USSR grain situation and outlook - 1991/92 estimates for grain production, trade, and use; includes crop and weather developments, crop estimate, trade developments, $1.25 billion credit guarantee by Dept. of Agriculture, and $500 million credit package by European Community - U.S. Depart. of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service report

USSR Grain Situation and Outlook

The estimate of the 1991/92 grain production for the USSR(1) remains at 175 million tons. Estimated imports have been increased to 39 million. A 2-million-ton increase in wheat imports to 23 million tons reflects additional availabilities of the recently announced U.S. credit allocation. Projected total feed and wheat feed use is slightly up from last month at 125 million and 50 million tons, respectively, reflecting the change in the wheat import forecast. The forecast stocks change and dockage and waste estimates remain unchanged from last month.

Crop and Weather Developments

In the European USSR, lower than normal precipitation covered most winter grain areas in November, helping late-season harvesting. Exceptions were crop areas in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Northwest region where rainfall was higher than normal. During November, winter grains remained dormant in the north and entered dormancy in the south. Monthly average temperatures ranged from 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal, providing favorable hardening conditions. Since early December, the coldest weather of the season spread southward over the European USSR on December 7, continuing through the present. Minimum temperatures around -15 degrees Celsius covered winter grains as far south as the western and the northern Ukraine. Lowest temperatures of around -25 degrees Celsius covered crop areas in northern Black Soils Region, Upper Volga, and the Volga Vyatsk. Although bitter cold stressed dormant winter grains, it was accompanied by light to moderate snow, which provided protection from potential winterkill.

Crop Estimate Unchanged

The 1991 grain crop estimate of the USSR remains unchanged at 175 million tons, including 78 million for wheat, 85.5 million for coarse grains, and 11.5 million for miscellaneous grains and pulses. The total grain area estimate remains at 108.5 million hectares. Final yield/production figures have not been released for any of the oblasts or republics. Although the sowing pace of winter crops appears to be well ahead of last year, statistics have been sorely lacking. The latest official figures available showed that 34.2 million hectares of winter crops had been sown by October 14, 1991.

Trade Developments: Credit Guarantees Announced

Around 27 million tons of projected imports of grain to date appear to have been committed for 1991/92 (July-June) delivery, including nearly 14.5 million tons of wheat and more than 12 million of coarse grains. Wheat purchases from the United States as of December 11 totaled around 4.7 million tons and corn purchases were nearly 6 million tons for 1991/92 July/June.

United States Provides US$1.25 Billion Credit Guarantee

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on December 2, 1991, the commodity allocations for the $1.25 billion credit guarantee package for the Soviet Union. Of the $1.25 billion, $600 million became operational immediately; the remaining $650 million will be made available in allocations of $200 million each on February 1, 1992, and March 1, 1992 and $250 million on April 1, 1992. The total amount of credit guarantees for fiscal year 1992 is now $1.835 billion. The $600 million made available in credit guarantees has been allocated as follows: $275 million for wheat; $138 million for feed grains (barley, corn, sorghum, and oats); $67.5 million for protein meals; $22.5 million for soybeans; $22.5 million for vegetable oils; $2.25 million for hops; $2.25 million for almonds; and $70 million for the freight component of commodity sales. At the time the remaining $650 million becomes operational, commodity allocations will be made as follows: $220 million for wheat; $200 million for feed grains; $101.5 million for protein meals; $45.5 million for soybeans; $22.5 million for vegetable oils; $2.75 million for almonds; $2.75 million for hops; and $55 million for the freight component of commodity sales. The following table shows trade completed under the U.S. long-term trade agreements with the USSR.

EC Allocates Grain Under ECU$500 Million Credit Package

In the past month, the EC Management Committee allocated 800,000 tons of wheat, 1.45 million tons of barley, and 50,000 tons of durum wheat for the USSR under the ECU$500 million credit. The execution of these grain sales is to be as follows: 500,000 tons of wheat under free market tenders and 300,000 tons of wheat under intervention stock tenders, of which 150,000 tons is to be of French origin and 150,000 of German; 650,000 tons of barley under free market tenders and 800,000 tons of barley through intervention stock tenders, of which 500,000 tons will be German and 300,000 tons will be Spanish. The 50,000 tons of durum wheat will come out of Greek and/or Italian intervention stock tenders.

(1)Analysis of the USSR will continue to include all constituent republics until further notice.

COPYRIGHT 1991 U.S. Department of Agriculture
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group