Y2K concerns: Is it better to have too much or too little?

LOS ANGELES -- The early fears about the Year 2000 computer problem featured all sorts of machines driven haywire by their inability to read dates in the new year: computer networks that control power, water and phone systems might freeze; railroads, airlines and trucks might be idled as dispatch and traffic safety systems crash, and the financial universe, from stock markets to payroll systems to automated teller machines, might go on the blink.

That was before tens of billions of dollars were spent on computer repairs and upgrades. Now, a chorus of regulators, Year 2000 project managers and other authorities warn that Americans fearing the worst may end up inflicting more serious damage on themselves, their neighbors and the economy than anything the computers do.

Planning experts say those scenarios could include bank runs, hoarding of food and gasoline, fires caused by misuse of newly acquired wood stoves and generators, and a rise in gun violence stemming from the surge in firearm sales to those fearing civil unrest. "As it becomes clear our national infrastructure will hold, overreaction becomes one of the biggest remaining problems," said John Koskinen, chairman of the President's Commission on Year 2000 Conversion. The challenge is to keep the computer repair work going and prudent preparations for disruptions on track while calming the most nervous citizens. While surveys show most Americans do not expect their lives to be severely disrupted, a significant minority say they are planning big investments of time or money to protect themselves. And the American Red Cross advises the public, as a precaution, to have enough food and other staples on hand to endure disruptions of several days to a week. The Year 2000 project committee of the National Retail Federation, endorsing the Red Cross recommendation, has called for retailers and manufacturers to develop campaigns aimed at getting consumers to stock up gradually rather than trying to do so in the last few days of 1999. But the group declined to provide any examples of the kind of supplies it thought citizens should stock, fearing that being so specific would be too alarming. "Nobody wins if the public freaks out," said Cathy Hotka, the information technology specialist at the federation, a Washington trade group that includes virtually every major retailing company and trade association except Wal-Mart, the nation's largest retailer. "If the public reacts badly, you could take a potentially minor situation and make it a nightmare." Some sectors, like the banking industry, began addressing public fears months ago. The Federal Reserve, which supplies cash to the banking system, took the lead by announcing its intention to print $50 billion in extra currency -- lifting the total in circulation to $200 billion -- to assure consumers that banks will have plenty of paper for those who want to have extra cash on hand before the end of the year. Individual banks and industry associations have sponsored a wide variety of advertising suggesting that shifting money to the mattress leaves customers wide open to losing it to theft, fires and scam artists, not to mention the temptation to fritter it away on unnecessary luxuries. Some symbolic gestures have already been announced as well. Jane F. Garvey, head of the Federal Aviation Administration, has promised to be flying on New Year's Eve as a show of faith in the air traffic control system. British Airways announced that nearly all of its senior executives would also be aloft. Surveys show that almost half the nation's local governments have not started on Year 2000 repairs and contingency planning and that many small businesses lag just as badly. Multinational companies are bracing for disruptions in Russia and a number of Asian countries where Year 2000 work has been a low priority. Where the work has been done, at home or abroad, testing remains crucial because experience shows that computer system repairs inevitably introduce unforeseen glitches. Thus, President Clinton's only remarks on Year 2000 in his State of the Union address homed in on the need to keep working to reduce the risks. Koskinen says complacency is still at least as big a concern as overreaction. "For some people, a certain amount of panic would help," Koskinen said. The growing questions about behavior management highlight a paradox that computer programmers were among the first to realize: the Year 2000 computer problem, also known as the Millennium Bug and Y2K, probably should have been called something like the Pogo Syndrome after the old comic strip that observed, "We have met the enemy, and he is us." After all, humans seeded the Year 2000 problem into the technology landscape by using just two digits in programming dates, such as 99 for 1999, to save expensive memory in the 1960s and 1970s. Early on, computer workers began warning that some machines and software would malfunction because they would read 00 as 1900 instead of 2000 or as no date at all. But all too human foibles like sloth, greed and unfounded optimism that someone else -- or new intelligent machines - - would take care of the Year 2000 problem allowed it to grow into an expensive, potentially deadly global challenge. Now, as the race to minimize the risk enters its last months, the Year 2000 glitch may test people's trust in one another as much as the reliability of their machines. Do they believe that the repair work has been sound and that most of what is left to be done will be finished? Will workers have the skills and dedication to overcome whatever computer malfunctions do occur? Will citizens be neighborly, rather than selfish? Will political and business leaders step in effectively at the right moments? A tiny minority is already investing heavily in the belief that the answer to these questions is mostly no. Year 2000 alarmists, religious groups that see the computer problem as a preordained divine punishment and survivalists fleeing for rural fortresses are producing measurable bounces in the sale of dehydrated foods, wood- burning stoves, home power generators and other goods at the fringes of the normal economy. More telling though is the number of Americans saying they are considering moves that would clearly be unnecessary if the nation's computer networks end up being as reliable as regulators and industry leaders are projecting. Polls show that around 10 percent of citizens expect to withdraw most or all of their money from banks. A Gallup poll in December found that 17 percent expected to buy either a generator or a wood stove. Some consultants involved in community preparedness groups say those numbers are likely to rise sharply. "It's reasonable to assume the population will get very nervous," said Douglass Carmichael, a Washington-based consultant who lectures community groups that public information on Year 2000 progress is too unreliable to justify putting off building substantial food stockpiles and other "safety nets." Dealing with mass nervousness is more art than science. Consultants and government officials preach that the best way to calm nerves is to make sure that customers and consumers are inundated with the details of the work being done to reduce risks. And many of those organizing on the community level agree. "Statements have to be out there for people to jump on and research," said Margo King, one of a group of organizers who have helped make Boulder, Colo., a pacesetter in local preparedness planning. But John Steiner, King's husband, adds that even with more information, many people will retain doubts that could prime them for panic. "On Vietnam, we listened to the people in charge for a long time and everything was going well, and then it wasn't," Steiner said. "The question is what is appropriate contingency planning if things don't turn out as we hope." While those like Steiner and King crave more details about repairs, most people are apparently not worried enough to listen. Chase Manhattan Bank officials say consumer fears about the banking system leveled off at about 25 percent in the bank's monthly surveys in the last half of 1998, convincing them that it was too soon to publish extensive information about its Year 2000 work -- lest it be interpreted as an ominous sign rather than reassurance. One way to head off nervousness may be to encourage those most likely to be worried later this year to go ahead and acquire now the supplies that would make them comfortable. "There's sufficient information for people to say there's a substantial risk of disruption," said Charles Halpern, president of the Nathan E. Cummings Foundation, a New York-based foundation that has been providing funds for community preparedness efforts and lobbying other foundations to get involved in Year 2000 work. Halpern wants leaders from President Clinton on down to talk more often and more forcefully about Year 2000 risks.

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