Change is the only guarantee

Is there any worker left in America who doesn't know by now that there are no guarantees?

Lifetime employment? Pffft. Insulation from downsizing? Forget it. Ownership stability? Gone with the wind. Technological advances that make future upgrades unnecessary? Ha.

The only possible guarantee is change. So it's easy to be cynical when someone presents himself as a "business futurist." The idea that anyone could know where the business world is heading is preposterous. Yet, after listening to Bob Treadway give a daylong presentation on "Preparing Yourself for the New Millennium" to the Kansas City chapter of the Institute for Management Studies, I'd bet on him guessing right. Treadway knows that information is power. He devours it. He knows what's going on today, but he also watches signals sent from "harbinger industries." For example, Treadway is watching retail move to the Web. An executive from The Gap, which Treadway says is the largest lessee of mall real estate in the country, told him the retailer expected 20 percent of its revenue to come from Internet sales within three years. "What does that say about the future of retail stores?" Treadway said. "They may become demo centers. They may be places where you try out the merchandise but don't necessarily buy." For similar crystal ball reasons, Treadway pays attention to energy companies for their moves toward product branding, to government for outsourcing and privatization, to high-tech companies for how they attract and keep good workers, and to telecommunications companies for perpetual innovation. Treadway warns not to look just inside one's own industry for clues to the future. Competitors sweep in from unlikely angles. "You have to anticipate the razor slits of opportunity and squeeze through the narrow openings," he said, referring to industry and individual career choices. He said managers and organizations would succeed by being "plate spinners" -- by keeping options open until it's time to focus. In addition to watching "bleeding edge" industries, Treadway suggests broad-based reading and viewing. He recommends: * Paying attention to new science fiction, especially books by William Gibson and David Brin, and movies such as Gattaca, Johnny Mnemonic, Disclosure, Trigger Point, Sneakers, Demolition Man and Blade Runner. * Reading your daily newspaper and at least the section fronts of a daily paper with a circulation of 1 million or more. * Reading a weekly business magazine. He likes The Economist. * Reading a monthly business magazine. He suggests Fortune or Forbes. * Subscribing to an executive summary newsletter. He favors Executive Book Summaries and Bottom Line Business. * Reading future-looking publications. His top picks are The Futurist, Fast Company and Wired magazines. * Subscribing to online news clipping services. Explore search engines to find one that you can tailor most efficiently to meet your needs. * Watching ESPN2 and MTV. The younger generation -- your workplace competition -- is. And, even if you can manage all that, don't think you've got the future figured out. Stay ready for unexpected change.

Copyright 1998
Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved.