prices for seed cotton range from 10.9 to 13 percent below the newly established government minimum price level. Reasons for the low prices of seed cotton in Brazil are the expected large harvest for 1991/92 in comparison to 1990/91, reduced textile product purchases during the tight economic situation, and depressed export demand. Mexico's import projection for MY 1991/92 was raised 40,000 bales to 200,000 bales. The consumption level for the current marketing year is forecast at 800,000 bales, 12 percent higher than last season. U.S. exports to Mexico through March 1992 were 196,000 bales. Production shortfalls are occurring as a result of limited access to production credits for cotton, low world cotton prices, and bad weather at harvest. Drought in the southern regions of Africa is taking its toll, particularly in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. In South Africa, affected yields led to a 25,000-bale decrease in the 1991/92 production forecast. In Zimbabwe, projected declines in yields translated into a 155,000-bale decrease in its production forecast. Production forecasts for Angola, Malawi, and Zambia declined 10,000 bales each. Mozambique's production forecast was more than halved to 60,000 bales. Zimbabwe's forecast for consumption in MY 1991/92 remains at 190,000 bales, the same level as the previous marketing year. Export forecasts were revised downward for Angola and Malawi.

COPYRIGHT 1992 U.S. Department of Agriculture
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