GPRS subscribers in Western Europe could top 40 million by the end of 2003 if operators learn WAP lessons, says Analysys - Market Intelligence

More than 40 million Western Europeans (13 percent of all mobile phone users) will be accessing GPRS by the end of 2003, according to a new report released by Analysys, a global advisor on telecoms and new media. To accomplish this, though, mobile operators must quickly offer complete service sets, extend these to the mass market, and learn marketing lessons from the failure of WAP services.

The Reality of GPRS in Europe: Subscribers and Revenue explains that the take-up of services has been disappointingly low to date. By the end of 2001, says Analysys, 50 of Western Europe's 76 mobile operators had launched GPRS networks and around 3.3 million GPRS-enabled devices had been sold... but, significantly, fewer than one third of the device owners were using them to access packet-based cellular data services.

The main reason for the slow growth in GPRS, according to Analysys, is that operators have not yet developed complete service sets that effectively address the key issues of network management, device innovation, user-specific applications, value-based pricing and billing, and targeted marketing.

Although businesses have been the main target market for GPRS to date, the report argues that consumer-focused services will be critical for GPRS to reach its full potential. In particular, it stresses the need for operators to cater for prepaid customers, which account for 63 percent of all mobile subscribers across Western Europe and as much as 90 percent in countries such as Italy.

Services need to be appropriately tailored. Always-on e-mail is the strongest requirement for business users while, for consumers, the success of SMS highlights the demand for creating and sending large amounts of user-generated content. Consumer-oriented devices should look attractive and offer users messaging capabilities with color screens and always-on connectivity.

Third parties are likely to play an increasingly important part in the packet-based mobile service value chain, which is far more complicated than in the GSM market dominated by network operators. To be successful, according to Analysys, operators will need the input of brand owners, systems integrators, content developers and resellers.

The report looks at the reasons behind GPRS's slow start and at the current state of the market. It evaluates the strategies for operators and the industry that will best resolve the uncertainties affecting GPRS. It forecasts the subscriber numbers and revenue that can be achieved by the end of 2003 if these issues are resolved, and identifies the essential elements of an attractive GPRS service proposition. Report pricing starts from EU1105.

For more information, telephone Analysys Research on +44 (0) 1223 341300 or e-mail research@analysys.com.

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