Hospitals confident they can beat millennium bug

SAN FRANCISCO -- Despite some frightful warnings from Y2K watchdogs, hospitals and other health services nationwide claim they will be ready for nearly anything their computers might throw at them Jan. 1.

Nobody can predict just what will happen when the calendar rolls over to 2000. Archaic bits of date-deficient software often are deeply embedded in computer systems, raising fears of cascading shutdowns even if there's no outward sign of trouble. The fears were not helped by a recent congressional review of Y2K preparedness, which found that the health industry was woefully behind in the race to search out and neutralize Y2K bugs.

Investigators plan to take a fresh look next month. But Fred Brown, chairman of the American Hospital Association, offered assurances that the critical systems -- those that could directly affect patient care -- will be bug-free in time. After a nationwide survey of hospitals last month, the trade group concluded that only a tiny fraction of mostly smaller hospitals feared any serious Y2K meltdowns. Even if something does happen, all hospitals already are required to have elaborate contingency plans, including backup power generators, for any emergency. "Anything to do with patient care certainly will be ready," Brown said. "I'd be very comfortable being a patient on Jan. 1." Hospitals alone will have spent at least $8.2 billion on the Y2K problem by the end of the year, according to the trade association. In California, about $820 million is being spent to identify and fix suspect computer systems and devices. Kaiser Permanente, the Oakland- based HMO giant that provides health care to about one in three northern Californians, has about 1,000 employees, contractors and consultants working on Y2K matters. Crews have had to deal with 139,000 pieces of medical equipment. Some 4,200 had date-related coding problems and were either patched with up-to-date software or junked. "Right now, everything is on track" to be finished by year's end, Kaiser spokesman Tom Debley said. Industrywide, most experts see little cause for alarm. "The vast majority of dates are simply used for record-keeping," said Allen Falcon, president of a Boston-based technology consulting firm, Horizon Information Group, which has produced a Y2K guide for small businesses. "Pacemakers stopping, microwave ovens exploding, elevators skyrocketing to the top of the shaft -- these things just aren't going to happen." Despite such reassurances, no one offers any absolute guarantees. And some analysts insist that patients are not yet safe from malfunctioning microchips.

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